TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[superfly]

She's looking wavy again....She keeps insisting on no LLC...

I have never seen a better look to a 50mph Tropical Storm than what Irene looks now. This storm is probably stronger than what the NHC says.

Quickscat is not always the way to go! Satellite is kind of obvious at this point.

I dunno, just a couple days ago soon-to-be Fernanda was the best looking TD I had ever seen with deep convection and buzzsaw shape.

[storms in NC]

she is growing nicely. Looks to be moving at around 290
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Ivanhater]

has anyone noticed a westward bend in the last few frames?

[Derecho]

has anyone noticed a westward bend in the last few frames?

No.

[storms in NC]

has anyone noticed a westward bend in the last few frames?

yes that is why I said it was moving around 290

[dwg71]

has anyone noticed a westward bend in the last few frames?

Where do you put the center??

I see a 300* heading..

[SouthFloridawx]

this is not an official forcast...

I think that Irene is going to start moving more westward... than WNW... within the next 24 hours.... I might be wrong ...

[Ivanhater]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

no one really knows where the center is...but the overall storm has bent more toward the west on the last few frames

[Thunder44]

I don't see much change in movement. But is that an eye begining to form? Look at at close up loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Ivanhater]

I don't see much change in movement. But is that an eye begining to form? Look at at close up loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

i dont think so....but if it is....we got some big problems

[clfenwi]

I don't see much change in movement. But is that an eye begining to form? Look at at close up loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

There would have to be a heck of a lot more central organization for an eye to form.

I;m not sure exactly what feature you are seeing, but I think it is just a slightly cloudless area... nothing like an eye.

[clfenwi]

WHXX04 KWBC 111723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 24.6 62.2 300./14.9
6 25.5 63.5 305./13.8
12 26.1 64.5 300./11.6
18 26.8 65.7 301./12.2
24 27.4 66.7 301./11.2
30 27.9 67.8 293./10.2
36 28.2 68.7 287./ 8.9
42 28.4 69.5 285./ 7.3
48 28.6 70.2 291./ 6.4
54 29.0 70.8 302./ 7.0
60 29.6 71.1 331./ 5.6
66 30.2 71.6 324./ 7.7
72 31.0 71.9 336./ 8.4
78 31.7 72.2 342./ 7.0
84 32.2 72.3 345./ 5.7
90 32.7 72.3 355./ 4.9
96 33.2 72.5 346./ 5.0
102 33.6 72.7 333./ 4.1
108 33.9 73.0 312./ 4.1
114 34.2 73.4 311./ 4.6
120 34.6 73.5 342./ 4.1
126 35.0 73.9 316./ 5.1

12Z GFDL... further north throughout the period, but keeps moving Irene towards land throughout as well...

[Thunder44]

I don't see much change in movement. But is that an eye begining to form? Look at at close up loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

There would have to be a heck of a lot more central organization for an eye to form.

I;m not sure exactly what feature you are seeing, but I think it is just a slightly cloudless area... nothing like an eye.

Yes, but that's where I believe the center is. I do believe it's strengthening. I don't think this is a hurricane though.

[Agua]

Yes, but that's where I believe the center is. I do believe it's strengthening. I don't think this is a hurricane though.

Yeah, I don't think that's an "eye", but that looks to be the llc to my untrained eye.

[Sanibel]

Around 290*


The west Atlantic isn't supporting hurricanes this year...

[gkrangers]

Around 290*


The west Atlantic isn't supporting hurricanes this year...

I guess its ok to sound the all clear then ?

[storms in NC]

Around 290*


The west Atlantic isn't supporting hurricanes this year...

So you see it going 290 also?

[Ivanhater]

Around 290*


The west Atlantic isn't supporting hurricanes this year...

So you see it going 290 also?

im telling you, it has bent more toward the west

[clfenwi]

I don't see much change in movement. But is that an eye begining to form? Look at at close up loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

There would have to be a heck of a lot more central organization for an eye to form.

I;m not sure exactly what feature you are seeing, but I think it is just a slightly cloudless area... nothing like an eye.

Yes, but that's where I believe the center is. I do believe it's strengthening. I don't think this is a hurricane though.

I somewhat concur with the strengthening asessment due to the expansion in the 'mass of the storm'. Don't see much improvement in central organization however... opinions will vary of course.

Looking at some unzoomed imagery, I think I see the bit that you were referring to... it shows up well in this image, no?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/194.jpg ?

[Ivanhater]

you can see the eye like feature in the last frame

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html