2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stratton23]

Euro 00z is starting to join the GFS on a potential CAG setup, watching the week of the 16-18th closely

[DunedinDave]

All the models seem to want to cook something in the western Gulf, whether it’s coming from the Caribbean, or in the ICON’s run, forming in the central gulf and kicking east. Definitely looks to be setting up some big rains in the Tampa area.

[caneman]

All the models seem to want to cook something in the western Gulf, whether it’s coming from the Caribbean, or in the ICON’s run, forming in the central gulf and kicking east. Definitely looks to be setting up some big rains in the Tampa area.

Anyone have any model links they can post on this feature? Thanks

[cycloneye]

After the models failed with 91L, I wont believe anything from them until there is a robust wave on the virge to be a TD. Wont believe even with many ensemble lines from whatever model are over PR. I know the pattern will be better in the next few weeks but still that 91L epic fail on them gives me pause.

[Hayabusa]

After the models failed with 91L, I wont believe anything from them until there is a robust wave on the virge to be a TD. Wont believe even with many ensemble lines from whatever model are over PR. I know the pattern will be better in the next few weeks but still that 91L epic fail on them gives me pause.

Just like in the west pac lots of hypes this year that failed

[Stratton23]

Lots of season left, all it takes is one storm to hit the US, the difference with 91L here is the amount of sinking air across the basin as seen by the lack of convection basin wide whoch was going, the next MJO passage should give a big boost to the atlantic , models will wake up eventually

[gatorcane]

This last invest is just another reminder to proceed cautiously with the models especially the GFS and especially beyond 7 days. It's easy to look at 10, 12+ day model runs and think of the possibilities. Yet again the GFS hits Florida with a modelcane in the long-range. On social media you see many posts, even from some experienced meteorologists, talking about Gabrielle like it was going to at least become a tropical storm. It shows we rely so much on these models, though the GFS and even a few runs of the Euro even busted in the less than 168 hour range. Actually, the Euro AI model did quite well this time really never showing development.

[LarryWx]

The GEFS remains fairly active 9/13+ in the W Car/Gulf and this is during a progged continued favorable MJO.

[Nimbus]

All the models seem to want to cook something in the western Gulf, whether it’s coming from the Caribbean, or in the ICON’s run, forming in the central gulf and kicking east. Definitely looks to be setting up some big rains in the Tampa area.

Anyone have any model links they can post on this feature? Thanks

Both the ICON and GFS have the tail end of the front closing off into a low Monday.
Its happening now so worth watching the surface pressures at the buoys in the area.
Practically no convection yet.

[DunedinDave]

All the models seem to want to cook something in the western Gulf, whether it’s coming from the Caribbean, or in the ICON’s run, forming in the central gulf and kicking east. Definitely looks to be setting up some big rains in the Tampa area.

Anyone have any model links they can post on this feature? Thanks

Not as good with the copy/paste as others. I’m too old school. But the latest Euro hints at it. I’m not saying they’re predicting anything big…but they do show a lot of unsettled weather in the western Gulf in 7-10 days time. ICON and GFS hinted at a low earlier but backed off. But the Euro has been pretty consistent the last few runs with just showing a lot of moisture sitting in the western GOA down the road.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[Stratton23]

With the GEFS/ EPS potentially stalling the MJO in phases 8/1, id definitely be watching the western caribbean or GOA more over the next 10-12 days , Euro shows a ton of tropical moisture being pulled and kind of just festering in the GOA in the 10 day range, nothing big on ensembles or models yet, but worth watching as the MJO should enhance convection in the western half of the atlantic basin

[Stratton23]

18z GFS shows a broad disturbance lifting north out of the CAG and into the south/ western GOA, will be interesting to see if the MJO gets this going

[LAF92]

18z GFS shows a broad disturbance lifting north out of the CAG and into the south/ western GOA, will be interesting to see if the MJO gets this going

18 GEFS once again very active in the Gulf especially around day 11-14

[LarryWx]

18z GFS shows a broad disturbance lifting north out of the CAG and into the south/ western GOA, will be interesting to see if the MJO gets this going

18 GEFS once again very active in the Gulf especially around day 11-14

The 18Z GEFS is the most active run yet in the W Car/Gulf 9/12-end of the run! If I were living on the Gulf coast, I’d already be a bit concerned. As was earlier mentioned, this alteady has strong support from the MJO, which is progged to be in a favorable position most of, it not the rest of, this month.

I’m about to post more about the MJO, which is pretty telling, although I’m not sure which thread to post it in.

[Stratton23]

LarryWx the question is would you consider this just to be a biacy of the GFS/ GEFS as it does have a high false alarm rate of spinning up tropical systems in the western caribbean, i guess the MJO is one thing going for it though

[LarryWx]

LarryWx the question is would you consider this just to be a biacy of the GFS/ GEFS as it does have a high false alarm rate of spinning up tropical systems in the western caribbean, i guess the MJO is one thing going for it though

Great Q, Stratton! That’s a legit consideration which makes this complicated. But it’s a bit early for the late season GFS/GEFS W Car bias, the Euro/CMC ens have some activity, this was the most active GEFS yet, the MJO is quite supportive, the W Car/Gulf are untouched/boiling, and it’s already a weak La Niña at least per RONI. Also, many times when the rest of the basin is quiet near peak, the far W basin gets active. So this area and period is a major bear watch for me as of now.

[emeraldislenc]

Do most people think the Cape Verde season is over or will we see any other Cape Verde storms? Would appreciate your thoughts.

[chaser1]

Do most people think the Cape Verde season is over or will we see any other Cape Verde storms? Would appreciate your thoughts.

I guess that depends on how specific your question is. Are you simply asking whether most think that another tropical cyclone will form east of 40W, regardless how long lived it is or regardless of where it tracks? If that were the question, I'd say that we will see another T.S. form fairly far east in the Atlantic basin but that I don't think that it will track west of 60W. Or, is your question whether a Cape Verde storm will develop AND track far enough to the West to impact the Lesser Antilles? To that question, I would guess "no"

[chaser1]

18z GFS shows a broad disturbance lifting north out of the CAG and into the south/ western GOA, will be interesting to see if the MJO gets this going

18 GEFS once again very active in the Gulf especially around day 11-14

The 18Z GEFS is the most active run yet in the W Car/Gulf 9/12-end of the run! If I were living on the Gulf coast, I’d already be a bit concerned. As was earlier mentioned, this alteady has strong support from the MJO, which is progged to be in a favorable position most of, it not the rest of, this month.

I’m about to post more about the MJO, which is pretty telling, although I’m not sure which thread to post it in.

For clarification, are you (and others) suggesting the MJO being progged to be in a favorable position regardless of whether the signal were inside or outside of the circle?

[LarryWx]

18 GEFS once again very active in the Gulf especially around day 11-14

The 18Z GEFS is the most active run yet in the W Car/Gulf 9/12-end of the run! If I were living on the Gulf coast, I’d already be a bit concerned. As was earlier mentioned, this alteady has strong support from the MJO, which is progged to be in a favorable position most of, it not the rest of, this month.

I’m about to post more about the MJO, which is pretty telling, although I’m not sure which thread to post it in.

For clarification, are you (and others) suggesting the MJO being progged to be in a favorable position regardless of whether the signal were inside or outside of the circle?

Hey Chaser,
I’m personally referring to it whether it’s inside or not. Any recent studies I’ve done have been looking at both. My recent study of the number of TC that hit the Conus looked at both. I found that inside was not much less dangerous, if any, as outside for phase 2. I know that may seem counterintuitive though. Now perhaps if I had separated out close to the center of the circle phase 2 I might have found that less dangerous. But I didn’t and that would probably make that too small of a dataset.