TD#10=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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TD#10=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:45 pm

NRL just changed to noname and the models will come with header saying TD#10.First Advisorie at 5 PM.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:46 pm

alright. here we go again

<RICKY>
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:47 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050813 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050813 1800 050814 0600 050814 1800 050815 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 44.6W 15.1N 45.6W 16.2N 46.4W 17.3N 47.3W
BAMM 14.0N 44.6W 14.7N 45.6W 15.4N 46.5W 16.0N 47.4W
A98E 14.0N 44.6W 15.0N 45.9W 16.0N 47.2W 17.2N 48.5W
LBAR 14.0N 44.6W 15.1N 45.5W 16.6N 46.4W 17.9N 47.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050815 1800 050816 1800 050817 1800 050818 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 48.4W 21.2N 50.7W 24.4N 53.3W 27.8N 54.0W
BAMM 16.6N 48.5W 17.6N 51.2W 18.9N 54.8W 21.2N 58.7W
A98E 18.8N 49.9W 22.4N 52.7W 25.0N 54.9W 27.2N 54.4W
LBAR 19.5N 48.8W 23.2N 52.1W 27.2N 55.2W 30.8N 54.2W
SHIP 46KTS 52KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 46KTS 52KTS 56KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 43.3W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 42.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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#4 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:49 pm

Decent intensification trend, shows Jose by tomorrow morning.
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#5 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:49 pm

wow, pretty amazing we are on the verge of 'J' already!!! This has been quite an amazing year as far as quantity is concerned. I wonder if we will have 'K' by the end of August?
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#6 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:51 pm

Forgive my math, but dont the majority of those models show this TD10 going out to sea?

<RICKY>
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#7 Postby sma10 » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:51 pm

cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050813 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050813 1800 050814 0600 050814 1800 050815 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 44.6W 15.1N 45.6W 16.2N 46.4W 17.3N 47.3W
BAMM 14.0N 44.6W 14.7N 45.6W 15.4N 46.5W 16.0N 47.4W
A98E 14.0N 44.6W 15.0N 45.9W 16.0N 47.2W 17.2N 48.5W
LBAR 14.0N 44.6W 15.1N 45.5W 16.6N 46.4W 17.9N 47.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050815 1800 050816 1800 050817 1800 050818 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 48.4W 21.2N 50.7W 24.4N 53.3W 27.8N 54.0W
BAMM 16.6N 48.5W 17.6N 51.2W 18.9N 54.8W 21.2N 58.7W
A98E 18.8N 49.9W 22.4N 52.7W 25.0N 54.9W 27.2N 54.4W
LBAR 19.5N 48.8W 23.2N 52.1W 27.2N 55.2W 30.8N 54.2W
SHIP 46KTS 52KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 46KTS 52KTS 56KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 43.3W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 42.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Still some disparity in tracks, but they all are in agreement that forward motion will be very slow
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#8 Postby bvigal » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:52 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Forgive my math, but dont the majority of those models show this TD10 going out to sea?

<RICKY>


That's my question, too. And also, didn't the models all show the same thing at this point, with Irene?
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#9 Postby gkrangers » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:54 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Forgive my math, but dont the majority of those models show this TD10 going out to sea?

<RICKY>
BAMM takes it norrtheast of the northern antilles. The other 3 take it much further north and not as far west. I woulnd't really base any forecasts on these models yet. Also seems somewhat straight forward that we should expect a northerly track given the trough over the central Atlantic.
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#10 Postby cinlfla » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:54 pm

I've been watching it off and on all day I think its been a depression for a while now. Wonder which way it will go.
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#11 Postby artist » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:54 pm

here are some of the model plots for it from earlier

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
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#12 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:55 pm

bvigal wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Forgive my math, but dont the majority of those models show this TD10 going out to sea?

<RICKY>


That's my question, too. And also, didn't the models all show the same thing at this point, with Irene?


Yes, the models said Irene would be a fish storm as well. Um, Irene IS a fish storm! ;-)
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#13 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:55 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Forgive my math, but dont the majority of those models show this TD10 going out to sea?

<RICKY>


yes, TD10 is more than likely a fish. I"m just amazed at how many storms we've had so far
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#14 Postby artist » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:56 pm

hopefully it will remain such - for the sake of the islands.
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#15 Postby cinlfla » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:56 pm

Yes, the models said Irene would be a fish storm as well. Um, Irene IS a fish storm!



Well I guess the models are spot on, and at this point should we assume that td 10 will also go out to sea as well.
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#16 Postby Derecho » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:56 pm

The wide gap between the BAMM and BAMD are an indication it's going to get the crap sheared out of it in about 24 hours (something obvious from WV as well).

Question is will it have built up enough of a circ to survive; once it is sheared that horribly it will likely scoot west for a while.
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#17 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:57 pm

Didn't everyone say the same with Irene? She has come close, but was signifacantly farther N and a little more east at this point. We could have a much more southern track with more intensification and slamming into the carolinas.
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#18 Postby bvigal » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:Yes, the models said Irene would be a fish storm as well. Um, Irene IS a fish storm! ;-)

That's true, but I said "at this point" the models showed Irene going north at 45 degrees or some such, never crossing 50W.
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#19 Postby gkrangers » Sat Aug 13, 2005 2:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:
bvigal wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Forgive my math, but dont the majority of those models show this TD10 going out to sea?

<RICKY>


That's my question, too. And also, didn't the models all show the same thing at this point, with Irene?


Yes, the models said Irene would be a fish storm as well. Um, Irene IS a fish storm! ;-)
The models played chicken with Irene and won. They kept sayin recurve...and finally it is..
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#20 Postby gkrangers » Sat Aug 13, 2005 2:02 pm

WindRunner wrote:Didn't everyone say the same with Irene? She has come close, but was signifacantly farther N and a little more east at this point. We could have a much more southern track with more intensification and slamming into the carolinas.
Whoa whoa whoa.

We haven't even had an advisory yet and we're calling landfall points?
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