TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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superfly

#1781 Postby superfly » Thu Aug 11, 2005 11:41 am

TS Zack wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:She's looking wavy again....She keeps insisting on no LLC...


I have never seen a better look to a 50mph Tropical Storm than what Irene looks now. This storm is probably stronger than what the NHC says.

Quickscat is not always the way to go! Satellite is kind of obvious at this point.


I dunno, just a couple days ago soon-to-be Fernanda was the best looking TD I had ever seen with deep convection and buzzsaw shape.
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#1782 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 11, 2005 11:41 am

she is growing nicely. Looks to be moving at around 290
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#1783 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:02 pm

has anyone noticed a westward bend in the last few frames?
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#1784 Postby Derecho » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:03 pm

ivanhater wrote:has anyone noticed a westward bend in the last few frames?


No.
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#1785 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:03 pm

ivanhater wrote:has anyone noticed a westward bend in the last few frames?


yes that is why I said it was moving around 290
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#1786 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:05 pm

ivanhater wrote:has anyone noticed a westward bend in the last few frames?


Where do you put the center??

I see a 300* heading..
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i think

#1787 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:06 pm

this is not an official forcast...

I think that Irene is going to start moving more westward... than WNW... within the next 24 hours.... I might be wrong ...
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#1788 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:07 pm

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

no one really knows where the center is...but the overall storm has bent more toward the west on the last few frames
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#1789 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:17 pm

I don't see much change in movement. But is that an eye begining to form? Look at at close up loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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#1790 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:21 pm

Thunder44 wrote:I don't see much change in movement. But is that an eye begining to form? Look at at close up loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html



i dont think so....but if it is....we got some big problems
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#1791 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:29 pm

Thunder44 wrote:I don't see much change in movement. But is that an eye begining to form? Look at at close up loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


There would have to be a heck of a lot more central organization for an eye to form.

I;m not sure exactly what feature you are seeing, but I think it is just a slightly cloudless area... nothing like an eye.
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#1792 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:35 pm

WHXX04 KWBC 111723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 24.6 62.2 300./14.9
6 25.5 63.5 305./13.8
12 26.1 64.5 300./11.6
18 26.8 65.7 301./12.2
24 27.4 66.7 301./11.2
30 27.9 67.8 293./10.2
36 28.2 68.7 287./ 8.9
42 28.4 69.5 285./ 7.3
48 28.6 70.2 291./ 6.4
54 29.0 70.8 302./ 7.0
60 29.6 71.1 331./ 5.6
66 30.2 71.6 324./ 7.7
72 31.0 71.9 336./ 8.4
78 31.7 72.2 342./ 7.0
84 32.2 72.3 345./ 5.7
90 32.7 72.3 355./ 4.9
96 33.2 72.5 346./ 5.0
102 33.6 72.7 333./ 4.1
108 33.9 73.0 312./ 4.1
114 34.2 73.4 311./ 4.6
120 34.6 73.5 342./ 4.1
126 35.0 73.9 316./ 5.1

12Z GFDL... further north throughout the period, but keeps moving Irene towards land throughout as well...
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#1793 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:37 pm

clfenwi wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I don't see much change in movement. But is that an eye begining to form? Look at at close up loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


There would have to be a heck of a lot more central organization for an eye to form.

I;m not sure exactly what feature you are seeing, but I think it is just a slightly cloudless area... nothing like an eye.


Yes, but that's where I believe the center is. I do believe it's strengthening. I don't think this is a hurricane though.
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#1794 Postby Agua » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:43 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Yes, but that's where I believe the center is. I do believe it's strengthening. I don't think this is a hurricane though.


Yeah, I don't think that's an "eye", but that looks to be the llc to my untrained eye.
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#1795 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:46 pm

Around 290*


The west Atlantic isn't supporting hurricanes this year...
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gkrangers

#1796 Postby gkrangers » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:48 pm

Sanibel wrote:Around 290*


The west Atlantic isn't supporting hurricanes this year...
I guess its ok to sound the all clear then ?
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#1797 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:48 pm

Sanibel wrote:Around 290*


The west Atlantic isn't supporting hurricanes this year...


So you see it going 290 also?
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#1798 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:49 pm

storms in NC wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Around 290*


The west Atlantic isn't supporting hurricanes this year...


So you see it going 290 also?


im telling you, it has bent more toward the west
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#1799 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:54 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
clfenwi wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I don't see much change in movement. But is that an eye begining to form? Look at at close up loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


There would have to be a heck of a lot more central organization for an eye to form.

I;m not sure exactly what feature you are seeing, but I think it is just a slightly cloudless area... nothing like an eye.


Yes, but that's where I believe the center is. I do believe it's strengthening. I don't think this is a hurricane though.


I somewhat concur with the strengthening asessment due to the expansion in the 'mass of the storm'. Don't see much improvement in central organization however... opinions will vary of course.

Looking at some unzoomed imagery, I think I see the bit that you were referring to... it shows up well in this image, no?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/194.jpg ?
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#1800 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:56 pm

you can see the eye like feature in the last frame

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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