TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[JTD]

Look at that. The trough got her. Irene is going to recurve after all.

[Air Force Met]

The trough now has Irene in its firm clasp, and she will soon begin heading due north and then northeast out to sea.

...Today's recurvature of Irene eliminates that possibility as she will quickly now be swept out to sea.

Wait...weren't you the one who said "It's a certainty that the scenario just outlined detailing a sharp turn to the west will gain serious credibility on Monday, and will likely be the official forecast on Tuesday. There is no way that Irene is going to recurve."...and that Irene would be approaching min hurricane status by Tuesday?

What happened to "there is no way?" I don't understand...you're kinda all over the map here. If you are going to change your mind...you need to omit words like "certainty"..."no way"...done deal...and the like. Otherwise...you'll get no street cred and all you'll be doing is taking up space in the blogosphere.

[Air Force Met]

here is a simple question to everyone who wants to answer.....why do you think Irene is going out to sea?? and why do you think Irene will make landfall in the US?

very good question hope to see some answers!!!

Don't hold your breath.

[Stormtrack]

The system at 12 north/46 is becoming better organized. Also theres another off to the south of the Cape verdes. Both need to develop to keep this year ahead of 1995.

I'm all for this year not catching 1995. Isn't everone?

[Normandy]

The trough now has Irene in its firm clasp, and she will soon begin heading due north and then northeast out to sea.

...Today's recurvature of Irene eliminates that possibility as she will quickly now be swept out to sea.

Wait...weren't you the one who said "It's a certainty that the scenario just outlined detailing a sharp turn to the west will gain serious credibility on Monday, and will likely be the official forecast on Tuesday. There is no way that Irene is going to recurve."...and that Irene would be approaching min hurricane status by Tuesday?

What happened to "there is no way?" I don't understand...you're kinda all over the map here. If you are going to change your mind...you need to omit words like "certainty"..."no way"...done deal...and the like. Otherwise...you'll get no street cred and all you'll be doing is taking up space in the blogosphere.

Yeah I smell a troll.

[InimanaChoogamaga]

The blogosphere? This is a forum not a blog. I read somewhere that blogs will eventually replace forums because once everyone has a blog the discussion will just travel along the blog posts and forums will no longer be needed. But that's off topic. What Elysium is posting is not what the NHC is saying. They said they can't rule out a US landfall within five days or so.

[Air Force Met]

The blogosphere? This is a forum not a blog. I read somewhere that blogs will eventually replace forums because once everyone has a blog the discussion will just travel along the blog posts and forums will no longer be needed. But that's off topic. What Elysium is posting is not what the NHC is saying. They said they can't rule out a US landfall within five days or so.

Pardon me for my incorrect use of terminology...maybe I should have said bandwidth.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I place the center at 25.8/64.2...

The system center is now centered near the center of the curving. This thing is starting ot form curve banding with outflow out of all quads. This thing could be very interesting over the next few days.

[gkrangers]

good core. This is 4 hours old, as well.

[shaggy]

reason i think irene may be a threat is because the models offer no real synoptic reasoning to the ridge breaking down and that can mean that the storm will stay on a more steady wnw to nw track over time instead of a recurve.If there was a trough coming that would be one thing but no such trough is coming to break the ridge down so my best GUESS is a serious potential for a landfall on the East coast

[Rashid]

this guy elisium reminds me of trk over at TWC boards. this is not necessarily good or bad, just a thought.

back to the topic...

[webke]

In reference to Air Force Mets comments earlier, I remember a earlier post in which one of the Mods requested to Know about these situations where posts are made just to keep everybody running in circles. I do not know how to point these posts out to a Mod and would appreciate anyones help in the matter.
Ken

[ThunderMate]

Im thinking that a serious threat is on the horizon for the outer banks into Southeast Va. As the ridge has no reason to weaken i think an east coast hit is unstoppable. If anything thjat allows a little weakness in the ridge then i see Irene taking a trek right on up the Chesapeake Bay and hitting the Delmarva hard.

[gkrangers]

Im thinking that a serious threat is on the horizon for the outer banks into Southeast Va. As the ridge has no reason to weaken i think an east coast hit is unstoppable. If anything thjat allows a little weakness in the ridge then i see Irene taking a trek right on up the Chesapeake Bay and hitting the Delmarva hard.

If the ridge weakens as Irene is heading towards, lets say, the NC coast...it'll stay offshore...going further east. Wouldn't be able to hit the Chesseapeake/Delmarva area, head on atleast.

[Cookiely]

It looks as if a small part of Irene is splitting off. Can these small remnants become separate tropical identities? Can they develope?

[storms in NC]

I go to work and come back and there is a different tune going. The last I read was going out to sea no way a hit on the east coast. What changed ?
If you ask me I think you should ask Irene what she is going to do.

I bet she would say see ya later. But really I don't know what is going to happen

[tallywx]

good core. This is 4 hours old, as well.

Nice lookin' tropical wave there (tipping the hat to derek)

[CronkPSU]

good core. This is 4 hours old, as well.

Nice lookin' tropical wave there (tipping the hat to derek)

i have no idea what i am looking at here, i know the red obviously means something stronger, can anyone help the newbie?

[gkrangers]

Think of it kinda like a radar from space...it can see the stronger bands underneath the cirrus clouds that top the cyclones.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Could be the start of a banding eye?