TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[deltadog03]

thanks...ivanhater thats just because that convection is rotating aroung the center...the sat pic will play mind tricks with ya...lol

[Ivanhater]

thanks...ivanhater thats just because that convection is rotating aroung the center...the sat pic will play mind tricks with ya...lol

lol, thats what i mean...it LOOKS wnw because of the convection....i think its pretty much west

[deltadog03]

its hard sometimes with these systems...i would say no more than 275

[superfly]

I think it's going just N of W, around 275-280.

[Ivanhater]

its hard sometimes with these systems...i would say no more than 275

ya, im still trying to find that darn center...i think its a little farther south than the nhc fix, which they even said in their discussion it might be

[WeatherEmperor]

Trying to find a center is gonna give me a heart attack.

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

lol...me too..im gonna try to make a new map and forecast soon

[Sanibel]

I think it has slowed in reaction to meeting the troughy remnant border left behind by the last trough, but also in front of the next one. This slow down should let that next trough over the US push further east causing Irene to recurve, if it isn't doing that already. Poleward is the word in weakness.

Now the mid-level swirl is in the NW quadrant!

[baygirl_1]

Looking at the entire blob that is Irene, I think she's still moving west. It's still too hard to pick out a center, at least for my very untrained eyes. She is one tenacious storm: even with the moderate northerly shear on the west side (see the water vapor loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html), she's still has growing convection and pretty decent outflow.

[Ivanhater]

hmmm, take a look at this and put on the nhc forecast points and look to the southwest of it, could that be the center.....this is gonna take a team effort, lol
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050810 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050810 1800 050811 0600 050811 1800 050812 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 58.0W 23.3N 60.2W 24.3N 62.4W 25.2N 64.5W
BAMM 22.5N 58.0W 23.2N 60.4W 24.0N 62.7W 24.9N 64.8W
A98E 22.5N 58.0W 22.8N 59.6W 23.5N 61.6W 24.6N 63.7W
LBAR 22.5N 58.0W 22.9N 59.8W 23.7N 61.6W 24.5N 63.5W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050812 1800 050813 1800 050814 1800 050815 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.2N 66.5W 28.0N 69.9W 30.1N 73.0W 32.5N 75.1W
BAMM 25.8N 66.6W 27.2N 69.7W 28.5N 72.6W 30.0N 75.2W
A98E 25.6N 66.1W 27.6N 71.0W 29.3N 74.7W 31.6N 75.7W
LBAR 25.4N 65.1W 27.0N 68.2W 28.7N 70.9W 29.2N 72.9W
SHIP 55KTS 62KTS 63KTS 63KTS
DSHP 55KTS 62KTS 63KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 58.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 22.3N LONM12 = 56.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 22.4N LONM24 = 54.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Model Guidance.

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z model guidance looks in better agreement with the NHC forecast track.

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

i think it shows the bend back to west again?? at the end?

[Brent]

[gkrangers]

Bit of a west shift in the track. Tightly clustered around the NHC track.

[wxwatcher91]

I have to say I'm surprised that they dont have it up to 35kts... she isnt looking too bad... is there still a chance that the NHC will upgrade her to a TS at 5 or will they follow the models?

ok and one last thing WHERE IS RECON????

[WeatherEmperor]

I have to say I'm surprised that they dont have it up to 35kts... she isnt looking too bad... is there still a chance that the NHC will upgrade her to a TS at 5 or will they follow the models?

ok and one last thing WHERE IS RECON????

on vacation in the Bahamas.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

im going to find that center if its the last thing i do!!!!

[vbhoutex]

hmmm, take a look at this and put on the nhc forecast points and look to the southwest of it, could that be the center.....this is gonna take a team effort, lol
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks to me like whatever center there is is right under the convection or at least on the South side of the convection.

[Derek Ortt]

it isnt being upgraded because it hasn't become any better organized. It is still embedded within the SAL