TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#221 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:57 pm

The latest frames on the IR I've seen from the GHCC site shows a round area of deep convection heading WNW while the big "blob" is weakening. In think this new area will become the new CDO, squashing claims of a NNW movement because it's clearly not happening.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#222 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:58 pm

Cool I can now see how many post I'v made. 8,100+!

As for this system I would say a shift more westward or west-northwestwrad over the next 24 to 36 hours. Taking it south of Cuba(Kind of like dennis)Then moving northward after 30 hours.

The shear is still hitting it pretty hard...Which is keeping the west side from organizing.

I would say a track west of the Gfs looks good.
0 likes   

rnbaida

#223 Postby rnbaida » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:59 pm

new convection forming
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7191
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

#224 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:59 pm

southerngale wrote:
Noles2006 wrote:Convergence -- it's just like those who live in Texas are very adament that it's heading towards SE Texas/SW Louisiana.


Actually, there are MANY more in Texas (including those of us hit by Rita last year) who aren't the least bit adamant that it's heading toward SE Texas/SW Louisiana. You shouldn't generalize because of a few.

I was starting to get a little nervous yesterday, thinking about where I would go IF it headed this direction. You can't imagine how relieved I am today to realize that I won't have to pack up and go anywhere! I don't wish it upon anyone, but I can't help but feel a sense of relief. Despite popular board belief, hurriances are not fun.


are you on record as sounding the all clear for SE Texas?
0 likes   

Toadstool
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 264
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:46 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

#225 Postby Toadstool » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:00 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Cool I can now see how many post I'v made. 8,100+!

As for this system I would say a shift more westward or west-northwestwrad over the next 24 to 36 hours. Taking it south of Cuba(Kind of like dennis)Then moving northward after 30 hours.

The shear is still hitting it pretty hard...Which is keeping the west side from organizing.

I would say a track west of the Gfs looks good.


I agree, the shear really is influencing the system.
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

#226 Postby cpdaman » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:00 pm

two things

1. it appears the shear direction has swung to a more southerly component as the ull retreasts west and ernesto moves west north west and this is shearing the convection more north than east and this is creating a bit of a illusion of a northward storm movement.
2. however it could be both and i beleive ernesto's strengthening and intense thunderstorms may soon feel the effects of the dominican/haiti's mountanious terrain
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#227 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:00 pm

meteorology is pure science, governed strictly by mathematical equations.

The errors come from the fact that the equations cannot be explicitly solved. Instead, numerical approximations are required
0 likes   

Mac

#228 Postby Mac » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:00 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:meteorology is pure science, governed strictly by mathematical equations.

The errors come from the fact that the equations cannot be explicitly solved. Instead, numerical approximations are required


Derek, could you answer my question??? Please?
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23000
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#229 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:01 pm

Toadstool wrote:
I think that's the main problem, weather isn't science. But I agree, keep the bickering off the site.


Wow! I wasted 5 years of math, physics, thermodynamics, and other science courses only to find out weather isn't science.... :(

I do have a magic 8-ball, though! ;-)

Image
Last edited by wxman57 on Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#230 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:02 pm

Toadstool wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Cool I can now see how many post I'v made. 8,100+!

As for this system I would say a shift more westward or west-northwestwrad over the next 24 to 36 hours. Taking it south of Cuba(Kind of like dennis)Then moving northward after 30 hours.

The shear is still hitting it pretty hard...Which is keeping the west side from organizing.

I would say a track west of the Gfs looks good.


I agree, the shear really is influencing the system.


any possibility of this thing pulling a Chris over the next 24 hours with the shear and the proximity to the big islands????
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

#231 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:02 pm

southerngale...much agreed with your statemtent..Until you LIVE the destruction, do be happy or cheering.
0 likes   

Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#232 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Toadstool wrote:
I think that's the main problem, weather isn't science. But I agree, keep the bickering off the site.


Wow! I wasted 5 years of math, physics, thermodynamics, and other science courses only to find out weather isn't science.... :(

I do have a magic 8-ball, though! ;-)


Weather is the science of predicting chaos.
0 likes   

User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#233 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:04 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Toadstool wrote:
I think that's the main problem, weather isn't science. But I agree, keep the bickering off the site.


Wow! I wasted 5 years of math, physics, thermodynamics, and other science courses only to find out weather isn't science.... :(

I do have a magic 8-ball, though! ;-)


The problem seems to be many newer posters do not quite understand the way this board works. Then with so much going on, mature posters fall into the name game. Please read the rules clearly stated up front, or remember who you are if you are a vet and set the example.
0 likes   

Toadstool
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 264
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:46 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

#234 Postby Toadstool » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:04 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Toadstool wrote:
I think that's the main problem, weather isn't science. But I agree, keep the bickering off the site.


Wow! I wasted 5 years of math, physics, thermodynamics, and other science courses only to find out weather isn't science.... :(

I do have a magic 8-ball, though! ;-)


Weather is the science of predicting chaos.


I agree, Pro Mets are doing their best and making progress, I just think more money and progress should be devoted to make it into a real science.
0 likes   

User avatar
webke
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 290
Age: 70
Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:39 pm
Location: North Myrtle Beach SC

#235 Postby webke » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:04 pm

All this and the models put aside, Just what do the mets on this board see this thing going with the shift to the northeast.
Thanks in advance.
0 likes   

User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

#236 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:05 pm

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3249
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#237 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:06 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Toadstool wrote:
I think that's the main problem, weather isn't science. But I agree, keep the bickering off the site.


Wow! I wasted 5 years of math, physics, thermodynamics, and other science courses only to find out weather isn't science.... :(

I do have a magic 8-ball, though! ;-)



I'm glad some of you guys still have a sensor of humor. I love it.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#238 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:07 pm

Did anybody notice the new surface low feature the NHC added. The low is just off teh FL coast? What effect if any will this play on our system?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
0 likes   

Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#239 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:09 pm

gatorcane wrote:Did anybody notice the new surface low feature the NHC added. The low is just off teh FL coast? What effect if any will this play on our system?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

YEP

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88718

That's what I was wondering, If it were to develope, It would have to infuence Ernie even if it went fish.
Last edited by Stormavoider on Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
all_we_know_is_FALLING
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:06 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow...
Contact:

#240 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:10 pm

The local news in Memphis is even talking about Ernesto.

Seeing about the "rain chances" it might bring. If it makes landfall in AL or FLA, then I doubt much rain or wind would make it into the Mid South.

After landfall the storm would likely head NE, right?
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: convergencezone2, IsabelaWeather, Lizzytiz1, Teban54 and 55 guests