TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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Hard to locate any center with this thing. My guess is that the MLC is located at the northern end of the southern most blob which is developing some nice convection. I don't see any type of low level inflow on the southern side of all that convection. We will more than likely have to wait until the first morning visibles and the next quickscat to tell if this has redeveloped a new LLC. As a note this is just to my amatuer eyes. You probably have a better grip on this than I do Matt.
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WHXX04 KWBC 100521
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE 09L
INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 10
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 22.1 55.4 270./ 7.0
6 23.2 56.4 319./13.8
12 24.0 57.5 303./12.8
18 25.0 58.9 306./16.2
24 25.5 60.3 292./13.9
30 26.1 61.9 289./15.7
36 26.5 63.4 286./13.5
42 26.9 64.4 292./ 9.8
48 27.3 65.2 297./ 8.7
54 27.9 65.9 311./ 8.4
60 28.6 66.5 316./ 8.3
66 29.0 67.0 309./ 6.0
72 29.5 67.3 331./ 5.8
78 29.9 67.5 339./ 4.1
84 30.2 67.6 332./ 3.3
90 30.4 67.9 307./ 3.5
96 30.6 68.1 316./ 2.6
102 30.9 68.5 302./ 4.4
108 31.3 68.8 329./ 4.9
114 31.8 69.1 329./ 5.7
120 32.5 69.2 349./ 6.3
126 33.2 69.1 5./ 7.7
Hey, hey, two runs in a row of not killing off Irene... it's a trend!
Further west than last run overall , but further north in the last 24 hr of the forecast.
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE 09L
INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 10
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 22.1 55.4 270./ 7.0
6 23.2 56.4 319./13.8
12 24.0 57.5 303./12.8
18 25.0 58.9 306./16.2
24 25.5 60.3 292./13.9
30 26.1 61.9 289./15.7
36 26.5 63.4 286./13.5
42 26.9 64.4 292./ 9.8
48 27.3 65.2 297./ 8.7
54 27.9 65.9 311./ 8.4
60 28.6 66.5 316./ 8.3
66 29.0 67.0 309./ 6.0
72 29.5 67.3 331./ 5.8
78 29.9 67.5 339./ 4.1
84 30.2 67.6 332./ 3.3
90 30.4 67.9 307./ 3.5
96 30.6 68.1 316./ 2.6
102 30.9 68.5 302./ 4.4
108 31.3 68.8 329./ 4.9
114 31.8 69.1 329./ 5.7
120 32.5 69.2 349./ 6.3
126 33.2 69.1 5./ 7.7
Hey, hey, two runs in a row of not killing off Irene... it's a trend!
Further west than last run overall , but further north in the last 24 hr of the forecast.
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ECMWF appears to me to be slightly right of the previous run... can't tell for sure though
http://tinyurl.com/c3jpn
http://tinyurl.com/c3jpn
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-
- Category 1
- Posts: 423
- Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 4:03 pm
- Location: 25 05' 80 26'
- Contact:
The subtropical ridge to the east has fully bridged with the ridge to the west of Irene. It is my opinion that the eastern ridge is much stronger than is being computated by the models, and has effectively worked to strengthen the western ridge, which too is underestimated by the models.
Irene is underneath the western ridge, which is really now just an extention of the subtropical ridge. Notice how crushingly the west side of the subtropical ridge has pulverized the ULL off the coast of central and north Florida. This is telling you that by whatsoever definition, this ridge is no wise weak in any form. This is a very strong, powerful ridge setting up that will steer Irene under strong westward flow for at least 7 to 10 days.
Most of the prognostic models have Irene moving toward Bermuda in 48 hrs. as she is being forecasted by them to move up into a weakness between the western and eastern ridge. Every model has this scenario registered into its data base, and up until now this wouldn't necessarily been an error. In fact, until clear cut evidence existed that Irene was under the steering currents of the western ridge or that the ridge had bridged east to west, such an assumption would be correct. The official synoptical layout by the NWS has a weakness between the 2 ridges, not showing full bridging having taken place.
What is readily apparent now, however, is that not only has Irene come under the influence of the western anti-cyclonic, but that that anti-cyclonic has successfully fully bridged with the subtropical ridge. Furthermore, this ridge is intensifying much more resolutely than depicted by the models. This is happening as I am writing this hour's posted thread.
What is taking place right now is of such great significance that no adequate description can be rendered to impart upon you the true veracity of its weight in importance. The scenario unfolding is nothing less than Andrew's second coming save one, and only one additional detail not yet fully computated, but nevertheless a very important detail; the forward speed values as Irene shakes off the inertia and begins steaming westward.
If Irene can accelerate forward fast enough under the strengthening ridge, she becomes as predictable as Hurricane Andrew itself was in the exact same location. A rough estimate allows for east coast landfall in 5 days under a faster forward speed. If Irene is, as is being asserted, fully under the westward flow of the western ridge which is bridged now with the subtropical, Irene must move westward for 5 days, shifting between due west and W.N.W. At around day 7 there are some indications that a second trough will move off the east coast if the ridge is weak on the western periphery. Now, it is highly questionable that this trough will be able to exert any influence simply due to the strength of the ridge. However, if Irene moves forward at less than 15 mph, that would delay her arrival on the east coast by possibly 2 days, and the slower forward speed would also indicate a weaker ridge. If, on the other hand, Irene can maintain a forward speed of 15 mph or better, not only would that portend a stronger ridge and therefore stronger westward steering currents, but also she would hands down beat the trough. Remember, here we are talking about a second trough 7 days down the road, and not the weakness or gap in the ridge. Irene is well past that already.
Irene must pick up forward speed. If she does so we likely have Andrew's second coming. If Irene doesn't pick up forward speed, we may have nothing but a fish and Irene might recurve out to open sea.
Irene is underneath the western ridge, which is really now just an extention of the subtropical ridge. Notice how crushingly the west side of the subtropical ridge has pulverized the ULL off the coast of central and north Florida. This is telling you that by whatsoever definition, this ridge is no wise weak in any form. This is a very strong, powerful ridge setting up that will steer Irene under strong westward flow for at least 7 to 10 days.
Most of the prognostic models have Irene moving toward Bermuda in 48 hrs. as she is being forecasted by them to move up into a weakness between the western and eastern ridge. Every model has this scenario registered into its data base, and up until now this wouldn't necessarily been an error. In fact, until clear cut evidence existed that Irene was under the steering currents of the western ridge or that the ridge had bridged east to west, such an assumption would be correct. The official synoptical layout by the NWS has a weakness between the 2 ridges, not showing full bridging having taken place.
What is readily apparent now, however, is that not only has Irene come under the influence of the western anti-cyclonic, but that that anti-cyclonic has successfully fully bridged with the subtropical ridge. Furthermore, this ridge is intensifying much more resolutely than depicted by the models. This is happening as I am writing this hour's posted thread.
What is taking place right now is of such great significance that no adequate description can be rendered to impart upon you the true veracity of its weight in importance. The scenario unfolding is nothing less than Andrew's second coming save one, and only one additional detail not yet fully computated, but nevertheless a very important detail; the forward speed values as Irene shakes off the inertia and begins steaming westward.
If Irene can accelerate forward fast enough under the strengthening ridge, she becomes as predictable as Hurricane Andrew itself was in the exact same location. A rough estimate allows for east coast landfall in 5 days under a faster forward speed. If Irene is, as is being asserted, fully under the westward flow of the western ridge which is bridged now with the subtropical, Irene must move westward for 5 days, shifting between due west and W.N.W. At around day 7 there are some indications that a second trough will move off the east coast if the ridge is weak on the western periphery. Now, it is highly questionable that this trough will be able to exert any influence simply due to the strength of the ridge. However, if Irene moves forward at less than 15 mph, that would delay her arrival on the east coast by possibly 2 days, and the slower forward speed would also indicate a weaker ridge. If, on the other hand, Irene can maintain a forward speed of 15 mph or better, not only would that portend a stronger ridge and therefore stronger westward steering currents, but also she would hands down beat the trough. Remember, here we are talking about a second trough 7 days down the road, and not the weakness or gap in the ridge. Irene is well past that already.
Irene must pick up forward speed. If she does so we likely have Andrew's second coming. If Irene doesn't pick up forward speed, we may have nothing but a fish and Irene might recurve out to open sea.
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UKMET text guidance... it has reverted to a recurvature scenario in the late term.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 54.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.08.2005 22.2N 54.6W WEAK
12UTC 10.08.2005 22.4N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2005 23.6N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2005 24.7N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2005 26.2N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2005 28.6N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2005 29.7N 64.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2005 31.0N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2005 32.1N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2005 33.6N 63.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.08.2005 35.2N 65.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.08.2005 36.4N 63.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2005 38.9N 62.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 54.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.08.2005 22.2N 54.6W WEAK
12UTC 10.08.2005 22.4N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2005 23.6N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2005 24.7N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2005 26.2N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2005 28.6N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2005 29.7N 64.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2005 31.0N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2005 32.1N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2005 33.6N 63.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.08.2005 35.2N 65.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.08.2005 36.4N 63.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2005 38.9N 62.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
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WHXX01 KWBC 100643
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050810 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050810 0600 050810 1800 050811 0600 050811 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.4N 56.8W 23.0N 58.9W 23.8N 61.0W 25.0N 63.2W
BAMM 22.4N 56.8W 22.8N 59.1W 23.5N 61.4W 24.4N 63.6W
A98E 22.4N 56.8W 22.5N 59.0W 23.0N 61.3W 24.0N 63.7W
LBAR 22.4N 56.8W 22.5N 58.8W 23.4N 61.1W 24.3N 63.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050812 0600 050813 0600 050814 0600 050815 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.2N 65.2W 28.4N 68.4W 30.2N 71.2W 33.2N 73.3W
BAMM 25.3N 65.6W 26.7N 68.9W 27.8N 72.0W 29.4N 74.8W
A98E 25.4N 66.1W 26.8N 70.6W 28.4N 74.5W 30.4N 76.7W
LBAR 25.1N 65.3W 27.5N 68.7W 29.6N 70.8W 32.0N 71.9W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 59KTS 60KTS
DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 59KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.4N LONCUR = 56.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.4N LONM12 = 54.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.4N LONM24 = 52.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Models initialized with wind speed of 25 knots... in the 96-120 hr part of the forecast, more northerly components of motion than in previous runs...
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050810 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050810 0600 050810 1800 050811 0600 050811 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.4N 56.8W 23.0N 58.9W 23.8N 61.0W 25.0N 63.2W
BAMM 22.4N 56.8W 22.8N 59.1W 23.5N 61.4W 24.4N 63.6W
A98E 22.4N 56.8W 22.5N 59.0W 23.0N 61.3W 24.0N 63.7W
LBAR 22.4N 56.8W 22.5N 58.8W 23.4N 61.1W 24.3N 63.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050812 0600 050813 0600 050814 0600 050815 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.2N 65.2W 28.4N 68.4W 30.2N 71.2W 33.2N 73.3W
BAMM 25.3N 65.6W 26.7N 68.9W 27.8N 72.0W 29.4N 74.8W
A98E 25.4N 66.1W 26.8N 70.6W 28.4N 74.5W 30.4N 76.7W
LBAR 25.1N 65.3W 27.5N 68.7W 29.6N 70.8W 32.0N 71.9W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 59KTS 60KTS
DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 59KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.4N LONCUR = 56.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.4N LONM12 = 54.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.4N LONM24 = 52.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Models initialized with wind speed of 25 knots... in the 96-120 hr part of the forecast, more northerly components of motion than in previous runs...
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elysium wrote:The subtropical ridge to the east has fully bridged with the ridge to the west of Irene. It is my opinion that the eastern ridge is much stronger than is being computated by the models, and has effectively worked to strengthen the western ridge, which too is underestimated by the models.
Irene is underneath the western ridge, which is really now just an extention of the subtropical ridge. Notice how crushingly the west side of the subtropical ridge has pulverized the ULL off the coast of central and north Florida. This is telling you that by whatsoever definition, this ridge is no wise weak in any form. This is a very strong, powerful ridge setting up that will steer Irene under strong westward flow for at least 7 to 10 days.
Most of the prognostic models have Irene moving toward Bermuda in 48 hrs. as she is being forecasted by them to move up into a weakness between the western and eastern ridge. Every model has this scenario registered into its data base, and up until now this wouldn't necessarily been an error. In fact, until clear cut evidence existed that Irene was under the steering currents of the western ridge or that the ridge had bridged east to west, such an assumption would be correct. The official synoptical layout by the NWS has a weakness between the 2 ridges, not showing full bridging having taken place.
What is readily apparent now, however, is that not only has Irene come under the influence of the western anti-cyclonic, but that that anti-cyclonic has successfully fully bridged with the subtropical ridge. Furthermore, this ridge is intensifying much more resolutely than depicted by the models. This is happening as I am writing this hour's posted thread.
What is taking place right now is of such great significance that no adequate description can be rendered to impart upon you the true veracity of its weight in importance. The scenario unfolding is nothing less than Andrew's second coming save one, and only one additional detail not yet fully computated, but nevertheless a very important detail; the forward speed values as Irene shakes off the inertia and begins steaming westward.
If Irene can accelerate forward fast enough under the strengthening ridge, she becomes as predictable as Hurricane Andrew itself was in the exact same location. A rough estimate allows for east coast landfall in 5 days under a faster forward speed. If Irene is, as is being asserted, fully under the westward flow of the western ridge which is bridged now with the subtropical, Irene must move westward for 5 days, shifting between due west and W.N.W. At around day 7 there are some indications that a second trough will move off the east coast if the ridge is weak on the western periphery. Now, it is highly questionable that this trough will be able to exert any influence simply due to the strength of the ridge. However, if Irene moves forward at less than 15 mph, that would delay her arrival on the east coast by possibly 2 days, and the slower forward speed would also indicate a weaker ridge. If, on the other hand, Irene can maintain a forward speed of 15 mph or better, not only would that portend a stronger ridge and therefore stronger westward steering currents, but also she would hands down beat the trough. Remember, here we are talking about a second trough 7 days down the road, and not the weakness or gap in the ridge. Irene is well past that already.
Irene must pick up forward speed. If she does so we likely have Andrew's second coming. If Irene doesn't pick up forward speed, we may have nothing but a fish and Irene might recurve out to open sea.
Wow. A scenario like that would probably bring the storm directly to Biscayne Park, FL.
Fascinating description of Irene's future.
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- hurricanedude
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- Location: Virginia Beach, Virginia
- Contact:
Good flare-up. Storm started as huge wave but is now a small compact storm more capable of being boosted by August conditions.
Will track over 85* SST's in the next 24 hours...
Will track over 85* SST's in the next 24 hours...
Last edited by Sanibel on Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Look at that dry air finally being squeezed out of the Caribbean. I would expect the tropics to kick into high gear soon.
Look at that dry air finally being squeezed out of the Caribbean. I would expect the tropics to kick into high gear soon.
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