rockyman wrote:Chad...the weatherperson from CNN...just said that 5 of the computer models turn it (Irene) to the left and strengthen it.
Apparently the CNN guy actually reviewed these models BEFORE we saw them. I'm somewhat impressed.

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BensonTCwatcher wrote:Perhaps I shoudl not have said ANY height. It was in high shear and never built up enough height to follow the model guidance. I agree that from here forward it will respond to ridge/weakness. I can't see a W movement into FL or the GOM at all
Derek Ortt wrote:as I said before, a weaker storm is far more likely to move out to sea than a stronger storm. Look at the deep layer steering with the northerly upper level flow affecting the cyclone and look at the BAM solutions. Previously it was right that a weaker storm would move more westerly since the upper flow was SW, but now its NW, making that idea incorrect
WeatherEmperor wrote:BensonTCwatcher wrote:Perhaps I shoudl not have said ANY height. It was in high shear and never built up enough height to follow the model guidance. I agree that from here forward it will respond to ridge/weakness. I can't see a W movement into FL or the GOM at all
careful. A couple of days ago almost none of us here even thought that Irene would keep on moving west and west and west as she has been doing and it still materialized. Anything can happen with this thing now. Its only a matter of time before her true intentions are shown.
<RICKY>
THERE IS REASONABLE SUPPORT FROM THE D+8 MEAN FOR A MORE
PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE OVER THE E COAST THAN THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED
00Z GFS. THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN HAD SUPPORTED MORE RIDGING OVER
THE E COAST...AND NOW THE 06Z GFS AND DGEX ARE EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THEIR RIDGING ON DAYS 6/MON AND 7/TUES THAN THE
00Z GFS. WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE E...A LESS PROGRESSIVE
H5 TROF IS PREFERRED IN THE NWRN/N CNTRL CONUS THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PD COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS.
Scorpion wrote:Moving WSW I think(260).
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