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FlSteel
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#1181 Postby FlSteel » Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:54 am

Hard to locate any center with this thing. My guess is that the MLC is located at the northern end of the southern most blob which is developing some nice convection. I don't see any type of low level inflow on the southern side of all that convection. We will more than likely have to wait until the first morning visibles and the next quickscat to tell if this has redeveloped a new LLC. As a note this is just to my amatuer eyes. You probably have a better grip on this than I do Matt.
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superfly

#1182 Postby superfly » Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:55 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I can see a center but its closer to 24/56....Convection has become much better organized.


There's nothing at 24/56. I see something around 22.7/55.2
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#1183 Postby FlSteel » Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:58 am

Is it just me or is that UL to Irene's NW pretty much collapsing. It looks like in a day or two Irene will be in a pretty moist area and it's fight with the dry air will be through. I have been looking at the WV imagery btw.
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#1184 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:02 am

Looking at SW IR, the circulation looks open on the southern semi-circle/slice.

Granted, convection is covering what would be the innermost part of it, but I would still expect to see some evidence of it... as always, keep watching...
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#1185 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:05 am

FlSteel wrote:Is it just me or is that UL to Irene's NW pretty much collapsing. It looks like in a day or two Irene will be in a pretty moist area and it's fight with the dry air will be through. I have been looking at the WV imagery btw.


Yeah, it does look like the upper low has filled.
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#1186 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:15 am

WHXX04 KWBC 100521
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.1 55.4 270./ 7.0
6 23.2 56.4 319./13.8
12 24.0 57.5 303./12.8
18 25.0 58.9 306./16.2
24 25.5 60.3 292./13.9
30 26.1 61.9 289./15.7
36 26.5 63.4 286./13.5
42 26.9 64.4 292./ 9.8
48 27.3 65.2 297./ 8.7
54 27.9 65.9 311./ 8.4
60 28.6 66.5 316./ 8.3
66 29.0 67.0 309./ 6.0
72 29.5 67.3 331./ 5.8
78 29.9 67.5 339./ 4.1
84 30.2 67.6 332./ 3.3
90 30.4 67.9 307./ 3.5
96 30.6 68.1 316./ 2.6
102 30.9 68.5 302./ 4.4
108 31.3 68.8 329./ 4.9
114 31.8 69.1 329./ 5.7
120 32.5 69.2 349./ 6.3
126 33.2 69.1 5./ 7.7


Hey, hey, two runs in a row of not killing off Irene... it's a trend!

Further west than last run overall , but further north in the last 24 hr of the forecast.
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#1187 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:21 am

ECMWF appears to me to be slightly right of the previous run... can't tell for sure though

http://tinyurl.com/c3jpn
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#1188 Postby KeyLargoDave » Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:23 am

Thanks for posting. That model speeds it up then slows it down starting in 48 hours. Interesting
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elysium

#1189 Postby elysium » Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:28 am

The subtropical ridge to the east has fully bridged with the ridge to the west of Irene. It is my opinion that the eastern ridge is much stronger than is being computated by the models, and has effectively worked to strengthen the western ridge, which too is underestimated by the models.

Irene is underneath the western ridge, which is really now just an extention of the subtropical ridge. Notice how crushingly the west side of the subtropical ridge has pulverized the ULL off the coast of central and north Florida. This is telling you that by whatsoever definition, this ridge is no wise weak in any form. This is a very strong, powerful ridge setting up that will steer Irene under strong westward flow for at least 7 to 10 days.

Most of the prognostic models have Irene moving toward Bermuda in 48 hrs. as she is being forecasted by them to move up into a weakness between the western and eastern ridge. Every model has this scenario registered into its data base, and up until now this wouldn't necessarily been an error. In fact, until clear cut evidence existed that Irene was under the steering currents of the western ridge or that the ridge had bridged east to west, such an assumption would be correct. The official synoptical layout by the NWS has a weakness between the 2 ridges, not showing full bridging having taken place.

What is readily apparent now, however, is that not only has Irene come under the influence of the western anti-cyclonic, but that that anti-cyclonic has successfully fully bridged with the subtropical ridge. Furthermore, this ridge is intensifying much more resolutely than depicted by the models. This is happening as I am writing this hour's posted thread.

What is taking place right now is of such great significance that no adequate description can be rendered to impart upon you the true veracity of its weight in importance. The scenario unfolding is nothing less than Andrew's second coming save one, and only one additional detail not yet fully computated, but nevertheless a very important detail; the forward speed values as Irene shakes off the inertia and begins steaming westward.

If Irene can accelerate forward fast enough under the strengthening ridge, she becomes as predictable as Hurricane Andrew itself was in the exact same location. A rough estimate allows for east coast landfall in 5 days under a faster forward speed. If Irene is, as is being asserted, fully under the westward flow of the western ridge which is bridged now with the subtropical, Irene must move westward for 5 days, shifting between due west and W.N.W. At around day 7 there are some indications that a second trough will move off the east coast if the ridge is weak on the western periphery. Now, it is highly questionable that this trough will be able to exert any influence simply due to the strength of the ridge. However, if Irene moves forward at less than 15 mph, that would delay her arrival on the east coast by possibly 2 days, and the slower forward speed would also indicate a weaker ridge. If, on the other hand, Irene can maintain a forward speed of 15 mph or better, not only would that portend a stronger ridge and therefore stronger westward steering currents, but also she would hands down beat the trough. Remember, here we are talking about a second trough 7 days down the road, and not the weakness or gap in the ridge. Irene is well past that already.

Irene must pick up forward speed. If she does so we likely have Andrew's second coming. If Irene doesn't pick up forward speed, we may have nothing but a fish and Irene might recurve out to open sea.
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#1190 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:42 am

UKMET text guidance... it has reverted to a recurvature scenario in the late term.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 54.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.08.2005 22.2N 54.6W WEAK
12UTC 10.08.2005 22.4N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2005 23.6N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2005 24.7N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2005 26.2N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2005 28.6N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2005 29.7N 64.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2005 31.0N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2005 32.1N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2005 33.6N 63.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.08.2005 35.2N 65.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.08.2005 36.4N 63.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2005 38.9N 62.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
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#1191 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:54 am

WHXX01 KWBC 100643
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050810 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050810 0600 050810 1800 050811 0600 050811 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.4N 56.8W 23.0N 58.9W 23.8N 61.0W 25.0N 63.2W
BAMM 22.4N 56.8W 22.8N 59.1W 23.5N 61.4W 24.4N 63.6W
A98E 22.4N 56.8W 22.5N 59.0W 23.0N 61.3W 24.0N 63.7W
LBAR 22.4N 56.8W 22.5N 58.8W 23.4N 61.1W 24.3N 63.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050812 0600 050813 0600 050814 0600 050815 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.2N 65.2W 28.4N 68.4W 30.2N 71.2W 33.2N 73.3W
BAMM 25.3N 65.6W 26.7N 68.9W 27.8N 72.0W 29.4N 74.8W
A98E 25.4N 66.1W 26.8N 70.6W 28.4N 74.5W 30.4N 76.7W
LBAR 25.1N 65.3W 27.5N 68.7W 29.6N 70.8W 32.0N 71.9W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 59KTS 60KTS
DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 59KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.4N LONCUR = 56.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.4N LONM12 = 54.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.4N LONM24 = 52.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Models initialized with wind speed of 25 knots... in the 96-120 hr part of the forecast, more northerly components of motion than in previous runs...
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#1192 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:00 am

elysium wrote:The subtropical ridge to the east has fully bridged with the ridge to the west of Irene. It is my opinion that the eastern ridge is much stronger than is being computated by the models, and has effectively worked to strengthen the western ridge, which too is underestimated by the models.

Irene is underneath the western ridge, which is really now just an extention of the subtropical ridge. Notice how crushingly the west side of the subtropical ridge has pulverized the ULL off the coast of central and north Florida. This is telling you that by whatsoever definition, this ridge is no wise weak in any form. This is a very strong, powerful ridge setting up that will steer Irene under strong westward flow for at least 7 to 10 days.

Most of the prognostic models have Irene moving toward Bermuda in 48 hrs. as she is being forecasted by them to move up into a weakness between the western and eastern ridge. Every model has this scenario registered into its data base, and up until now this wouldn't necessarily been an error. In fact, until clear cut evidence existed that Irene was under the steering currents of the western ridge or that the ridge had bridged east to west, such an assumption would be correct. The official synoptical layout by the NWS has a weakness between the 2 ridges, not showing full bridging having taken place.

What is readily apparent now, however, is that not only has Irene come under the influence of the western anti-cyclonic, but that that anti-cyclonic has successfully fully bridged with the subtropical ridge. Furthermore, this ridge is intensifying much more resolutely than depicted by the models. This is happening as I am writing this hour's posted thread.

What is taking place right now is of such great significance that no adequate description can be rendered to impart upon you the true veracity of its weight in importance. The scenario unfolding is nothing less than Andrew's second coming save one, and only one additional detail not yet fully computated, but nevertheless a very important detail; the forward speed values as Irene shakes off the inertia and begins steaming westward.

If Irene can accelerate forward fast enough under the strengthening ridge, she becomes as predictable as Hurricane Andrew itself was in the exact same location. A rough estimate allows for east coast landfall in 5 days under a faster forward speed. If Irene is, as is being asserted, fully under the westward flow of the western ridge which is bridged now with the subtropical, Irene must move westward for 5 days, shifting between due west and W.N.W. At around day 7 there are some indications that a second trough will move off the east coast if the ridge is weak on the western periphery. Now, it is highly questionable that this trough will be able to exert any influence simply due to the strength of the ridge. However, if Irene moves forward at less than 15 mph, that would delay her arrival on the east coast by possibly 2 days, and the slower forward speed would also indicate a weaker ridge. If, on the other hand, Irene can maintain a forward speed of 15 mph or better, not only would that portend a stronger ridge and therefore stronger westward steering currents, but also she would hands down beat the trough. Remember, here we are talking about a second trough 7 days down the road, and not the weakness or gap in the ridge. Irene is well past that already.

Irene must pick up forward speed. If she does so we likely have Andrew's second coming. If Irene doesn't pick up forward speed, we may have nothing but a fish and Irene might recurve out to open sea.


Wow. A scenario like that would probably bring the storm directly to Biscayne Park, FL.

Fascinating description of Irene's future.
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#1193 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:06 am

Nice round compact CDO-like feature. A thickening surface band is forming to the NNW.

Could be tipping up more WNW now?
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#1194 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:17 am

dont see evidence of it moving any north...but i do see what appears to be at least a slight strenghthening phase.....not unusual as the diurnal effects take shape
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superfly

#1195 Postby superfly » Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:18 am

hurricanedude wrote:dont see evidence of it moving any north...but i do see what appears to be at least a slight strenghthening phase.....not unusual as the diurnal effects take shape


Nocturnal you mean?
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#1196 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:23 am

Good flare-up. Storm started as huge wave but is now a small compact storm more capable of being boosted by August conditions.

Will track over 85* SST's in the next 24 hours...
Last edited by Sanibel on Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1197 Postby FlSteel » Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:24 am

Looks like some thunderstorms are beginning to pop up out in front of Irene. I wonder if this indicates that it is beginning to develop new banding features or that the enviroment it is getting into has less shear.
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#1198 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:24 am

There could be a band arm developing to its NNW...
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superfly

#1199 Postby superfly » Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:32 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Look at that dry air finally being squeezed out of the Caribbean. I would expect the tropics to kick into high gear soon.
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wayoutfront

#1200 Postby wayoutfront » Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:32 am

Shes looking a little more robust now....

Image
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