ATL: IRMA - Models

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Preemptivestrike
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6061 Postby Preemptivestrike » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:40 pm

WAcyclone wrote:
forecasterjack wrote:We just added ECMWF simulated satellite to weather.us for free! Check it out!
IR: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html
WV: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html


This is incredible! I have never seen such a detailed ECMWF IR forecast :eek:

Image

Yeah "if" this is right watch out SE Coast of FL.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6062 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:41 pm

Through hour 36 the GFS is a hair north. Would be good news for the islands as small shifts north could be the difference between hurricane force winds and 100+ sustained winds.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6063 Postby Meteorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:41 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Steve wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:18z GFS is running this should have some of the data incorporated into it..


From the discussion: Six hourly upper-air soundings began at 1800 UTC today over the
central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude
trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently sampling
the environment around Irma, and these data will be included in
tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.

I don't know if they'll have much because the soundings are 1800UTC as well.


dont worry, data giets assimilated almost in real times.


Yep the 18Z soundings were launched around 17Z (most of the tropospheric data is transmitted by 18Z), and the NCEP has several hours to further QC the data before the GFS is initialized.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6064 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:42 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:Through hour 36 the GFS is a hair north. Would be good news for the islands as small shifts north could be the difference between hurricane force winds and 100+ sustained winds.


turning it north far too quickly compared to the other models. Discount it
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6065 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:42 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6066 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:45 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6067 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:46 pm

forecasterjack wrote:We just added ECMWF simulated satellite to weather.us for free! Check it out!
IR: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html
WV: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html


Thank you so much to you and your company for making the Euro high res freely available.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6068 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:48 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6069 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:49 pm

Alyono wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Through hour 36 the GFS is a hair north. Would be good news for the islands as small shifts north could be the difference between hurricane force winds and 100+ sustained winds.


turning it north far too quickly compared to the other models. Discount it


Looked like it was maybe riding/hooking just north of the islands as the track smoothes a little more WNW again and runs the north side of Hispaniola through 66 and aiming right at the southern Bahamas. But will it pull north, south or go through them?!
Last edited by Steve on Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6070 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:49 pm

GFS coming in slightly NW of the last run at hour 72. Hmmm.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6071 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:49 pm

18z GFS a bit more north:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6072 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:50 pm

Steve wrote:
Alyono wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Through hour 36 the GFS is a hair north. Would be good news for the islands as small shifts north could be the difference between hurricane force winds and 100+ sustained winds.


turning it north far too quickly compared to the other models. Discount it


Looked like it was maybe riding/hooking just north of the islands as the track smooths a little more WNW again and runs the north side of Hispaniola through 66 and aiming right at the southern Bahamas. But will it pull north, south or go through them?!


remember there is a lot of new data .. so some changes are likely..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6073 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:50 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


That's a monster trough, DC is going to have temps 20 degrees below normal on Wednesday.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6074 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:50 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6075 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:51 pm

xironman wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


That's a monster trough, DC is going to have temps 20 degrees below normal on Wednesday.


That has the new balloon data from the Midwest as well?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6076 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:52 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6077 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Steve wrote:
Alyono wrote:
turning it north far too quickly compared to the other models. Discount it


Looked like it was maybe riding/hooking just north of the islands as the track smooths a little more WNW again and runs the north side of Hispaniola through 66 and aiming right at the southern Bahamas. But will it pull north, south or go through them?!


remember there is a lot of new data .. so some changes are likely..


There’s no need to discount it. The trend started at 12z with further north adjustments and 18z is continuing that trend. This is very significant especially with upper air data assimilated in.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6078 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:53 pm

Could the lack of the dip early be the reason for the arrival time a bit sooner? Straighter line?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6079 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:53 pm

Bad run in progress for the Bahamas. Not sure if this verifies or not.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6080 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:53 pm

trough is gone at H078
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