ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Preemptivestrike
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 15
Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:20 pm
Location: Knoxville, TN.

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6061 Postby Preemptivestrike » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:40 pm

WAcyclone wrote:
forecasterjack wrote:We just added ECMWF simulated satellite to weather.us for free! Check it out!
IR: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html
WV: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html


This is incredible! I have never seen such a detailed ECMWF IR forecast :eek:

Image

Yeah "if" this is right watch out SE Coast of FL.
0 likes   
Top
txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6062 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:41 pm

Through hour 36 the GFS is a hair north. Would be good news for the islands as small shifts north could be the difference between hurricane force winds and 100+ sustained winds.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6063 Postby Meteorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:41 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Steve wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:18z GFS is running this should have some of the data incorporated into it..


From the discussion: Six hourly upper-air soundings began at 1800 UTC today over the
central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude
trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently sampling
the environment around Irma, and these data will be included in
tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.

I don't know if they'll have much because the soundings are 1800UTC as well.


dont worry, data giets assimilated almost in real times.


Yep the 18Z soundings were launched around 17Z (most of the tropospheric data is transmitted by 18Z), and the NCEP has several hours to further QC the data before the GFS is initialized.
2 likes   
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6064 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:42 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:Through hour 36 the GFS is a hair north. Would be good news for the islands as small shifts north could be the difference between hurricane force winds and 100+ sustained winds.


turning it north far too quickly compared to the other models. Discount it
1 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6065 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:42 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6066 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:45 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15829
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6067 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:46 pm

forecasterjack wrote:We just added ECMWF simulated satellite to weather.us for free! Check it out!
IR: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html
WV: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html


Thank you so much to you and your company for making the Euro high res freely available.
10 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6068 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:48 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9591
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6069 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:49 pm

Alyono wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Through hour 36 the GFS is a hair north. Would be good news for the islands as small shifts north could be the difference between hurricane force winds and 100+ sustained winds.


turning it north far too quickly compared to the other models. Discount it


Looked like it was maybe riding/hooking just north of the islands as the track smoothes a little more WNW again and runs the north side of Hispaniola through 66 and aiming right at the southern Bahamas. But will it pull north, south or go through them?!
Last edited by Steve on Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6070 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:49 pm

GFS coming in slightly NW of the last run at hour 72. Hmmm.
1 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15829
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6071 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:49 pm

18z GFS a bit more north:

Image
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6072 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:50 pm

Steve wrote:
Alyono wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Through hour 36 the GFS is a hair north. Would be good news for the islands as small shifts north could be the difference between hurricane force winds and 100+ sustained winds.


turning it north far too quickly compared to the other models. Discount it


Looked like it was maybe riding/hooking just north of the islands as the track smooths a little more WNW again and runs the north side of Hispaniola through 66 and aiming right at the southern Bahamas. But will it pull north, south or go through them?!


remember there is a lot of new data .. so some changes are likely..
3 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2521
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6073 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:50 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


That's a monster trough, DC is going to have temps 20 degrees below normal on Wednesday.
1 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6074 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:50 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6075 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:51 pm

xironman wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


That's a monster trough, DC is going to have temps 20 degrees below normal on Wednesday.


That has the new balloon data from the Midwest as well?
1 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6076 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:52 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6077 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Steve wrote:
Alyono wrote:
turning it north far too quickly compared to the other models. Discount it


Looked like it was maybe riding/hooking just north of the islands as the track smooths a little more WNW again and runs the north side of Hispaniola through 66 and aiming right at the southern Bahamas. But will it pull north, south or go through them?!


remember there is a lot of new data .. so some changes are likely..


There’s no need to discount it. The trend started at 12z with further north adjustments and 18z is continuing that trend. This is very significant especially with upper air data assimilated in.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10140
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6078 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:53 pm

Could the lack of the dip early be the reason for the arrival time a bit sooner? Straighter line?
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9591
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6079 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:53 pm

Bad run in progress for the Bahamas. Not sure if this verifies or not.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100
0 likes   
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2772
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6080 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:53 pm

trough is gone at H078
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 47 guests