TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#301 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 08, 2005 12:31 am

It is looking the best it has ever looked. A deep area of convection has formed over the LLC. With banding starting to form.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
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superfly

#302 Postby superfly » Mon Aug 08, 2005 12:41 am

I wouldn't exactly call that banding. Its western side is still naked.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#303 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 08, 2005 12:41 am

You can also see on the other night time satellite that the LLC is becoming much stronger.
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elysium

#304 Postby elysium » Mon Aug 08, 2005 12:56 am

It looks like Irene has stalled in warmer water and that the sheer is lessening. What the NHC is forecasting is for Irene to move through the gap created between the eastern and western ridge before the two ridges bridge. If Irene can slow down or stall without moving northward into the gap and allow the gap to bridge, she would be under a large ridge extending from the eastern atlantic all the way to the GOM.

If Irene continues moving W.N.W. into the gap, she again would likely stall out and meander under the building ridge. It just doesn't seem likely that the weakness will be sufficient enough to induce recurvature. That issue may be moot if she stalls out now which is what may be happening. At the very least her forward motion has slowed considerably. And don't discount erratic motion at this jucture. This too is possible. If in fact this is a stall or considerable slowdown, it may complicate the official forecast indicating that Irene will recurve out into the open sea to fish.
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#305 Postby hicksta » Mon Aug 08, 2005 1:02 am

Hmm those waves to the south of her raise an eyebrowl.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#306 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 08, 2005 1:05 am

God darn shear flating out the western side again....Come on Irene wrap around in bomb fast. Form a strong upper high. Push that upper low into Europe if need be.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#307 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 08, 2005 1:11 am

This map shows the shear down 10 to 20 knots. But the Cdo is getting sheared to the East again?

I would think that this would of pumped enough Laten heat by now to builld a upper high over it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
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#308 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 08, 2005 1:30 am

Irene should make it now.

The center flare is over the LLC.

The convection has banded to a mild "S" shape.


With nothing but warmer waters ahead it should make it.


I think it has veered more west again...
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#309 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 08, 2005 2:15 am

The freaking shear is down to 10 to 15 knots over the cyclone. With a 10 to 20 knot decrease. Why in the heck is the cdo still getting blown off? That seem favable enough to me.

Why on earth is it not staying?
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gkrangers

#310 Postby gkrangers » Mon Aug 08, 2005 2:45 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The freaking shear is down to 10 to 15 knots over the cyclone. With a 10 to 20 knot decrease. Why in the heck is the cdo still getting blown off? That seem favable enough to me.

Why on earth is it not staying?
Because its getting sheared, duh. The shear map may not be accurate.
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#311 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 5:11 am

At 4:45am CDT, Irene's center was at 21.8N/49.4W. I can see it quite clearly on the first visible image. It's separated from the convection and still moving to the WNW. Absolutely, positively, Irene is a TD. No question about it. Time to get ready for work. I'll fire up McIdas and snap some good images today.
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#312 Postby WindRunner » Mon Aug 08, 2005 6:26 am

Interesting how the NHC track is shifted back to the west at 5am compared to the 5pm track yesterday.
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#313 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 6:35 am

Ok, I'm at work now. Here's a McIdas image of Irene. As you can see, a fairly tight low-level swirl but no convection anywhere around it:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene31.gif
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#314 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Aug 08, 2005 7:26 am

I think Irene is about to be history today...

The reason why this system has hung around in this extremely hostile environment, when others wouldn't have done it, is because since the very beginning the system had a large/broad circulation/envelope. Each day that passes, the system's LLC is growing smaller in size. It's now showing signs of becoming a mere vortex with no deep convection within 6-12 hours, if not sooner.

It really shouldn't come in as a suprise if that happens, because the possibility has been mentioned endlessly...
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#315 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:14 am

Since the system began to show signs of becoming sheared apart, the possibility of dissipation or degradation has always being in the NHC's mouth. Thereafter, it won't be a surprise to see Irene go or to see it burst once again. As always, a waiting game!
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#316 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:20 am

It is the saddest tropical storm I've seen...
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#317 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:23 am

Hyperstorm wrote:I think Irene is about to be history today...

The reason why this system has hung around in this extremely hostile environment, when others wouldn't have done it, is because since the very beginning the system had a large/broad circulation/envelope. Each day that passes, the system's LLC is growing smaller in size. It's now showing signs of becoming a mere vortex with no deep convection within 6-12 hours, if not sooner.

It really shouldn't come in as a suprise if that happens, because the possibility has been mentioned endlessly...


Actually it looks like the center has tightend up to me . If it were going to dissapte I think it would being opening up. I think since it has fought the conditions for so long, it's more likely to survive. That being said, it looks like crap now without most of it's convection.
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#318 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:31 am

I notice the new model data coming out of the NHC identifies the system as Tropical Depression Irene, so they are going to finally downgrade it.
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#319 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:42 am

wxman57 wrote:I notice the new model data coming out of the NHC identifies the system as Tropical Depression Irene, so they are going to finally downgrade it.


That sure makes sense after looking at the satellite presentation of this system!!! I haven't zoomed in on it or looped it, but it sure doesn't look too healthy this am. She really needs to get to a better environment if she is to survive.
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Scorpion

#320 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:58 am

Poor poor Irene. Never had a chance :cry: .
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