2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Euro 00z is starting to join the GFS on a potential CAG setup, watching the week of the 16-18th closely
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
All the models seem to want to cook something in the western Gulf, whether it’s coming from the Caribbean, or in the ICON’s run, forming in the central gulf and kicking east. Definitely looks to be setting up some big rains in the Tampa area.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
DunedinDave wrote:All the models seem to want to cook something in the western Gulf, whether it’s coming from the Caribbean, or in the ICON’s run, forming in the central gulf and kicking east. Definitely looks to be setting up some big rains in the Tampa area.
Anyone have any model links they can post on this feature? Thanks
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
After the models failed with 91L, I wont believe anything from them until there is a robust wave on the virge to be a TD. Wont believe even with many ensemble lines from whatever model are over PR. I know the pattern will be better in the next few weeks but still that 91L epic fail on them gives me pause.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:After the models failed with 91L, I wont believe anything from them until there is a robust wave on the virge to be a TD. Wont believe even with many ensemble lines from whatever model are over PR. I know the pattern will be better in the next few weeks but still that 91L epic fail on them gives me pause.
Just like in the west pac lots of hypes this year that failed

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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Lots of season left, all it takes is one storm to hit the US, the difference with 91L here is the amount of sinking air across the basin as seen by the lack of convection basin wide whoch was going, the next MJO passage should give a big boost to the atlantic , models will wake up eventually
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
This last invest is just another reminder to proceed cautiously with the models especially the GFS and especially beyond 7 days. It's easy to look at 10, 12+ day model runs and think of the possibilities. Yet again the GFS hits Florida with a modelcane in the long-range. On social media you see many posts, even from some experienced meteorologists, talking about Gabrielle like it was going to at least become a tropical storm. It shows we rely so much on these models, though the GFS and even a few runs of the Euro even busted in the less than 168 hour range. Actually, the Euro AI model did quite well this time really never showing development.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The GEFS remains fairly active 9/13+ in the W Car/Gulf and this is during a progged continued favorable MJO.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
caneman wrote:DunedinDave wrote:All the models seem to want to cook something in the western Gulf, whether it’s coming from the Caribbean, or in the ICON’s run, forming in the central gulf and kicking east. Definitely looks to be setting up some big rains in the Tampa area.
Anyone have any model links they can post on this feature? Thanks
Both the ICON and GFS have the tail end of the front closing off into a low Monday.
Its happening now so worth watching the surface pressures at the buoys in the area.
Practically no convection yet.

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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
caneman wrote:DunedinDave wrote:All the models seem to want to cook something in the western Gulf, whether it’s coming from the Caribbean, or in the ICON’s run, forming in the central gulf and kicking east. Definitely looks to be setting up some big rains in the Tampa area.
Anyone have any model links they can post on this feature? Thanks
Not as good with the copy/paste as others. I’m too old school. But the latest Euro hints at it. I’m not saying they’re predicting anything big…but they do show a lot of unsettled weather in the western Gulf in 7-10 days time. ICON and GFS hinted at a low earlier but backed off. But the Euro has been pretty consistent the last few runs with just showing a lot of moisture sitting in the western GOA down the road.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
With the GEFS/ EPS potentially stalling the MJO in phases 8/1, id definitely be watching the western caribbean or GOA more over the next 10-12 days , Euro shows a ton of tropical moisture being pulled and kind of just festering in the GOA in the 10 day range, nothing big on ensembles or models yet, but worth watching as the MJO should enhance convection in the western half of the atlantic basin
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
18z GFS shows a broad disturbance lifting north out of the CAG and into the south/ western GOA, will be interesting to see if the MJO gets this going
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Stratton23 wrote:18z GFS shows a broad disturbance lifting north out of the CAG and into the south/ western GOA, will be interesting to see if the MJO gets this going
18 GEFS once again very active in the Gulf especially around day 11-14
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
LAF92 wrote:Stratton23 wrote:18z GFS shows a broad disturbance lifting north out of the CAG and into the south/ western GOA, will be interesting to see if the MJO gets this going
18 GEFS once again very active in the Gulf especially around day 11-14
The 18Z GEFS is the most active run yet in the W Car/Gulf 9/12-end of the run! If I were living on the Gulf coast, I’d already be a bit concerned. As was earlier mentioned, this alteady has strong support from the MJO, which is progged to be in a favorable position most of, it not the rest of, this month.
I’m about to post more about the MJO, which is pretty telling, although I’m not sure which thread to post it in.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
LarryWx the question is would you consider this just to be a biacy of the GFS/ GEFS as it does have a high false alarm rate of spinning up tropical systems in the western caribbean, i guess the MJO is one thing going for it though
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Stratton23 wrote:LarryWx the question is would you consider this just to be a biacy of the GFS/ GEFS as it does have a high false alarm rate of spinning up tropical systems in the western caribbean, i guess the MJO is one thing going for it though
Great Q, Stratton! That’s a legit consideration which makes this complicated. But it’s a bit early for the late season GFS/GEFS W Car bias, the Euro/CMC ens have some activity, this was the most active GEFS yet, the MJO is quite supportive, the W Car/Gulf are untouched/boiling, and it’s already a weak La Niña at least per RONI. Also, many times when the rest of the basin is quiet near peak, the far W basin gets active. So this area and period is a major bear watch for me as of now.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Do most people think the Cape Verde season is over or will we see any other Cape Verde storms? Would appreciate your thoughts.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
emeraldislenc wrote:Do most people think the Cape Verde season is over or will we see any other Cape Verde storms? Would appreciate your thoughts.
I guess that depends on how specific your question is. Are you simply asking whether most think that another tropical cyclone will form east of 40W, regardless how long lived it is or regardless of where it tracks? If that were the question, I'd say that we will see another T.S. form fairly far east in the Atlantic basin but that I don't think that it will track west of 60W. Or, is your question whether a Cape Verde storm will develop AND track far enough to the West to impact the Lesser Antilles? To that question, I would guess "no"
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Andy D
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
LarryWx wrote:LAF92 wrote:Stratton23 wrote:18z GFS shows a broad disturbance lifting north out of the CAG and into the south/ western GOA, will be interesting to see if the MJO gets this going
18 GEFS once again very active in the Gulf especially around day 11-14
The 18Z GEFS is the most active run yet in the W Car/Gulf 9/12-end of the run! If I were living on the Gulf coast, I’d already be a bit concerned. As was earlier mentioned, this alteady has strong support from the MJO, which is progged to be in a favorable position most of, it not the rest of, this month.
I’m about to post more about the MJO, which is pretty telling, although I’m not sure which thread to post it in.
For clarification, are you (and others) suggesting the MJO being progged to be in a favorable position regardless of whether the signal were inside or outside of the circle?
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Andy D
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
chaser1 wrote:LarryWx wrote:LAF92 wrote:18 GEFS once again very active in the Gulf especially around day 11-14
The 18Z GEFS is the most active run yet in the W Car/Gulf 9/12-end of the run! If I were living on the Gulf coast, I’d already be a bit concerned. As was earlier mentioned, this alteady has strong support from the MJO, which is progged to be in a favorable position most of, it not the rest of, this month.
I’m about to post more about the MJO, which is pretty telling, although I’m not sure which thread to post it in.
For clarification, are you (and others) suggesting the MJO being progged to be in a favorable position regardless of whether the signal were inside or outside of the circle?
Hey Chaser,
I’m personally referring to it whether it’s inside or not. Any recent studies I’ve done have been looking at both. My recent study of the number of TC that hit the Conus looked at both. I found that inside was not much less dangerous, if any, as outside for phase 2. I know that may seem counterintuitive though. Now perhaps if I had separated out close to the center of the circle phase 2 I might have found that less dangerous. But I didn’t and that would probably make that too small of a dataset.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sat Sep 06, 2025 11:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.