TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[rockyman]

Chad...the weatherperson from CNN...just said that 5 of the computer models turn it (Irene) to the left and strengthen it.

Apparently the CNN guy actually reviewed these models BEFORE we saw them. I'm somewhat impressed.

[WeatherEmperor]

Perhaps I shoudl not have said ANY height. It was in high shear and never built up enough height to follow the model guidance. I agree that from here forward it will respond to ridge/weakness. I can't see a W movement into FL or the GOM at all

careful. A couple of days ago almost none of us here even thought that Irene would keep on moving west and west and west as she has been doing and it still materialized. Anything can happen with this thing now. Its only a matter of time before her true intentions are shown.

<RICKY>

[DESTRUCTION5]

as I said before, a weaker storm is far more likely to move out to sea than a stronger storm. Look at the deep layer steering with the northerly upper level flow affecting the cyclone and look at the BAM solutions. Previously it was right that a weaker storm would move more westerly since the upper flow was SW, but now its NW, making that idea incorrect

Ortt I think what the models are seeing is this wave/TD streghthening along with the Bermuda high..Same event we saw with Jeanne...

[Derek Ortt]

we are currently working on the forecast now. I am not the morning forecaster. will let everyone know when it is completed though

[WeatherEmperor]

we are currently working on the forecast now. I am not the morning forecaster. will let everyone know when it is completed though

hurry up. im interested in reading your analysis of things.

<RICKY>

[BensonTCwatcher]

Perhaps I shoudl not have said ANY height. It was in high shear and never built up enough height to follow the model guidance. I agree that from here forward it will respond to ridge/weakness. I can't see a W movement into FL or the GOM at all

careful. A couple of days ago almost none of us here even thought that Irene would keep on moving west and west and west as she has been doing and it still materialized. Anything can happen with this thing now. Its only a matter of time before her true intentions are shown.

<RICKY>

Heck I can ALWAYS be wrong, but I did think it would stay west ward up until now. I did officially flip flop over the weekend becuase I did see it recurving more. This is where I thought it would turn or dissipate. I am likely to be wrong about that.... I will say that nothing currently or anticiapted in what I see woudl steer it into the GOM etc. but hey weather changes no?

[Scorpion]

Yes this could pull a Jeanne, catch everyone by surprise.

[Weatherboy1]

THERE IS REASONABLE SUPPORT FROM THE D+8 MEAN FOR A MORE
PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE OVER THE E COAST THAN THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED
00Z GFS. THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN HAD SUPPORTED MORE RIDGING OVER
THE E COAST...AND NOW THE 06Z GFS AND DGEX ARE EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THEIR RIDGING ON DAYS 6/MON AND 7/TUES THAN THE
00Z GFS. WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE E...A LESS PROGRESSIVE
H5 TROF IS PREFERRED IN THE NWRN/N CNTRL CONUS THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PD COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS.

This is from the HPC's preliminary discussion on the overall setup for the next week. To sum up, it talks about the eastern CONUS ridge maintaining its strength longer than anticipated. And one thing you're starting to see at the tail end of the UKMET, GFDL and tropical models (BAMs, LBAR, etc.) is a hook back to the left/west around day 5. My guess is that this is in response to the ridge potentially remaining stronger than previously thought. It's the TREND in the models that matters, not the exact forecast 5 days out (since those forecasts aren't all that accurate), and in this case, the trend should at least have us looking more closely at a potential US threat. Too early to say, and maybe this slight shift will reverse itself. By Thursday afternon, I think we'll have a much better idea if there is any threat and if so, roughly where it might be.

-Mike

[deltadog03]

WOW...just woke up...someones shifted to the left...hmmm...ie models..

[BensonTCwatcher]

Here is good picture of the ridge building.




http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

[gatorcane]

it's building alright...

[vbhoutex]

With all steering levels near TD Irene going Westerly, it appears to me that she will indeed miss the weakness in the ridge. The question becomes, will she even exist after today as anything more than a wave? Still many possibilities for her and it is almost impossible to determine which one will happen.

[wxman57]

Well, I'm looking at an extremely high-res McIdas loop and I cannot find an LLC. All low cloud elements seem to be moving away from what used to be the center. I've identified cloud movement with the red arrows. I do not believe that there is any LLC beneath that area of squalls. No low cloud motion supports it. That's not to say that a center coldn't reform under the convection IF the convection can persist for another 12-24 hours

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene55.gif

[Ivanhater]

ok i just woke up, last night, it was moving due west, whats it doing now?

[Scorpion]

Moving WSW I think(260).

[storms in NC]

Moving WSW I think(260).

I don't even see a center so how can you say it is moving wsw. Not saing it's not. From what I have read and seen it is a open wave now. I may be very wrong. But who know with this storm. We may have to wait for 2-3 days now to see what it might do. If any thing

[wxman57]

I'm looking at upper-level winds in advance of Irene. The very low-level flow would indicate a turn to the NW and N west of Bermuda in a few days, as Derek has been saying. If I plot mean 700mb-400mb wind streamlines, they show a ridge building along the east coast.

What this means is that if Irene remains a sheared TD or wave, then it would most likely turn northward well east of the U.S. coast as per the current NHC track. However, if Irene were to intensify significantly, it may well head more to the west, possibly threatening the east U.S. coast.

It's quite unusual when the low-level flow would indicate a northerly turn and the mid-upper level flow steers a system more westerly. Normally it's just the reverse.

But I definitely think Irene is now a tropical wave. The NHC will likely acknowledge the QS pass showing no LLC and decide NOT to downgrade it at this time. They will probably want to watch it all day on visible imagery and possibly wait for the PM QS pass to confirm that the LLC has dissipated before declaring it so.

[sma10]

Assuming Irene does not become a complete and utter mess, at what point in time can we begin thinking about a recon trip?

[CronkPSU]

new NHC discussion is up

[WeatherEmperor]

new NHC discussion is up

forgive me for being stupid guys but who is forecaster Korty? I have never heard of him/her

<RICKY>