Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[markymark8]

It will be very interesting to see what the recon flight finds pressure-wise in its final pass of the mission.

Yeah for sure. It wont be long. It will be interesting to see how much more if she has dropped in pressure from the data fom recon just a little while ago.

[SamSagnella]

if she misses a yucatan landfall i'm afraid south flordia is in deep trouble

At this point, even if it does make landfall it isn't going to take much out of her -- either way, FL is in for yet another one...

[tampaflwx]

if she misses a yucatan landfall i'm afraid south flordia is in deep trouble

i fear more for tampa or sarasota, because if she speeds up she will be pulled more toward the north rapidly and THEN make the hard right turn

[tampastorm]

IMO she has w/o question sped up. what happened to this stall did I miss something though the night?

[SamSagnella]

i fear more for tampa or sarasota, because if she speeds up she will be pulled more toward the north rapidly and THEN make the hard right turn

I am definitely with you on that one...I think that the models have consistently been too far south with their landfall locations. I had a landfall near Venice Beach at 1030pm yesterday, and I see very little reason to change that now.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77146

[Foladar0]

if she misses a yucatan landfall i'm afraid south flordia is in deep trouble

i fear more for tampa or sarasota, because if she speeds up she will be pulled more toward the north rapidly and THEN make the hard right turn

[Bocadude85]

Im begining to wonder if the comp models from a few days ago were right about the first trough picking her up and bring her towards South Florida

[Thunder44]

is it just me or does wilma appear to be speeding up ever so slightly with each frame as it continues its more northern progression?

Yes, she does look like she's picked up a little more speed and is definitely moving NNW to North now. So much for this slowing or stalling around the Yucatan.

[JamesFromMaine2]

convection is pretty much wrapped totally around the eye again!

[Foladar0]

Im begining to wonder if the comp models from a few days ago were right about the first trough picking her up and bring her towards South Florida

Nope, it hassss to go towards Tampa..

[SamSagnella]

Yes, she does look like she's picked up a little more speed and is definitely moving NNW to North now. So much for this slowing or stalling around the Yucatan.

As I stated earlier, the usually reliable GFDL seems to have gone on vacation in the Caribbean and left its retarded second cousin at the helm. It is borderline rediculous how poor the models as a whole have performed when faced with Wilma --- did anyone else notice that they never seemed to have been initialized at the proper pressure (i.e. 882mb on Wed).

[SamSagnella]

Recon is fixing (pun intended) to approach the CoC at this time.

[f5]

Wilma looks like Katrina and she wants to cause the same type of damage Katrina did.hurricanes have a mind of their own and this year is the year of worst case scenarios.hopefully next season(if it ever ends) we have nothing but fish canes

[tampastorm]

OK just waking up and hearing what I am hearing, Is Tampa now in more danger then when I went to sleep at 11? No stall? More north component faster? Never a dull moment!

[SamSagnella]

OK just waking up and hearing what I am hearing, Is Tampa now in more danger then when I went to sleep at 11? No stall? More north component faster? Never a dull moment!

According to the poorly-verifying models...no.

[f5]

for you folks along the west coast of Flordia if she misses this yucatan landfall the west coast of Flordia is toast

[tampastorm]

So according the the "models" no. Your opinion? Sure looks is to me. I am not talking a direct hit, but maybe further north then thought?

[SamSagnella]

So according the the "models" no. Your opinion? Sure looks is to me. I am not talking a direct hit, but maybe further north then thought?

I've been saying further north than SoFLA all along, but this is not an 'official' forecast by any means. Trust the NHC above all -- theyre the best in the biz...

[Ground_Zero_92]

So according the the "models" no. Your opinion? Sure looks is to me. I am not talking a direct hit, but maybe further north then thought?

The movement to the east and towards Florida has to due with Wilma's interaction with the front. A hurricane cannot plow through a cold front, so when the the front catches Wilma is the key point on the angle of approach.

[tampastorm]

I just am assuming less west movment means further north forecast point then predicted. Causing an overall north shift.