ATL: IRMA - Models

[ronjon]

Someone needs to post the high resolution Euro - Forecasterjack you around?

[rockyman]

Really wish the Euro wasn't 24 he periods. Not enough detail. Can't tell if it's heading N or NNE after it hits Florida.

Looks pretty darn close to due north to me.

Higher res Euro is running here:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/fl ... 0000z.html

Looks like it moves inland south of Miami and exits around Port St Lucie

[gtalum]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

It's not "right up the spine". It enters SSW of miami and exits around Daytona. If this track verifies the entire Metro SEFL is in the eastern eyewall though. It's also basically in consensus with GFS and the official NHC track.

[Stormcenter]

Good post Dean4Storms

Keep in mind 4 days ago the official NHC track had Irma passing well to the north of the Islands, things can and will likely change. Could be further east or further west or right where the ECM is painting it this afternoon.

[chris_fit]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

It's not "right up the spine". It enters SSW of miami and exits around Daytona. If this track verifies the entire Metro SEFL is in the eastern eyewall though.

The worst possible scenario I believe

[tolakram]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

Not the spine. Very crude drawing based on what I'm seeing via Weatherbell. Not an exact track. I was also wrong, it exits near Port St Lucie though it appears to be curving westish as it does.

[Vdogg]

Really wish the Euro wasn't 24 he periods. Not enough detail. Can't tell if it's heading N or NNE after it hits Florida.

Looks pretty darn close to due north to me.

I think so too, just hard to tell with the curvature of the state.

[Hurricane Andrew]

With the wind core size of this thing, 50 miles may make all the difference. 50 east? C1-2 winds over SEFL, which while brutal, are not flattening. 50 west? C3-4, perhaps gusting to 5. Widespread, near-complete destruction in the path of the inner eyeball.

[NFLnut]

This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

I respect your knowledge and input. But my definition of "right up the spine" is going up the middle of the state. The latest consensus of all of these models is Miami/Ft Lauderdale getting the western eyewall at a minimum and then scraping the coast with the NE quadrant (hopefully) offshore.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905498712130166784




Based off the latest Euro run

[Michele B]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

Not the spine. Very crude drawing based on what I'm seeing via Weatherbell. Not an exact track. I was also wrong, it exits near Port St Lucie though it appears to be curving westish as it does.

If this holds, this IS Irmageddon!

This takes it over the ENTIRE Southern FL's most populated metro centers. Essentially wiping out entire big cities and towns and financial entities....buildings, businesses, infrastructure.

My God, My God.....

[RL3AO]

Good post Dean4Storms

Keep in mind 4 days ago the official NHC track had Irma passing well to the north of the Islands, things can and will likely change. Could be further east or further west or right where the ECM is painting it this afternoon.

I guess we have different ideas of what "well north of the islands" means.

[chris_fit]

It' the NAVGEM but it's up the spine of FL with a decent shift W....

Trend

[tolakram]

Here we go, much better thanks to weather.us. While I'm posting these keep in mind this is just one model run, and I'm documenting it, not saying this will happen.

[KWT]

Very strong consensus at last regardi ng track and strength of Irma, looks like S.Florida then general northwards motion either up the coast or just offshore. Likely to have monster winds regardless of landfall locations and most models have this 4/5, basically a mix of Andrews/Labour day storm (with a pressure likely inbetween the two)

ECM 12z has 140mph gusts in Miami by the way...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Likely sustained winds of 100-120mph for much of the SEFL coast, with gusts to 140-150+, correct? (ECM verbatim)

[PerfectStorm]

Any professional estimates of wind speeds in Hillsborough County based on the Spine/East Coast track?

[Patrick99]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

Not the spine. Very crude drawing based on what I'm seeing via Weatherbell. Not an exact track. I was also wrong, it exits near Port St Lucie though it appears to be curving westish as it does.

Please let that not hold. I am absolutely sick right now.

[AutoPenalti]

Not for the faint-hearted.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

Not the spine. Very crude drawing based on what I'm seeing via Weatherbell. Not an exact track. I was also wrong, it exits near Port St Lucie though it appears to be curving westish as it does.

Please let that not hold. I am absolutely sick right now.

Patrick, you need to think about getting out. I am dead serious. Not trying to scare you, or anyone else, but you do not want to mess with this thing.