TD#10=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- cycloneye
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TD#10=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
NRL just changed to noname and the models will come with header saying TD#10.First Advisorie at 5 PM.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- cycloneye
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050813 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050813 1800 050814 0600 050814 1800 050815 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 44.6W 15.1N 45.6W 16.2N 46.4W 17.3N 47.3W
BAMM 14.0N 44.6W 14.7N 45.6W 15.4N 46.5W 16.0N 47.4W
A98E 14.0N 44.6W 15.0N 45.9W 16.0N 47.2W 17.2N 48.5W
LBAR 14.0N 44.6W 15.1N 45.5W 16.6N 46.4W 17.9N 47.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050815 1800 050816 1800 050817 1800 050818 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 48.4W 21.2N 50.7W 24.4N 53.3W 27.8N 54.0W
BAMM 16.6N 48.5W 17.6N 51.2W 18.9N 54.8W 21.2N 58.7W
A98E 18.8N 49.9W 22.4N 52.7W 25.0N 54.9W 27.2N 54.4W
LBAR 19.5N 48.8W 23.2N 52.1W 27.2N 55.2W 30.8N 54.2W
SHIP 46KTS 52KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 46KTS 52KTS 56KTS 61KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 43.3W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 42.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050813 1800 050814 0600 050814 1800 050815 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 44.6W 15.1N 45.6W 16.2N 46.4W 17.3N 47.3W
BAMM 14.0N 44.6W 14.7N 45.6W 15.4N 46.5W 16.0N 47.4W
A98E 14.0N 44.6W 15.0N 45.9W 16.0N 47.2W 17.2N 48.5W
LBAR 14.0N 44.6W 15.1N 45.5W 16.6N 46.4W 17.9N 47.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050815 1800 050816 1800 050817 1800 050818 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 48.4W 21.2N 50.7W 24.4N 53.3W 27.8N 54.0W
BAMM 16.6N 48.5W 17.6N 51.2W 18.9N 54.8W 21.2N 58.7W
A98E 18.8N 49.9W 22.4N 52.7W 25.0N 54.9W 27.2N 54.4W
LBAR 19.5N 48.8W 23.2N 52.1W 27.2N 55.2W 30.8N 54.2W
SHIP 46KTS 52KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 46KTS 52KTS 56KTS 61KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 43.3W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 42.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050813 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050813 1800 050814 0600 050814 1800 050815 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 44.6W 15.1N 45.6W 16.2N 46.4W 17.3N 47.3W
BAMM 14.0N 44.6W 14.7N 45.6W 15.4N 46.5W 16.0N 47.4W
A98E 14.0N 44.6W 15.0N 45.9W 16.0N 47.2W 17.2N 48.5W
LBAR 14.0N 44.6W 15.1N 45.5W 16.6N 46.4W 17.9N 47.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050815 1800 050816 1800 050817 1800 050818 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 48.4W 21.2N 50.7W 24.4N 53.3W 27.8N 54.0W
BAMM 16.6N 48.5W 17.6N 51.2W 18.9N 54.8W 21.2N 58.7W
A98E 18.8N 49.9W 22.4N 52.7W 25.0N 54.9W 27.2N 54.4W
LBAR 19.5N 48.8W 23.2N 52.1W 27.2N 55.2W 30.8N 54.2W
SHIP 46KTS 52KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 46KTS 52KTS 56KTS 61KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 43.3W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 42.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Still some disparity in tracks, but they all are in agreement that forward motion will be very slow
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BAMM takes it norrtheast of the northern antilles. The other 3 take it much further north and not as far west. I woulnd't really base any forecasts on these models yet. Also seems somewhat straight forward that we should expect a northerly track given the trough over the central Atlantic.WeatherEmperor wrote:Forgive my math, but dont the majority of those models show this TD10 going out to sea?
<RICKY>
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here are some of the model plots for it from earlier
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
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- wxman57
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bvigal wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:Forgive my math, but dont the majority of those models show this TD10 going out to sea?
<RICKY>
That's my question, too. And also, didn't the models all show the same thing at this point, with Irene?
Yes, the models said Irene would be a fish storm as well. Um, Irene IS a fish storm!

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- ConvergenceZone
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WeatherEmperor wrote:Forgive my math, but dont the majority of those models show this TD10 going out to sea?
<RICKY>
yes, TD10 is more than likely a fish. I"m just amazed at how many storms we've had so far
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- WindRunner
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The models played chicken with Irene and won. They kept sayin recurve...and finally it is..wxman57 wrote:bvigal wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:Forgive my math, but dont the majority of those models show this TD10 going out to sea?
<RICKY>
That's my question, too. And also, didn't the models all show the same thing at this point, with Irene?
Yes, the models said Irene would be a fish storm as well. Um, Irene IS a fish storm!
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Whoa whoa whoa.WindRunner wrote:Didn't everyone say the same with Irene? She has come close, but was signifacantly farther N and a little more east at this point. We could have a much more southern track with more intensification and slamming into the carolinas.
We haven't even had an advisory yet and we're calling landfall points?
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