2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

It would be an interesting dig to look up ridges and front maps from late May in 2004. Florida’s rainy season started on the late side. Interested to look up NWS Miami AFDs from late May in 2004. Obviously nothing scientific in nature but definitely some similarities.

And 2004 was the hurricane season from hell for Florida especially

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1399479447582031872




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1399484239024848897

[Shell Mound]

It would be an interesting dig to look up ridges and front maps from late May in 2004. Florida’s rainy season started on the late side. Interested to look up NWS Miami AFDs from late May in 2004. Obviously nothing scientific in nature but definitely some similarities.

And 2004 was the hurricane season from hell for Florida especially

I could not locate AFDs from NWS Miami in May 2004, but I did locate the following contemporaneous discussions:

Link #1
Link #2
Link #3
Link #4
Link #5

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1399394663983894533

[USTropics]

It would be an interesting dig to look up ridges and front maps from late May in 2004. Florida’s rainy season started on the late side. Interested to look up NWS Miami AFDs from late May in 2004. Obviously nothing scientific in nature but definitely some similarities.

And 2004 was the hurricane season from hell for Florida especially

https://i.postimg.cc/qvwX65Yz/May2004850mb-Unaom-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/cC3BK4yS/May2021850mb-Unaom-1.gif

I could not locate AFDs from NWS Miami in May 2004, but I did locate the following contemporaneous discussions:

Link #1
Link #2
Link #3
Link #4
Link #5

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1399394663983894533

You can find AFDs here for any weather station: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml

For the last day of May:
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?source=MFL&year=2004&month=5&day=31&year2=2021&month2=6&day2=1&view=time&order=asc
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDMIA&e=200405311800
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDMIA&e=200405300200
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDMIA&e=200405300650
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDMIA&e=200405301800

[Kingarabian]

June Canadian seasonal has weak La Nina for ASO:



It is initializing SST anomalies @ Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 wrong though, about 0.3/0.5 degree off. It's still favoring a cooler Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 and a warmer Nino 3 and Nino 1+2. This setup has failed to materialize despite repeated model forecasts.

VP200 forecast favors a very active Atlantic hurricane season -- with a more favorable VP200 signature for July compared to what the 46 days EPS is currently showing.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

June Canadian seasonal has weak La Nina for ASO:

https://i.postimg.cc/XvDXksYJ/image.png

It is initializing SST anomalies @ Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 wrong though, about 0.3/0.5 degree off. It's still favoring a cooler Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 and a warmer Nino 3 and Nino 1+2. This setup has failed to materialize despite repeated model forecasts.

VP200 forecast favors a very active Atlantic hurricane season -- with a more favorable VP200 signature for July compared to what the 46 days EPS is currently showing.
https://i.postimg.cc/8PhHX6WD/image.png

There's some mixed signals overall...while ENSO, shear and the VP configuration it is depicting are each very favorable, the overall look of the precip density isn't too impressive, which likely has to do with the mediocre SST configuration it is showing. Bit of a -AMM look with warm Gulf of Guinea combined with an almost EOF2 +AMO. Combined, this could suppress the ITCZ and enhance stability over the MDR/deep tropics a la 2019. With that being said however, given the WAM and the look of the Pacific on the model being far less suppressive than it was that year, I'm wondering if those factors could offset the SST issues (especially WAM considering it'll likely warm up the Tropical Atlantic to sufficient levels regardless).

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1399736743847337986

[galaxy401]

Happy Hurricane season everyone. The tone will probably be different three months from now but let's hope things won't be as wild as last year!

[Shell Mound]

Link to full outlook

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1399715559701467137



 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1399715581516038149



 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1399715590231764997



 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1399715595994681344



 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1399715601883582466

[cycloneye]

The Global Hazards site highlights the Western Caribbean from June 9-15.

[Shell Mound]

June Canadian seasonal has weak La Nina for ASO:

https://i.postimg.cc/XvDXksYJ/image.png

It is initializing SST anomalies @ Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 wrong though, about 0.3/0.5 degree off. It's still favoring a cooler Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 and a warmer Nino 3 and Nino 1+2. This setup has failed to materialize despite repeated model forecasts.

VP200 forecast favors a very active Atlantic hurricane season -- with a more favorable VP200 signature for July compared to what the 46 days EPS is currently showing.
https://i.postimg.cc/8PhHX6WD/image.png

Compared to May’s run, the June CanSIPS has actually trended toward a weaker -ENSO signature by ASO, along with a more positive or warm neutral PDO. Additionally, while the coolest SST are still concentrated in Niño 3.4+4, they are far weaker (less pronounced) than on May’s run, and Niño 1+2 are actually cooler on the latest run, so if one were to extrapolate the run-to-run trend it would favour cool neutral ENSO centred in Niño 1+2 during ASO. The MDR, while still relatively cool compared to the subtropics, is also notably warmer vs. the previous run, and the ITCZ is actually wetter as well, so the overall trend is toward a more conducive setup for a hyperactive Atlantic season, as the textbook 200-mb -VE signature suggests. The very strong African monsoon depicted on the run would likely result in a warmer (eastern) MDR is suggested by the model during the peak of the season. 1999 remains a very good analog in terms of ongoing and future SST evolution in the Atlantic basin. The trend toward cool neutral ENSO vs. weak Niña and a potentially warmer PDO by peak season may actually be worse for the Florida peninsula and possibly the extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico:

The increase during neutral phases (relative to cold phases) in landfalls along the Florida and Gulf coasts for hurricanes classified as tropical storms east of 50°W allows the authors to hypothesize that a variation in the steering flow exists during neutral phases. The hypothetical variation in the steering flow seems to keep tropical cyclones forming in the eastern tropical North Atlantic on a more southerly track during a neutral ENSO phase, thereby decreasing the probability of East Coast landfalls.

Source

[captainbarbossa19]

The Global Hazards site highlights the Western Caribbean from June 9-15.

https://i.imgur.com/afl876G.jpg

Classic June. Probably CAG development. Usually something forms in this area from about June 10-25.

[Kingarabian]

Link to full outlook

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1399715601883582466




I always enjoy Tyler's twitter threads, but that's not a La Nina -VP200 configuration. In La Nina's and even cool neutral, the rising air branch isn't situated near 150E. It should be near 110E-120E. If anything this VP200 setup resembles some warm-neutral ENSO years.

This is how the -VP200 setup looked like in past La Nina and active Atlantic hurricane seasons:



Especially through July-Sept
 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1249840562041217024

[Shell Mound]

See 15:45–17:55 in particular:

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1399892939288068100




Most dynamical models are suggesting that the Atlantic Niño (-AMM) configuration will lead to suppression over the MDR during ASO.

[tolakram]

This chart is pretty much the same thing year after year now.

Tropical Atlantic Instability



Someday they'll either fix or adjust the 'normal' line.

[Category5Kaiju]

This chart is pretty much the same thing year after year now.

Tropical Atlantic Instability

https://i.imgur.com/g6KlOZQ.png

Someday they'll either fix or adjust the 'normal' line.

Yeah I specifically remember last year when during the summer something like that appeared on the instability graph and some people were very determined to say that the season would have been 2013.2

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1400244148431691779

[InfernoFlameCat]

2021 feels slow right now(2020 spoiled me) but something does appear to be brewing in the Carribbean

[AnnularCane]

2021 feels slow right now(2020 spoiled me) but something does appear to be brewing in the Carribbean

That might be because this time last year we had Cristobal.

[Shell Mound]

June Canadian seasonal has weak La Nina for ASO:

https://i.postimg.cc/XvDXksYJ/image.png

It is initializing SST anomalies @ Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 wrong though, about 0.3/0.5 degree off. It's still favoring a cooler Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 and a warmer Nino 3 and Nino 1+2. This setup has failed to materialize despite repeated model forecasts.

VP200 forecast favors a very active Atlantic hurricane season -- with a more favorable VP200 signature for July compared to what the 46 days EPS is currently showing.
https://i.postimg.cc/8PhHX6WD/image.png

There's some mixed signals overall...while ENSO, shear and the VP configuration it is depicting are each very favorable, the overall look of the precip density isn't too impressive, which likely has to do with the mediocre SST configuration it is showing. Bit of a -AMM look with warm Gulf of Guinea combined with an almost EOF2 +AMO. Combined, this could suppress the ITCZ and enhance stability over the MDR/deep tropics à la 2019.

https://i.ibb.co/WKXLL0b/cansips-apcpna-multimonth-atl-3.png
https://i.ibb.co/WcHQthg/cansips-ssta-Mean-noice-month-atl-3.png

To what degree do these models suffer from excessive feedback? If these conditions were to occur as modelled, would the effects be as suppressive as indicated?