000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122240
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FERNANDA...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... AND ON TROPICAL STORM GREG...LOCATED ABOUT
630 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
The Eastern Pacific is racing fast!!! I like the system near the GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. The models show it developing.
Come on Atlatnic are you scared. The Eastern Pacific is about ready to show you good.
Eastern Pacific on Fire!!!
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Scorpion
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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hurricanefreak1988
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Come on Atlatnic are you scared. The Eastern Pacific is about ready to show you good.
Heck no. We're not scared at all. Matt, I wouldn't be talking much trash, because in about a week or two, you're done for.
Atlantic Ocean- 2005 Hurricane Season Champions... go ahead and get that banner ready.
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Wacahootaman
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Derek Ortt
The increase in activity in the NE Pacific coincides with a reversal of the 200mb velocity potential anomalies over the region.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/vpot_tlon.html
The area of negative velocity potential anomalies (favorable for increased convection) has been slow to propogate, so it isn't a true MJO signal. I expect once those negative anomalies reach the Atlantic (perhaps in about a week), there will be quite a burst of activity, much like the NE Pacific is having right now.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/vpot_tlon.html
The area of negative velocity potential anomalies (favorable for increased convection) has been slow to propogate, so it isn't a true MJO signal. I expect once those negative anomalies reach the Atlantic (perhaps in about a week), there will be quite a burst of activity, much like the NE Pacific is having right now.
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hurricanefreak1988
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Derek Ortt wrote:does it really matter which basin wins. Not like this is a sporting event or anything. Much less work for me if the EPAC is the active basin. Until the end of September, I am only required to forecast for the Atl
No worries, it's all in fun. Just something to make the hurricane season even more exciting to follow.
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