TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- Astro_man92
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vertical shear....upper level winds aren't conducive for organization. When convection (thunderstorms) form, they grow in height...but since the winds way up high are strong, they are blowing the convection away from the center.Astro_man92 wrote:Grrr why did it weaken? It is the weakest storm yet
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- cycloneye
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18:00z Model Guidance.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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- Astro_man92
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gkrangers wrote:vertical shear....upper level winds aren't conducive for organization. When convection (thunderstorms) form, they grow in height...but since the winds way up high are strong, they are blowing the convection away from the center.Astro_man92 wrote:Grrr why did it weaken? It is the weakest storm yet
well that stinks

is this a shear map because if it is then Irene is getting hit by some weak shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
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The shear doesn't seem to be particularly strong, but its there..out of the NW. I don't think a weak storm like Irene can intensify much, as long as there is shear. I think the shear would really need to die off to see intensification. Could be wrong tho.Astro_man92 wrote:gkrangers wrote:vertical shear....upper level winds aren't conducive for organization. When convection (thunderstorms) form, they grow in height...but since the winds way up high are strong, they are blowing the convection away from the center.Astro_man92 wrote:Grrr why did it weaken? It is the weakest storm yet
well that stinks
is this a shear map because if it is then Irene is getting hit by some weak shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
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- deltadog03
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- wxmann_91
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Astro_man92 wrote:gkrangers wrote:vertical shear....upper level winds aren't conducive for organization. When convection (thunderstorms) form, they grow in height...but since the winds way up high are strong, they are blowing the convection away from the center.Astro_man92 wrote:Grrr why did it weaken? It is the weakest storm yet
well that stinks
is this a shear map because if it is then Irene is getting hit by some weak shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Don't look at the Shear Tendency map, look at this one.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
Look at the orange lines that have the arrows (not the yellow ones that have numbers). These lines represent the upper-level wind direction. Tight clusters of them usually signal strong directional shear (change in wind direction with height). The yellow lines represent the amount of speed shear (change in wind speed with height). The 20 kt rule is used with speed shear, not directional shear, but both can be deadly to a TC. Anyway, I could be wrong as these are just my observations, so now I am waiting for a pro to clarify if I am right.
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Shear is not really doing anymore damage to this system. The storm is beginning to get its convection back and closer to the center.
Dry Air is the only inhibiting factor at the moment and that is beginning to push towards the South. Give it a chance to get a little further West and conditions should rapidly improve for development.
Dry Air is the only inhibiting factor at the moment and that is beginning to push towards the South. Give it a chance to get a little further West and conditions should rapidly improve for development.
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It seems to me that the main difference between the Euro and UK solutions is that the Euro keeps Irene very weak, thus she is guided more westerly by the low level steering, misses the trough, and then heads toward the U.S. coast, probably strengthening in the process.
Meanwhile, the UK develops Irene a little bit quicker making her a more deeper system, and guides her towards a recurve near Bermuda.
Therefore, the quicker Irene can develop (if she develops at all) the much higher likelihood of a recurve. I mention all this because if the current building up of convection happening to Irene right now is evident of a strengthening trend, it COULD potentially be good news for those hoping for an early recurve.
Meanwhile, the UK develops Irene a little bit quicker making her a more deeper system, and guides her towards a recurve near Bermuda.
Therefore, the quicker Irene can develop (if she develops at all) the much higher likelihood of a recurve. I mention all this because if the current building up of convection happening to Irene right now is evident of a strengthening trend, it COULD potentially be good news for those hoping for an early recurve.
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- wxmann_91
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
Looking at the latest sat loop (be careful it's Java), new convection is rapidly developing over the center. I'm actually thinking now Irene has a chance, albeit a slim one.
Looking at the latest sat loop (be careful it's Java), new convection is rapidly developing over the center. I'm actually thinking now Irene has a chance, albeit a slim one.
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- Astro_man92
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wxmann_91 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
Looking at the latest sat loop (be careful it's Java), new convection is rapidly developing over the center. I'm actually thinking now Irene has a chance, albeit a slim one.
ya she is looking better by the minute
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