TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Astro_man92]

Grrr why did it weaken? It is the weakest storm yet

[storms in NC]

still looks like it is moving west to me. and I just got new glasses lol

[gkrangers]

Grrr why did it weaken? It is the weakest storm yet

vertical shear....upper level winds aren't conducive for organization. When convection (thunderstorms) form, they grow in height...but since the winds way up high are strong, they are blowing the convection away from the center.

[WeatherEmperor]

still looks like it is moving west to me. and I just got new glasses lol

hey do you have any good sat loops so I can see myself. It seems for me at least, that the NHC Floater is very jumpy at the moment.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

18:00z Model Guidance.

[Astro_man92]

Grrr why did it weaken? It is the weakest storm yet

vertical shear....upper level winds aren't conducive for organization. When convection (thunderstorms) form, they grow in height...but since the winds way up high are strong, they are blowing the convection away from the center.

well that stinks


is this a shear map because if it is then Irene is getting hit by some weak shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[gkrangers]

Grrr why did it weaken? It is the weakest storm yet

vertical shear....upper level winds aren't conducive for organization. When convection (thunderstorms) form, they grow in height...but since the winds way up high are strong, they are blowing the convection away from the center.

well that stinks


is this a shear map because if it is then Irene is getting hit by some weak shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

The shear doesn't seem to be particularly strong, but its there..out of the NW. I don't think a weak storm like Irene can intensify much, as long as there is shear. I think the shear would really need to die off to see intensification. Could be wrong tho.

[deltadog03]

yeah, and if it pushes westward...the shear does decrease a bunch...

[WeatherEmperor]

The Floater seems to be working fine for me now. Correct me if I am wrong but over the past few hours it really does look like Irene is heading ever so slightly North of due West. Am I seeing this correctly?

<RICKY>

[wxmann_91]

Grrr why did it weaken? It is the weakest storm yet

vertical shear....upper level winds aren't conducive for organization. When convection (thunderstorms) form, they grow in height...but since the winds way up high are strong, they are blowing the convection away from the center.

well that stinks


is this a shear map because if it is then Irene is getting hit by some weak shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Don't look at the Shear Tendency map, look at this one.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Look at the orange lines that have the arrows (not the yellow ones that have numbers). These lines represent the upper-level wind direction. Tight clusters of them usually signal strong directional shear (change in wind direction with height). The yellow lines represent the amount of speed shear (change in wind speed with height). The 20 kt rule is used with speed shear, not directional shear, but both can be deadly to a TC. Anyway, I could be wrong as these are just my observations, so now I am waiting for a pro to clarify if I am right.

[Ivanhater]

i think irene is playing the song "coming to america", maybe its just me, lol

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That map shows shear that normally would be very favable for development. In also there doe's seem to be convection reforming closer to the center. Lets see if that could be a sign of things to come.

[seaswing]

Maybe a stupid question but what is xtrap?

Thanks.

[TS Zack]

Shear is not really doing anymore damage to this system. The storm is beginning to get its convection back and closer to the center.

Dry Air is the only inhibiting factor at the moment and that is beginning to push towards the South. Give it a chance to get a little further West and conditions should rapidly improve for development.

[gkrangers]

Maybe a stupid question but what is xtrap?

Thanks.

The extrapolated motion of the current center.

Its just taking the current motion, and drawing a line straight out. Saying if it continued its current motion, thats where it would go. Its not a model or forecast.

[seaswing]

Makes good sense. Thanks!

[sma10]

It seems to me that the main difference between the Euro and UK solutions is that the Euro keeps Irene very weak, thus she is guided more westerly by the low level steering, misses the trough, and then heads toward the U.S. coast, probably strengthening in the process.

Meanwhile, the UK develops Irene a little bit quicker making her a more deeper system, and guides her towards a recurve near Bermuda.

Therefore, the quicker Irene can develop (if she develops at all) the much higher likelihood of a recurve. I mention all this because if the current building up of convection happening to Irene right now is evident of a strengthening trend, it COULD potentially be good news for those hoping for an early recurve.

[clfenwi]

Cue Monty Python (slightly recast):

[clang]
Cartmaster: Bring out your dead!

GFDL: Here's one.

Cart master: Ninepence.

Irene: I'm not dead!

...

[wxmann_91]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Looking at the latest sat loop (be careful it's Java), new convection is rapidly developing over the center. I'm actually thinking now Irene has a chance, albeit a slim one.

[Astro_man92]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Looking at the latest sat loop (be careful it's Java), new convection is rapidly developing over the center. I'm actually thinking now Irene has a chance, albeit a slim one.

ya she is looking better by the minute