ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

is it me or does it look south on this run?

Both south and west.

[tolakram]

GFS has to be dramatic with shifts.

[BucMan2]

Thank you Sir

[stormreader]

West

GFS beginning to catch up with the west trends. Its about time.

[tarheelprogrammer]

There is now good consensus among the top three models, the ECMWF, the UKMET, and the Took the GFS a long time to catch up, but it is finally there. Prayers to Florida from NC.

[p1nheadlarry]

911mb at 48hrs.....not good!

Yeah, falling pressure. My hunch is that the storm might very well come in as a Cat 5. And a solid CAT 5 at that. Will leave it at that.

It's hard to gauge a return period for events like this because we only have a short record and question marks about other storms before the satellite era. More time has passed between Irma and Andrew than Camille and Andrew...food for thought in a warming globe...

[gatorcane]

Turning north:

[tolakram]

[FLpanhandle91]

Bad run for Miami.

[RL3AO]

My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.

Which is why the NHC has pretty much ignored it for 3 or 4 days now. The signs were there, but too many have been showing "all the models" and assuming each outcome was equally likely.

[tolakram]

[Langinbang187]

Looks like the stubborn GFS has finally admitted defeat here. Brutal run for Miami.

[SFLcane]

Horrific run man for SFL just wow...

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS shows a definite slow down before the turn north this run. Doesn't look as quick and unrealistic.

[Jevo]

+72 - 78 ... In line with the NHC... Perhaps they are adding more weight to the GFS than we are assuming...

[Hurrilurker]

Bad run for Miami.

You really couldn't draw up a more nightmarish scenario if you tried.

[stormreader]

911mb at 48hrs.....not good!

Yeah, falling pressure. My hunch is that the storm might very well come in as a Cat 5. And a solid CAT 5 at that. Will leave it at that.

It's hard to gauge a return period for events like this because we only have a short record and question marks about other storms before the satellite era. More time has passed between Irma and Andrew than Camille and Andrew...food for thought in a warming globe...

Another thing, this storm was major in the far distant Atlantic where sea surface temps, interactions with mid-oceanic ULL's usually don't allow for that. Its been CAT 5 for days now. Barring a landfall in Cuba, I don't think I see this reducing down to 4. No shear forecast, I don't think, till further north after landfall. Also, looking at latest loop, I think the eye looks a little more symmetrical now than it has for the last 24 hours or so. Eye structure hasn't looked perfect lately, but pressure remained at about 922mb. This one is one for the books.

[miamijaaz]

It is remarkable how good the NHC is with their tracks. They release a track at 5 pm and the GFS essentially mimics it 30 minutes later.

[SFLcane]

eastcoast from keys up north is going to get hammered bigtime

[tolakram]