kenl01 wrote:I doubt we'll see anything EVEN CLOSE to last year.
I'm thinking around 26 named storms this year. Yes, this season will be close to year in my thinking. It's not even July yet...
According to at least one pretty good argument I read earlier and even a statement released from Accu Weather yesterday also, SST's are significantly lower at this time than last year across the Tropical Atlantic and also the Arctic Ocean.
This comment bothers me. First of all, look at some of the water temps in the GOM and Caribbean. It's higher then last year! The only parts of the ocean that are cooler this year then last year are the very east Caribbean and east Atlantic, where storms don't bomb very fast. Not to mention that it's slightly cooler then last year and still above normal. So the statement about the Atlantic ocean being overall cooler may mislead people thinking this year won't be very bad at all. The GOM is hot!!
[/quote]Also, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index is much lower this year than last year, another indication of less activity expected this year.[/quote]
I have not gotten into this subject but I don't find it to be a huge factor in hurricane activity. Remember, I don't know much about this subject so I will leave it.
This year was off to a relatively weak start.

I disagree!! Are you kidding? I guess 2005 had a weak start as well and 2004 had a horrible start with no named storms.
Alberto, which formed in early June, was relatively weak.
It was the same strength as Arlene in 2005. Also, why are you saying a near hurricane strength storm is weak? That is absurd.
Last year at this time, we already had Bret before the end of June. So this year already lags behind last year.
Yah, by like 2 days

I guess I have to issue a season cancel. Oh, and Beryl almost formed on June 28 or around that time. It may have even been a storm but Recon was too late. I heard rumors about that.
Heck, we had a stronger start during the strong El-Nino summer of 1982, when 'Hurricane Alberto" formed off the SW FL coast in early June, plus another sub-tropical storm along the SE coast in mid June.
Did you say that to the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season?
At least so far, the 2006 hurricane season has not even mustered that.

It has mustered enough for me to think this will be very active. One storm almost formed on June 28. It was soooo close.
So overall, I disagree with that post almost 100%.
I would like to know when there has ever been a prooven corolation between active begining of season and entirely active season? In fact I've only read articles that show the opposite. Usually a active begining has a very slow remainder of season. The number of storms before august has NOTHING to do with what Aug Sept and Oct will bring.
Exactly.
With cooler water and more troughiness in the Eastern US and Atlantic (meaning more shear), the number of storms will be much lower.
It will stay like that all season?
Well, we have a complete reversal from water temps on a global scale from a year ago in most areas. It's much cooler overall............
I have some doubts on that. I think it's normal overall this year. I have to check some links to find out. But if it is cooler overall, it's not "much" cooling but "Slightly" cooler.
Big Post for me.