TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1741 Postby **TampaFl** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:09 am

One way to find out is to get a recon in there. Any word on when one is scheduled?

Robert 8-)

#1742 Postby **CronkPSU** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:11 am

new one hasn't been posted yet, should be real soon though

NOUS42 KNHC 101300 2005222 1256
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT WED 10 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-074
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1 NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
wxtlist.k: done

#1743 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:13 am

TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050811 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050811 1200 050812 0000 050812 1200 050813 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.7N 62.0W 26.0N 64.4W 27.3N 66.4W 28.4N 67.9W
BAMM 24.7N 62.0W 25.7N 64.3W 26.7N 66.1W 27.5N 67.6W
A98E 24.7N 62.0W 26.3N 64.8W 28.0N 67.0W 29.9N 68.6W
LBAR 24.7N 62.0W 26.3N 64.1W 27.6N 65.7W 28.9N 66.8W
SHIP 45KTS 53KTS 60KTS 67KTS
DSHP 45KTS 53KTS 60KTS 67KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050813 1200 050814 1200 050815 1200 050816 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.3N 69.4W 31.6N 71.8W 34.3N 71.0W 34.6N 68.6W
BAMM 28.2N 68.8W 29.6N 71.1W 30.6N 72.4W 31.1N 73.5W
A98E 31.4N 70.2W 35.7N 71.4W 39.8N 66.9W 44.3N 52.5W
LBAR 29.6N 67.7W 30.6N 69.1W 31.8N 70.2W 32.4N 70.4W
SHIP 70KTS 72KTS 72KTS 72KTS
DSHP 70KTS 72KTS 72KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 62.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 59.3W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 22.4N LONM24 = 57.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

12:00z Models=50 mph moving 300 degrees.

#1744 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:17 am

I'm smelling fish now..

#1745 Postby **feederband** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:18 am

boca_chris wrote:I'm smelling fish now..

I don't know I haven't pull the fish out of the freezer just yet... :wink:

Thunder44 · #1746 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:19 am

The BAMM takes it further west. LBAR turns it almost north. The others recurve it out.

#1747 Postby **CronkPSU** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:20 am

BAMM seems to slow it down as well

#1748 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:21 am

Thunder44 wrote:The BAMM takes it further west. LBAR turns it almost north. The others recurve it out.

But the BAMM has been right on it. It might be a fish but with the history of this storm who knows

#1749 Postby **feederband** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:21 am

I will feel more comfortable once we have a true surface low to track...

#1750 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:22 am

feederband wrote:I will feel more comfortable once we have a true surface low to track...

That is the main Key right there

KeyLargoDave · #1751 Postby **KeyLargoDave** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:24 am

The NHC isn't convinced, the satellites haven't been clear. We can latch onto any turning for evidence of a surface circulation, but I'd say overall your analysis <i>is</i> the popular one.

If it had a clear surface center no one would doubt it. But it's been a convective complex with mostly mid-level circulation, strengthening outflow but no surface center, even a decoupled one, according to all the available evidence. Could change within hours, but without a ship or plane right there finding a closed circulation, there's been no hard evidence it's there.
Yet.

#1752 Postby **Andrew92** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:25 am

I've always smelled fish, even when I was about to back off and say it might hit somewhere when it kept moving westward.

I stick to a fish prediction.

-Andrew92

superfly · #1753 Postby **superfly** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:27 am

There's been a surface circulation for at least 24 hours from what I've seen from the low level cloud inflow and outflow. Hard to pinpoint exact location under the convection but doesn't mean it's not there.

#1754 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:29 am

does that look like it may be closing now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

Website · #1755 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:37 am

Something smells... and it smells like fish.

#1756 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:38 am

12:00z Models.

KeyLargoDave · #1757 Postby **KeyLargoDave** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:40 am

superfly wrote:There's been a surface circulation for at least 24 hours from what I've seen from the low level cloud inflow and outflow. Hard to pinpoint exact location under the convection but doesn't mean it's not there.

Superfly, I doubt if one were there it would be under the convection, if anything the system has been elongated northeast. It looks like an ET low more than anything.

Storms in NC: Yep, it does look to be wrapping up. Definitiely improving -- unless it inhales a mouthful of dust and coughs itself out again. Lessening shear giving a much better chance to get herself together.

BensonTCwatcher · #1758 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:42 am

The models see the ridge and weakness. Except for the BAMM which sees the lower level winds. This track depends on how much develment there is.

du1st · #1759 Postby **du1st** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:51 am

I agree with the BAMM 100%

BensonTCwatcher · #1760 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 9:19 am

I went down to the crossroads....tried to flag a ride...
I went down to the crossroads....tried ot flag a ride...
I might have missed the weakness....
It 'jus passed me by...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8v4km.html

Irene...when you get to the next convergence take right..or left

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vishrd.html

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