TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[TampaFl]

One way to find out is to get a recon in there. Any word on when one is scheduled?

Robert

[CronkPSU]

new one hasn't been posted yet, should be real soon though


NOUS42 KNHC 101300 2005222 1256
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT WED 10 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-074
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1 NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
wxtlist.k: done

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050811 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050811 1200 050812 0000 050812 1200 050813 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.7N 62.0W 26.0N 64.4W 27.3N 66.4W 28.4N 67.9W
BAMM 24.7N 62.0W 25.7N 64.3W 26.7N 66.1W 27.5N 67.6W
A98E 24.7N 62.0W 26.3N 64.8W 28.0N 67.0W 29.9N 68.6W
LBAR 24.7N 62.0W 26.3N 64.1W 27.6N 65.7W 28.9N 66.8W
SHIP 45KTS 53KTS 60KTS 67KTS
DSHP 45KTS 53KTS 60KTS 67KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050813 1200 050814 1200 050815 1200 050816 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.3N 69.4W 31.6N 71.8W 34.3N 71.0W 34.6N 68.6W
BAMM 28.2N 68.8W 29.6N 71.1W 30.6N 72.4W 31.1N 73.5W
A98E 31.4N 70.2W 35.7N 71.4W 39.8N 66.9W 44.3N 52.5W
LBAR 29.6N 67.7W 30.6N 69.1W 31.8N 70.2W 32.4N 70.4W
SHIP 70KTS 72KTS 72KTS 72KTS
DSHP 70KTS 72KTS 72KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 62.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 59.3W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 22.4N LONM24 = 57.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM



12:00z Models=50 mph moving 300 degrees.

[gatorcane]

I'm smelling fish now..

[feederband]

I'm smelling fish now..

I don't know I haven't pull the fish out of the freezer just yet...

[Thunder44]

The BAMM takes it further west. LBAR turns it almost north. The others recurve it out.

[CronkPSU]

BAMM seems to slow it down as well

[storms in NC]

The BAMM takes it further west. LBAR turns it almost north. The others recurve it out.

But the BAMM has been right on it. It might be a fish but with the history of this storm who knows

[feederband]

I will feel more comfortable once we have a true surface low to track...

[storms in NC]

I will feel more comfortable once we have a true surface low to track...

That is the main Key right there

[KeyLargoDave]

The NHC isn't convinced, the satellites haven't been clear. We can latch onto any turning for evidence of a surface circulation, but I'd say overall your analysis <i>is</i> the popular one.

If it had a clear surface center no one would doubt it. But it's been a convective complex with mostly mid-level circulation, strengthening outflow but no surface center, even a decoupled one, according to all the available evidence. Could change within hours, but without a ship or plane right there finding a closed circulation, there's been no hard evidence it's there.
Yet.

[Andrew92]

I've always smelled fish, even when I was about to back off and say it might hit somewhere when it kept moving westward.

I stick to a fish prediction.

-Andrew92

[superfly]

There's been a surface circulation for at least 24 hours from what I've seen from the low level cloud inflow and outflow. Hard to pinpoint exact location under the convection but doesn't mean it's not there.

[storms in NC]

does that look like it may be closing now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

[Brent]

Something smells... and it smells like fish.

[cycloneye]

12:00z Models.

[KeyLargoDave]

There's been a surface circulation for at least 24 hours from what I've seen from the low level cloud inflow and outflow. Hard to pinpoint exact location under the convection but doesn't mean it's not there.

Superfly, I doubt if one were there it would be under the convection, if anything the system has been elongated northeast. It looks like an ET low more than anything.

Storms in NC: Yep, it does look to be wrapping up. Definitiely improving -- unless it inhales a mouthful of dust and coughs itself out again. Lessening shear giving a much better chance to get herself together.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The models see the ridge and weakness. Except for the BAMM which sees the lower level winds. This track depends on how much develment there is.

[du1st]

I agree with the BAMM 100%

[BensonTCwatcher]

I went down to the crossroads....tried to flag a ride...
I went down to the crossroads....tried ot flag a ride...
I might have missed the weakness....
It 'jus passed me by...


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8v4km.html

Irene...when you get to the next convergence take right..or left

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vishrd.html