NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[TomballEd]

Is the new blob to the NW of the main blob the LLC developing convection?

https://i.imgur.com/LuPg5cR.gif

I believe it was. 1006 mb, it may finally have convection upstream of the center but it is still quite week.

Edit for week/weak error.

[Sanibel]

Opening back up in to a wave or slowly transitioning to West Caribbean?...

[Flwxguy86]

With more of a bend to the west, and the ridge being "centered to the northwest" I really think your gonna be looking at this storm knocking on the door of the gulf sometime next week, I think the models are gonna start catching up to that fact over the weekend and start showing it. I just hope if that is the case that some of these models that have it bomb out in to the 880's are overblown but I fear there not when its forecasted to be at 130MPH in 72 hours, with plenty of warm deep ocean to cover..I am looking forward to sunday when it seems like they will finally have a good handle on what's gonna happen.

[GCANE]

Hmm.
Seeing an interesting eddy in water-vapor imagery at just south of 15N 76W.
Shear is pretty low here and anti-cyclone is moving toward this area.

[sasha_B]

A circular eyewall (open to the southwest) was noted on the last VDM, with an eye 46 nm in diameter. Melissa is undoubtedly getting better-organised this morning, though as the NHC's discussion noted, it may be another 24 hours or so before the shear lets up enough for her to get a chance at rapid intensification.

[zzzh]

F. OPEN SW
G. C46

Latest VDM. What is going on here?

[GCANE]

Hmm.
Seeing an interesting eddy in water-vapor imagery at just south of 15N 76W.
Shear is pretty low here and anti-cyclone is moving toward this area.

Looking even more interesting on Visible satellite.
The tell will be if recon heads that way.

[kevin]

Hmm.
Seeing an interesting eddy in water-vapor imagery at just south of 15N 76W.
Shear is pretty low here and anti-cyclone is moving toward this area.

Looking even more interesting on Visible satellite.
The tell will be if recon heads that way.

I see it as well. Could pull the center farther SW over the coming hours. Not sure what that would do to the long-term track, but the recent behavior of Melissa is very intricate and imo possibly too complex/small-scale for models (even the hurricane models) to get a handle on. Even if the center relocation doesn't continue, no models (even the ones from a few hours ago) had the SSW motion that Melissa just made.

[cheezyWXguy]

Think we are seeing the very initial stages of core consolidation here, and the intense towers popping up in different areas are interesting. Not sure how long the eyewall reported by recon will last, I’d guess it’s just an intermittent feature as the system organizes and we will ultimately have a smaller core when all is said and done. That said, I wouldn’t expect that for another day or two

[cycloneye]

I recommend all to see this great video from Levi Cowan that is simply, pure 101.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1981396301444170107

[zzzh]

Latest dropsonde has 1004mb/27kt. The pressure is finally dropping

[cycloneye]

Look at the X of the 2 PM position where it is. To the left of the other points of the 11 AM track and that means at 5 PM, NHC will move slightly west the oficial track.

[kevin]

At first I thought a Jamaica landfall could prevent Melissa from becoming "too strong" (aka a cat 1 or less) before it inevitably strikes a populated area. But with that latest model cycle showing a cat 4/5 Jamaica landfall, I fear we're looking at a lose/lose and it'll be catastrophic no matter what happens. Maybe the best case scenario is a bombing out phase south of Jamaica and missing the island followed by EWRCs weakening Melissa.

[TomballEd]

With more of a bend to the west, and the ridge being "centered to the northwest" I really think your gonna be looking at this storm knocking on the door of the gulf sometime next week, I think the models are gonna start catching up to that fact over the weekend and start showing it. I just hope if that is the case that some of these models that have it bomb out in to the 880's are overblown but I fear there not when its forecasted to be at 130MPH in 72 hours, with plenty of warm deep ocean to cover..I am looking forward to sunday when it seems like they will finally have a good handle on what's gonna happen.

Shear in the Gulf will cause weakening if it did somehow make it into the Gulf. When the 40 knot plus flow is to the NW, it will actually evacuate more air and strengthen the system but 40 or 50 knots of shear will tear the system apart, especially since it will be pushing dry air into the storm. I'm not forgetting a high end Cat 2 into the Panhandle in November 1985 (Kate) or Wilma in October but I'm pretty sure it has been 40 years since a Gulf hurricane in November.

[Teban54]

At first I thought a Jamaica landfall could prevent Melissa from becoming "too strong" (aka a cat 1 or less) before it inevitably strikes a populated area. But with that latest model cycle showing a cat 4/5 Jamaica landfall, I fear we're looking at a lose/lose and it'll be catastrophic no matter what happens. Maybe the best case scenario is a bombing out phase south of Jamaica and missing the island followed by EWRCs weakening Melissa.

The best-case scenario for Melissa's impacts seems to be a Delta-esque collapse, from a pinhole Cat 4 to a weakening Cat 2 at its Yucatan landfall (that didn't even warrant retirement).

Absent that... Yeah, Melissa will most likely wreck havoc on someone no matter what, even if the target is unclear.

[Ubuntwo]

Shear in the Gulf will cause weakening if it did somehow make it into the Gulf. When the 40 knot plus flow is to the NW, it will actually evacuate more air and strengthen the system but 40 or 50 knots of shear will tear the system apart, especially since it will be pushing dry air into the storm. I'm not forgetting a high end Cat 2 into the Panhandle in November 1985 (Kate) or Wilma in October but I'm pretty sure it has been 40 years since a Gulf hurricane in November.
https://i.imgur.com/HsjFSx5.png
https://i.imgur.com/jZNTQWa.png

To your last point, I just want to add that we tied Kate's record for strongest Gulf November hurricane on record last year with Rafael.

I don't see any way this gets into the Gulf. But while those upper level winds would destroy a tropical storm or weaker system, a major hurricane would quickly accelerate & move with the flow. The impacts of those upper-level winds are diminished in this case as the system brings it outflow with it. You'd still likely get steady weakening, but it wouldn't be a quick collapse. The shear ahead of Milton was around 60kt, though "effective" shear ended up being more like 30kt due to its outflow and it still managed a cat 3 landfall.

[GCANE]

Seeing an additional consolidation of high TPW air in the EPAC.
Looks like if Melissa gets going, would likely see a second feed across Nicaragua.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[boca]

Seeing an additional consolidation of high TPW air in the EPAC.
Looks like if Melissa gets going, would likely see a second feed across Nicaragua.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

How far west do you think Melissa will go or will it turn NE once at the tip of Jamaica?

[GCANE]

Seeing an additional consolidation of high TPW air in the EPAC.
Looks like if Melissa gets going, would likely see a second feed across Nicaragua.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

How far west do you think Melissa will go or will it turn NE once at the tip of Jamaica?

Can't say at this point with any certainty.
What do you think?

[boca]

I think Melissa will either go over Jamaica or miss to the south and turn west over the weekend than turn NE and scout out due to the second trough that will finally pick her up.