TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[JTD]

Did you guys notice that "elysium" sounds a little like "asylum"?

Yes!!! I thought I was the only one that noticed that.

Anyway, based on the 5 pm NHC discussion, I'd be very surprised if this doesn't affect some part of the U.S.E.C. at least to a degree.

[gkrangers]

18z GFDL....



951
WHXX04 KWBC 112323
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 25.3 63.5 300./13.0
6 25.8 64.3 298./ 9.2
12 26.5 65.3 305./11.0
18 27.1 66.1 308./ 9.9
24 27.6 67.0 302./ 8.9
30 28.0 67.8 296./ 8.1
36 28.3 68.7 287./ 8.3
42 28.5 69.3 290./ 6.4
48 28.8 70.1 287./ 7.4
54 29.1 70.8 298./ 6.4
60 29.6 71.4 305./ 7.2
66 30.0 71.9 310./ 6.4
72 30.3 72.3 309./ 4.5
78 30.7 72.7 311./ 4.9
84 30.9 73.2 296./ 4.4
90 31.1 73.7 296./ 4.6
96 31.2 74.2 285./ 4.8
102 31.4 74.6 288./ 3.9
108 31.5 75.1 281./ 3.9
114 31.6 75.4 288./ 3.0
120 31.7 75.5 313./ 1.5
126 31.9 75.9 291./ 3.8



SSSSSSSLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWW

[superfly]

The models are flipping at every run so I think it's safe to say that we'll just have to wait and see. I'm still thinking landfall myself.

[JTD]

Gkrangers,

Is this a shift at all? I didn't look at the last one.

[gkrangers]

Gkrangers,

Is this a shift at all? I didn't look at the last one.

Big SW shift...tho I'd expect more flip flopping for the next few days.

[Ivanhater]

Gkrangers,

Is this a shift at all? I didn't look at the last one.

Big SW shift...tho I'd expect more flip flopping for the next few days.

yes very big shift sw, remember the nhc said they were on the south side of guidance

[mahicks]

Did you guys notice that "elysium" sounds a little like "asylum"?

Yes!!! I thought I was the only one that noticed that.

Anyway, based on the 5 pm NHC discussion, I'd be very surprised if this doesn't affect some part of the U.S.E.C. at least to a degree.

Elysium is latin for "heaven" or "in the clouds" Greek Heaven to be exact...

I put these forcasts "in the clouds"

[JTD]

Gkrangers,

Is this a shift at all? I didn't look at the last one.

Big SW shift...tho I'd expect more flip flopping for the next few days.

Thanks! Wow

[Ivanhater]

Did you guys notice that "elysium" sounds a little like "asylum"?

Yes!!! I thought I was the only one that noticed that.

Anyway, based on the 5 pm NHC discussion, I'd be very surprised if this doesn't affect some part of the U.S.E.C. at least to a degree.

Elysium is latin for "heaven" or "in the clouds" Greek Heaven to be exact...

I put these forcasts "in the clouds"

haaaaaaaaaa

[Andrew92]

Alright, back to Irene.

[clfenwi]

If that GFDL forecast verifies, I'll form a new religion with it as the deity.

Otherwise... breaks down in uncontrollable giggling

[micktooth]

Looks more and more like a landfall. The only thing definite I can see is that this thread will hit 100 pages!!!

[cycloneye]

Alright, back to Irene.

Yes let's get back to discuss about Irene.

FYI the staff is discussing what actions we will take against the member elysium.

[Thunder44]

I think it's time to close this thread.

[Brent]

When will a new thread be created??? No one is gonna read 99 pages...

[shaggy]

going to be curious what the models say at 00z tonight.They have been all over the place with this storm and even more interesting will be what recon finds tomorrow.Still thinking a SC/NC/VA hit but no way to know for sure

Which models are you waiting to see at 00Z? Do you mean the BAMs? For a storm in the subtropics, you do not want to use the BAMM/BAMD/BAMS. They are very crude, basic models that don't use any physics. NHC uses them for a general estimate of the movement of developing tropical waves in the deep tropics. I don't know why they would continue to run them for a system so far north where the atmosphere is quite dynamic. However, I do look to see what the DSHIPS is predicting for intensity to see if there are any trends.


Up north, you want to look at the dynamic global models, like maybe the GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, ECMWF (though it's not been doing too well with tropical systems), GFS (if it can initialize a storm right), etc. Those runs for 00Z won't be out for quite a while.

the globals are a bit whacky per the NHC as they erode the ridge for reasons that are not synoptically sound so which models do we trust?

[boca]

I've been gone today what did elysium do and happy birthday Luis.

[deltadog03]

hahaha GFDL...so, when all the models shift back west...what is all of the people who shifted last time out to sea going to say??

[JTD]

From http://www.cnn.com:

Irene could become a hurricane by Friday and it was expected to continue over the next five days toward the U.S. coastline somewhere from South Carolina to New Jersey, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"A possible U.S. landfall by [Tuesday] can not be ruled out at this time," hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said.

[superfly]

I've been gone today what did elysium do and happy birthday Luis.

Just being himself posting really dramatic forecasts that change drastically every few hours. Personally, I don't mind it at all as it's pretty humorous.