TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

PTrackerLA · #221 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:57 pm

The latest frames on the IR I've seen from the GHCC site shows a round area of deep convection heading WNW while the big "blob" is weakening. In think this new area will become the new CDO, squashing claims of a NNW movement because it's clearly not happening.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #222 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:58 pm

Cool I can now see how many post I'v made. 8,100+!

As for this system I would say a shift more westward or west-northwestwrad over the next 24 to 36 hours. Taking it south of Cuba(Kind of like dennis)Then moving northward after 30 hours.

The shear is still hitting it pretty hard...Which is keeping the west side from organizing.

I would say a track west of the Gfs looks good.

rnbaida · #223 Postby **rnbaida** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:59 pm

new convection forming

#224 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:59 pm

southerngale wrote:
Noles2006 wrote:Convergence -- it's just like those who live in Texas are very adament that it's heading towards SE Texas/SW Louisiana.

Actually, there are MANY more in Texas (including those of us hit by Rita last year) who aren't the least bit adamant that it's heading toward SE Texas/SW Louisiana. You shouldn't generalize because of a few.

I was starting to get a little nervous yesterday, thinking about where I would go IF it headed this direction. You can't imagine how relieved I am today to realize that I won't have to pack up and go anywhere! I don't wish it upon anyone, but I can't help but feel a sense of relief. Despite popular board belief, hurriances are not fun.

are you on record as sounding the all clear for SE Texas?

#225 Postby **Toadstool** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:00 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Cool I can now see how many post I'v made. 8,100+!

As for this system I would say a shift more westward or west-northwestwrad over the next 24 to 36 hours. Taking it south of Cuba(Kind of like dennis)Then moving northward after 30 hours.

The shear is still hitting it pretty hard...Which is keeping the west side from organizing.

I would say a track west of the Gfs looks good.

I agree, the shear really is influencing the system.

cpdaman · #226 Postby **cpdaman** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:00 pm

two things

1. it appears the shear direction has swung to a more southerly component as the ull retreasts west and ernesto moves west north west and this is shearing the convection more north than east and this is creating a bit of a illusion of a northward storm movement.
2. however it could be both and i beleive ernesto's strengthening and intense thunderstorms may soon feel the effects of the dominican/haiti's mountanious terrain

Derek Ortt · #227 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:00 pm

meteorology is pure science, governed strictly by mathematical equations.

The errors come from the fact that the equations cannot be explicitly solved. Instead, numerical approximations are required

Mac · #228 Postby **Mac** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:00 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:meteorology is pure science, governed strictly by mathematical equations.

The errors come from the fact that the equations cannot be explicitly solved. Instead, numerical approximations are required

Derek, could you answer my question??? Please?

#229 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:01 pm

Toadstool wrote:
I think that's the main problem, weather isn't science. But I agree, keep the bickering off the site.

Wow! I wasted 5 years of math, physics, thermodynamics, and other science courses only to find out weather isn't science....

I do have a magic 8-ball, though! ;-)

#230 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:02 pm

Toadstool wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Cool I can now see how many post I'v made. 8,100+!

As for this system I would say a shift more westward or west-northwestwrad over the next 24 to 36 hours. Taking it south of Cuba(Kind of like dennis)Then moving northward after 30 hours.

The shear is still hitting it pretty hard...Which is keeping the west side from organizing.

I would say a track west of the Gfs looks good.

I agree, the shear really is influencing the system.

any possibility of this thing pulling a Chris over the next 24 hours with the shear and the proximity to the big islands????

Wx_Warrior · #231 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:02 pm

southerngale...much agreed with your statemtent..Until you LIVE the destruction, do be happy or cheering.

Stormavoider · #232 Postby **Stormavoider** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Toadstool wrote:
I think that's the main problem, weather isn't science. But I agree, keep the bickering off the site.

Wow! I wasted 5 years of math, physics, thermodynamics, and other science courses only to find out weather isn't science....

I do have a magic 8-ball, though!

Weather is the science of predicting chaos.

#233 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:04 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Toadstool wrote:
I think that's the main problem, weather isn't science. But I agree, keep the bickering off the site.

Wow! I wasted 5 years of math, physics, thermodynamics, and other science courses only to find out weather isn't science....

I do have a magic 8-ball, though!

The problem seems to be many newer posters do not quite understand the way this board works. Then with so much going on, mature posters fall into the name game. Please read the rules clearly stated up front, or remember who you are if you are a vet and set the example.

#234 Postby **Toadstool** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:04 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Toadstool wrote:
I think that's the main problem, weather isn't science. But I agree, keep the bickering off the site.

Wow! I wasted 5 years of math, physics, thermodynamics, and other science courses only to find out weather isn't science....

I do have a magic 8-ball, though!

Weather is the science of predicting chaos.

I agree, Pro Mets are doing their best and making progress, I just think more money and progress should be devoted to make it into a real science.

#235 Postby **webke** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:04 pm

All this and the models put aside, Just what do the mets on this board see this thing going with the shift to the northeast.
Thanks in advance.

KatDaddy · #236 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:05 pm

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

chris_fit · #237 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:06 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Toadstool wrote:
I think that's the main problem, weather isn't science. But I agree, keep the bickering off the site.

Wow! I wasted 5 years of math, physics, thermodynamics, and other science courses only to find out weather isn't science....

I do have a magic 8-ball, though!

I'm glad some of you guys still have a sensor of humor. I love it.

#238 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:07 pm

Did anybody notice the new surface low feature the NHC added. The low is just off teh FL coast? What effect if any will this play on our system?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Stormavoider · #239 Postby **Stormavoider** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:09 pm

gatorcane wrote:Did anybody notice the new surface low feature the NHC added. The low is just off teh FL coast? What effect if any will this play on our system?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

YEP

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88718

That's what I was wondering, If it were to develope, It would have to infuence Ernie even if it went fish.

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #240 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:10 pm

The local news in Memphis is even talking about Ernesto.

Seeing about the "rain chances" it might bring. If it makes landfall in AL or FLA, then I doubt much rain or wind would make it into the Mid South.

After landfall the storm would likely head NE, right?

TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

Who is online