TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[storm4u]

you can see the eye like feature in the last frame

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

it kind of does look like an eye but as of right now i dont think it is! They really should have brought recon in there today in my opinion!

[Thunder44]

you can see the eye like feature in the last frame

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Yep you can see it better on the floater. The last frame at 17:15 it's gotten a little more covered by convection blowing up on the NE side.

[Hurricaneman]

has anyone noticed a westward bend in the last few frames?

No, its still wnw

[SouthFloridawx]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 111330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT THU 11 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-075

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1 TROPICAL STORM IRENE
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0109A IRENE B. NOAA9 0209A IRENE
C. 12/1300Z C. 12/1800Z
D. 27.0N 66.7W D. NA
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2030Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 13/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0309A IRENE
C. 13/0115Z
D. 27.9N 68.3W
E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 13/1800Z. ANOTHER G-IV FLIGHT.

[Ivanhater]

has anyone noticed a westward bend in the last few frames?

No, its still wnw

i didnt say its moving west...i said a bend more toward the west

[shortwave]

Almost seems like irene is embedded on the northern side of the ull that's to its south. The two are moving in tandem and it could be that the elongation of irene is partially due to that ull, as well as its current motion.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Havn't heard any opinions on this yet and wanted to know what everyone thinks.

[clfenwi]

SSD estimate

11/1745 UTC 25.4N 63.1W T3.0/3.0 IRENE

AFWA estimate

TPNT KGWC 111755
A. TROPICAL STORM IRENE (NINE)
B. 11/1731Z (62)
C. 25.2N/9
D. 62.0W/8
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS -11/1731Z-
G. IR/EIRVIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. FINAL T BASED ON DT. PT AND MET
SUPPORT.

AODT: 3.7 (EMBDED CTR)

[JTD]

So what's the best guess motion right now? 285/290/295/300?

[Ivanhater]

So what's the best guess motion right now? 285/290/295/300?

lol, you will get 6 different opinions from 5 different people with that loaded question

[gkrangers]

AFWA seems bullish...leading the way with the highest intensity estimates.

Seems WNW to me.

No eye, but there could be some stronger banding on the northern and eastern sides of the center, imo.

[WeatherEmperor]

So what's the best guess motion right now? 285/290/295/300?

lol, you will get 6 different opinions from 5 different people with that loaded question

hey check out the new interesting UKMET.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[dwg71]

So what's the best guess motion right now? 285/290/295/300?

lol, you will get 6 different opinions from 5 different people with that loaded question

There's no way of knowing with out a well defined center. You just have to watch and take six hour guestimates to get an idea of the heading. If I had to guess I would say 300. But that is probably because I called a fish and do not want to eat crow. I guess you could call it "fishcasting".

[JTD]

So what's the best guess motion right now? 285/290/295/300?

lol, you will get 6 different opinions from 5 different people with that loaded question

but please tell me, I'm on dial-up and don't want to load satelite loops.

[gkrangers]

So what's the best guess motion right now? 285/290/295/300?

lol, you will get 6 different opinions from 5 different people with that loaded question

but please tell me, I'm on dial-up and don't want to load satelite loops.

290 is probably a fair estimate.

[storms in NC]

I say 290

[deltadog03]

ok, let me chime in!!!! there is a bend to towards the west in the loop...its V E R Y hard to get a fix on the LLC...period...oh yeah..guess who is coming to this party?? the RIDGE...look at the ULL is moving SW and the clouds with it are being shunted WESTWARD....

[Sanibel]

A ULL is punching right into it from the south. Irene is right on top of this ULL and is being kept down because of it.

Whether weak or not the trough is established and storms usually recurve in front of them...

[JTD]

Thanks!!

[deltadog03]

the ULL is being shunted SW...and weakening...look at the WV...a tale tale sign of the ridge building in....

[Ivanhater]

take a look at the visible and just tell me if you see a bend more toward the west..im not saying its moving west..but it seems to have stopped the 300

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html