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orangeblood wrote:Very disappointing pattern developing on the models....AO, EPO forecast to pop positive again, after this week most of the ensembles lock any below normal temps on the other side of the globe, and just as the MJO was trekking into the very favorable phases for cold/stormy US weather, it crashes into the 'circle of death'. Not good!!!
srainhoutx wrote:Careful with those AO predictions. There are other factors at work on a Hemispheric scale such as very strong warming in at the Stratospheric level. The current warming event is the strongest we have seen so far this Winter Season.
Portastorm wrote:Pardon me for venting ... BUT ... we can get a freakin' January hurricane in the Atlantic for the first time in half a century ... but we can't get snow in Austin.
gpsnowman wrote:Portastorm wrote:Pardon me for venting ... BUT ... we can get a freakin' January hurricane in the Atlantic for the first time in half a century ... but we can't get snow in Austin.
Portastorm wrote:If anyone had doubts about the GFS' ability to handle the current pattern ... just compare the overnight 0z op run with the just issued 12z run. Look at the surface low depiction for this weekend over Texas. The 0z run had the surface low just west of Austin. The 12z run has it 125 miles south of Brownsville. What's a difference of 400-some miles between friends, right?!
Portastorm wrote:If anyone had doubts about the GFS' ability to handle the current pattern ... just compare the overnight 0z op run with the just issued 12z run. Look at the surface low depiction for this weekend over Texas. The 0z run had the surface low just west of Austin. The 12z run has it 125 miles south of Brownsville. What's a difference of 400-some miles between friends, right?!
weatherdude1108 wrote:Portastorm wrote:If anyone had doubts about the GFS' ability to handle the current pattern ... just compare the overnight 0z op run with the just issued 12z run. Look at the surface low depiction for this weekend over Texas. The 0z run had the surface low just west of Austin. The 12z run has it 125 miles south of Brownsville. What's a difference of 400-some miles between friends, right?!
I just saw that. What in the world?!?!![]()
How on Earth are our trusted experts supposed to base forecasts on that kind of output?![]()
I have noticed during the most recent weather events that the GFS tends to move troughs (or other weather systems) around different latitudes in each successive run, not having it right until the day of.
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