ATL: IRMA - Models

[txwatcher91]

Through hour 36 the GFS is a hair north. Would be good news for the islands as small shifts north could be the difference between hurricane force winds and 100+ sustained winds.

[Meteorcane]

18z GFS is running this should have some of the data incorporated into it..

From the discussion: Six hourly upper-air soundings began at 1800 UTC today over the
central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude
trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently sampling
the environment around Irma, and these data will be included in
tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.

I don't know if they'll have much because the soundings are 1800UTC as well.

dont worry, data giets assimilated almost in real times.

Yep the 18Z soundings were launched around 17Z (most of the tropospheric data is transmitted by 18Z), and the NCEP has several hours to further QC the data before the GFS is initialized.

[Alyono]

Through hour 36 the GFS is a hair north. Would be good news for the islands as small shifts north could be the difference between hurricane force winds and 100+ sustained winds.

turning it north far too quickly compared to the other models. Discount it

[AxaltaRacing24]

[AxaltaRacing24]

[Kingarabian]

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[AxaltaRacing24]

[Steve]

Through hour 36 the GFS is a hair north. Would be good news for the islands as small shifts north could be the difference between hurricane force winds and 100+ sustained winds.

turning it north far too quickly compared to the other models. Discount it

Looked like it was maybe riding/hooking just north of the islands as the track smoothes a little more WNW again and runs the north side of Hispaniola through 66 and aiming right at the southern Bahamas. But will it pull north, south or go through them?!

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS coming in slightly NW of the last run at hour 72. Hmmm.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS a bit more north:

[Aric Dunn]

Through hour 36 the GFS is a hair north. Would be good news for the islands as small shifts north could be the difference between hurricane force winds and 100+ sustained winds.

turning it north far too quickly compared to the other models. Discount it

Looked like it was maybe riding/hooking just north of the islands as the track smooths a little more WNW again and runs the north side of Hispaniola through 66 and aiming right at the southern Bahamas. But will it pull north, south or go through them?!

remember there is a lot of new data .. so some changes are likely..

[xironman]

That's a monster trough, DC is going to have temps 20 degrees below normal on Wednesday.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[CrazyC83]

That's a monster trough, DC is going to have temps 20 degrees below normal on Wednesday.

That has the new balloon data from the Midwest as well?

[AxaltaRacing24]

[txwatcher91]

turning it north far too quickly compared to the other models. Discount it

Looked like it was maybe riding/hooking just north of the islands as the track smooths a little more WNW again and runs the north side of Hispaniola through 66 and aiming right at the southern Bahamas. But will it pull north, south or go through them?!

remember there is a lot of new data .. so some changes are likely..

There’s no need to discount it. The trend started at 12z with further north adjustments and 18z is continuing that trend. This is very significant especially with upper air data assimilated in.

[Blown Away]

Could the lack of the dip early be the reason for the arrival time a bit sooner? Straighter line?

[Steve]

Bad run in progress for the Bahamas. Not sure if this verifies or not.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

[Frank P]

trough is gone at H078

[ronjon]

Trof lifting out on GFS already by 72 hrs.