ATL: IRMA - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

Ouch...Euro Crushes Key Largo on a NNW heading. This is not going to end well. I think the Euro just put the East trend discussion to bed.

Within 5 days, hard to argue the ECMWF this season...but up to Irma these next couple days + the shortwave to see where it is with respect to FL before that window begins to open.

[South Texas Storms]

Pretty good consensus for 4-5 days out between most of the models of a landfall near Miami and then a track up or just off the east coast of Florida.

[gtalum]

Just when we were getting a consensus the Euro goes and throws a wrench in things.

It's basically in consensus with GFS and the official NHC track.

[TheStormExpert]

Sorry y'all, spoke too soon!

[miamijaaz]

Euro exists to the Atlantic at around St. Augustine at 120 HRS. That's a lot of inland real estate it goes over.

Edit: More like Daytona.

[tolakram]

[AutoPenalti]

If you want to extrapolate the track a bit, it would essentially put Metro Dade and Broward in the eye AND, I believe, the NE quadrant.

I really wish Euro wasn't 24 hours though...

[CronkPSU]

Euro exists to the Atlantic at around St. Augustine at 120 HRS. That's a lot of inland real estate it goes over.

would head over the Everglades and then clip Orlando...would come right over my house

[Raebie]

Now just offshore of Florida at 120. Would be nice to know the path it took to get there.

[Otown_Wx]

Hello,
This is my first ever post here on Storm 2K!! Been on site since Charley here in Orlando and want to say this is the best forum out there!! Thanks for keeping us informed on whats going on as this is a dangerous situation for all here in the mainland. Have noticed models flip flooping everywhere but wanted to say no matter what we have to stop looking at a certain point. The storm is over 400 miles in diameter so pretty much the whole state of Florida will be impacted someway somehow. Wanted to ask since im no expert what type of winds would we realistically feel here in Orlando. Fox35 said at least 100mph earlier in morning. Wanted to see how valid that statement was. Keep up the good work guys doing great.

[bg1]

Keep in mind 4 days ago the official NHC track had Irma passing well to the north of the Islands, things can and will likely change. Could be further east or further west or right where the ECM is painting it this afternoon.

It can but now that we have atmospheric data into the models and they seem to be coming into some sort of consensus, I doubt there will be that much of a difference.

[Steve H.]

Hoo boy. If that verifies it will be chaos for a while in the state, and points north

[ava_ati]

Euro exists to the Atlantic at around St. Augustine at 120 HRS. That's a lot of inland real estate it goes over.

Closer to Daytona in that run... either way worst case scenario for the entire east coast of Florida

[Vdogg]

Really wish the Euro wasn't 24 hr periods. Not enough detail. Can't tell if it's heading N or NNE after it hits Florida.

[tolakram]

Really wish the Euro wasn't 24 he periods. Not enough detail. Can't tell if it's heading N or NNE after it hits Florida.

The eye hugs the east coast, on shore, exiting near Daytona.

[Stangfriik]

Those ensembles show a marked shift back to a threat centered very near Miami, FL. They are more consolidated now, so I think GFS is honing in. For all the people trying to scoff at this down in FL (the Matthew 2, blah blah blah folks), maybe they'll get a wakeup call in this or succeeding runs? Some people I know, know to check with me for advice because they know I am always ahead of the curve (props to S2K for that). Other people believe what they hear or panic off of Facebook spaghetti plots or whatever. 12Z trends so far are definitely not good for SE FL. And as I said earlier, we're now getting to the point with the models where they will become more accurate with every 6 or 12 hour increment. Let people squawk and say or post what they want on social media. Luckily all of us already know better.

FWIW, 12Z NAVGEM is filling in. 96 hours has it right over Islamorada and heading for the Everglades which it hits from the South. It stays in Florida all the way to 114 hours where the eastern eyewall is coming back offshore around New Smyrna Beach. This is a bad track for metro Orlando where most of the metro should probably expect Cat 1 at a minimum (though NAVGEM is eh at best). 120 Hours it's right over Jacksonville Beach with a little bit over 1/2 of the eye offshore. That's a good 6 hour ride along the coast with both sides of the eyewall.

It pulls back in on the GA Coast for good.

Well that's reassuring being in New Smyrna lol

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

[tolakram]

Second landfall GA/SC border @ 132 hours

[gtalum]

Really wish the Euro wasn't 24 he periods. Not enough detail. Can't tell if it's heading N or NNE after it hits Florida.

Looks pretty darn close to due north to me.

[RL3AO]

NHC



Euro



NHC



HWRF



CMC



GEFS




Make no mistake. We have a damn good consensus now.