Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Brent]

Can the GFS win out for once?

[Ntxw]

If it's worth anything, the Canadian looks a bit like the GFS now with maybe snow from I-20 N towards the Red River and NW. 850s are more than efficient to produce above our heads

So does the Ukmet with the precip. But I can't tell what the surface temperatures are with the free stuff. 850s is cold, 540 thickness is in central Texas

[Ralph's Weather]

06Z GFS looks like it shifted towards the Euro. Things look more suppressed, at least the cold is there.

[orangeblood]

Great Article explaining our frustrations with the GFS, why the Euro is King, and why the lack of leadership and vision has hindered the GFS from earning the throne!!!

http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/69/1/10.1063/PT.3.3046

[orangeblood]

Very disappointing pattern developing on the models....AO, EPO forecast to pop positive again, after this week most of the ensembles lock any below normal temps on the other side of the globe, and just as the MJO was trekking into the very favorable phases for cold/stormy US weather, it crashes into the 'circle of death'. Not good!!!

[srainhoutx]

Very disappointing pattern developing on the models....AO, EPO forecast to pop positive again, after this week most of the ensembles lock any below normal temps on the other side of the globe, and just as the MJO was trekking into the very favorable phases for cold/stormy US weather, it crashes into the 'circle of death'. Not good!!!

Careful with those AO predictions. There are other factors at work on a Hemispheric scale such as very strong warming at the Stratospheric level. The current warming event is the strongest we have seen so far this Winter Season.

[Ralph's Weather]

Careful with those AO predictions. There are other factors at work on a Hemispheric scale such as very strong warming in at the Stratospheric level. The current warming event is the strongest we have seen so far this Winter Season.

That is a pretty impressive warming episode and that will likely offset the lack of tropical forcing.

[orangeblood]

That warming doesn't necessarily turn the Planet cold by itself....

Just look at the Stratosphere in 1997-98, above normal warming throughout the winter months but never translated to cold in the Lower 48. The Pacific just overwhelmed the pattern that year and it appears to be repeating itself....



This year

[Portastorm]

Pardon me for venting ... BUT ... we can get a freakin' January hurricane in the Atlantic for the first time in half a century ... but we can't get snow in Austin.

[orangeblood]

Monday's system is starting to become more potent on model runs....pretty impressive Arctic front blasting through with post-frontal precip breaking out in sub-freezing surface temps

[gpsnowman]

Pardon me for venting ... BUT ... we can get a freakin' January hurricane in the Atlantic for the first time in half a century ... but we can't get snow in Austin.

That is crazy. Looks like the "A" hurricane came early this year. On to "B"!!

[Tireman4]

Pardon me for venting ... BUT ... we can get a freakin' January hurricane in the Atlantic for the first time in half a century ... but we can't get snow in Austin.

That is crazy. Looks like the "A" hurricane came early this year. On to "B"!![/quote



What in the world is going on? Gotta blame Wxman 57 for this. He is tinkering with the thermostat and it is acting crazy

[Portastorm]

If anyone had doubts about the GFS' ability to handle the current pattern ... just compare the overnight 0z op run with the just issued 12z run. Look at the surface low depiction for this weekend over Texas. The 0z run had the surface low just west of Austin. The 12z run has it 125 miles south of Brownsville. What's a difference of 400-some miles between friends, right?!

[dhweather]

CAT 1 IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC !!!!! Alex is born!

Nobody had that one coming.

[Ntxw]

If anyone had doubts about the GFS' ability to handle the current pattern ... just compare the overnight 0z op run with the just issued 12z run. Look at the surface low depiction for this weekend over Texas. The 0z run had the surface low just west of Austin. The 12z run has it 125 miles south of Brownsville. What's a difference of 400-some miles between friends, right?!

GFS has been going towards the Euro, but thats not to say the euro has been better. Its not Cuba anymore. Also the euro had a deep S Tx snow threat this weekend some days that isn't going to happen. Model that shows least snow is the winner

[weatherdude1108]

If anyone had doubts about the GFS' ability to handle the current pattern ... just compare the overnight 0z op run with the just issued 12z run. Look at the surface low depiction for this weekend over Texas. The 0z run had the surface low just west of Austin. The 12z run has it 125 miles south of Brownsville. What's a difference of 400-some miles between friends, right?!

I just saw that. What in the world?!?!

How on Earth are our trusted experts supposed to base forecasts on that kind of output?
I have noticed during the most recent weather events that the GFS tends to move troughs (or other weather systems) around different latitudes in each successive run, not having it right until the day of.

[orangeblood]

If anyone had doubts about the GFS' ability to handle the current pattern ... just compare the overnight 0z op run with the just issued 12z run. Look at the surface low depiction for this weekend over Texas. The 0z run had the surface low just west of Austin. The 12z run has it 125 miles south of Brownsville. What's a difference of 400-some miles between friends, right?!

I just saw that. What in the world?!?!

How on Earth are our trusted experts supposed to base forecasts on that kind of output?
I have noticed during the most recent weather events that the GFS tends to move troughs (or other weather systems) around different latitudes in each successive run, not having it right until the day of.

Read the article I posted above, explains most everything you need to know about why the GFS is what it is....pretty simple explanation, it's run by the United State Government!

[hriverajr]

Like I said before.... if you want cold air well down into Texas you need decent HP's We have had very little of that this winter.. look at Canada right now.. Nada... Also flow seems so fast any cold air that comes down seems to be routed rather quickly. I don't know if this is going to change honestly. With this pattern we need cold air northwest of here, and strong H500 disturbance. Air positioned due north of here which in other more typical winters could reach us, will not. So when I saw the shift to a bit more eastern based cold... I was like meh...

You don't need models to seem whats happening.... Besides past five days they have been pretty useless up to this point.

[dhweather]

Sure, there's plenty of time for winter storms to happen, but we are just about at halftime. I wonder at what point/if Joe Bastardi will admit "we were wrong" ?

[northjaxpro]

Yeah we have a very progressive, split flow pattern across much of the CONUS currently. The -AO along with the + PNA, is bringing down very transient cold shots down into the Eastern CONUS in January at this juncture.

But, we have yet to get a very large discharge of arctic air to drop south into the CONUS just yet. It appears the split flow pattern is locked in place for the time being.

I agree that a really good discharge of arctic air has to settle in place in most instances, for Texas and the Deep South to have the best chance of seeing a very significant winter storm. This year especially this is the case, given the series of Southern Stream storm systems riding along the subtropical jet. We have seen several of these systems already this season, but we have lacked the deep, arctic airmass to be in place for these southern stream systems to undercut them to produce wintry fun.

Hang in there. We still have February to get through, so we will see if we can get a 1050ish mb High to drop down south.