ATL: IRMA - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
BucMan2 wrote:is it me or does it look south on this run?
Both south and west.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
GFS has to be dramatic with shifts.
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stormreader
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
tolakram wrote:West
GFS beginning to catch up with the west trends. Its about time.
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
There is now good consensus among the top three models, the ECMWF, the UKMET, and the 
Took the GFS a long time to catch up, but it is finally there. Prayers to Florida from NC.
Took the GFS a long time to catch up, but it is finally there. Prayers to Florida from NC.
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p1nheadlarry
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
stormreader wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:911mb at 48hrs.....not good!
Yeah, falling pressure. My hunch is that the storm might very well come in as a Cat 5. And a solid CAT 5 at that. Will leave it at that.
It's hard to gauge a return period for events like this because we only have a short record and question marks about other storms before the satellite era. More time has passed between Irma and Andrew than Camille and Andrew...food for thought in a warming globe...
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Turning north: 
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
MetroMike wrote:My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.
Which is why the NHC has pretty much ignored it for 3 or 4 days now. The signs were there, but too many have been showing "all the models" and assuming each outcome was equally likely.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Langinbang187
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Looks like the stubborn GFS has finally admitted defeat here. Brutal run for Miami.
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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
GFS shows a definite slow down before the turn north this run. Doesn't look as quick and unrealistic.
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Jevo
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
+72 - 78 ... In line with the NHC... Perhaps they are adding more weight to the GFS than we are assuming...
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Hurrilurker
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
FLpanhandle91 wrote:
Bad run for Miami.
You really couldn't draw up a more nightmarish scenario if you tried.
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stormreader
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
p1nheadlarry wrote:stormreader wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:911mb at 48hrs.....not good!
Yeah, falling pressure. My hunch is that the storm might very well come in as a Cat 5. And a solid CAT 5 at that. Will leave it at that.
It's hard to gauge a return period for events like this because we only have a short record and question marks about other storms before the satellite era. More time has passed between Irma and Andrew than Camille and Andrew...food for thought in a warming globe...
Another thing, this storm was major in the far distant Atlantic where sea surface temps, interactions with mid-oceanic ULL's usually don't allow for that. Its been CAT 5 for days now. Barring a landfall in Cuba, I don't think I see this reducing down to 4. No shear forecast, I don't think, till further north after landfall. Also, looking at latest loop, I think the eye looks a little more symmetrical now than it has for the last 24 hours or so. Eye structure hasn't looked perfect lately, but pressure remained at about 922mb. This one is one for the books.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
It is remarkable how good the NHC is with their tracks. They release a track at 5 pm and the GFS essentially mimics it 30 minutes later.
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