NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[TomballEd]

With more of a bend to the west, and the ridge being "centered to the northwest" I really think your gonna be looking at this storm knocking on the door of the gulf sometime next week, I think the models are gonna start catching up to that fact over the weekend and start showing it. I just hope if that is the case that some of these models that have it bomb out in to the 880's are overblown but I fear there not when its forecasted to be at 130MPH in 72 hours, with plenty of warm deep ocean to cover..I am looking forward to sunday when it seems like they will finally have a good handle on what's gonna happen.

Shear in the Gulf will cause weakening if it did somehow make it into the Gulf. When the 40 knot plus flow is to the NW, it will actually evacuate more air and strengthen the system but 40 or 50 knots of shear will tear the system apart, especially since it will be pushing dry air into the storm. I'm not forgetting a high end Cat 2 into the Panhandle in November 1985 (Kate) or Wilma in October but I'm pretty sure it has been 40 years since a Gulf hurricane in November.

[Teban54]

At first I thought a Jamaica landfall could prevent Melissa from becoming "too strong" (aka a cat 1 or less) before it inevitably strikes a populated area. But with that latest model cycle showing a cat 4/5 Jamaica landfall, I fear we're looking at a lose/lose and it'll be catastrophic no matter what happens. Maybe the best case scenario is a bombing out phase south of Jamaica and missing the island followed by EWRCs weakening Melissa.

The best-case scenario for Melissa's impacts seems to be a Delta-esque collapse, from a pinhole Cat 4 to a weakening Cat 2 at its Yucatan landfall (that didn't even warrant retirement).

Absent that... Yeah, Melissa will most likely wreck havoc on someone no matter what, even if the target is unclear.

[Ubuntwo]

Shear in the Gulf will cause weakening if it did somehow make it into the Gulf. When the 40 knot plus flow is to the NW, it will actually evacuate more air and strengthen the system but 40 or 50 knots of shear will tear the system apart, especially since it will be pushing dry air into the storm. I'm not forgetting a high end Cat 2 into the Panhandle in November 1985 (Kate) or Wilma in October but I'm pretty sure it has been 40 years since a Gulf hurricane in November.
https://i.imgur.com/HsjFSx5.png
https://i.imgur.com/jZNTQWa.png

To your last point, I just want to add that we tied Kate's record for strongest Gulf November hurricane on record last year with Rafael.

I don't see any way this gets into the Gulf. But while those upper level winds would destroy a tropical storm or weaker system, a major hurricane would quickly accelerate & move with the flow. The impacts of those upper-level winds are diminished in this case as the system brings it outflow with it. You'd still likely get steady weakening, but it wouldn't be a quick collapse. The shear ahead of Milton was around 60kt, though "effective" shear ended up being more like 30kt due to its outflow and it still managed a cat 3 landfall.

[GCANE]

Seeing an additional consolidation of high TPW air in the EPAC.
Looks like if Melissa gets going, would likely see a second feed across Nicaragua.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[boca]

Seeing an additional consolidation of high TPW air in the EPAC.
Looks like if Melissa gets going, would likely see a second feed across Nicaragua.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

How far west do you think Melissa will go or will it turn NE once at the tip of Jamaica?

[GCANE]

Seeing an additional consolidation of high TPW air in the EPAC.
Looks like if Melissa gets going, would likely see a second feed across Nicaragua.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

How far west do you think Melissa will go or will it turn NE once at the tip of Jamaica?

Can't say at this point with any certainty.
What do you think?

[boca]

I think Melissa will either go over Jamaica or miss to the south and turn west over the weekend than turn NE and scout out due to the second trough that will finally pick her up.

[chaser1]

CODE BLUE!

UNIDENTIFIED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FOUND FLAILING & UNCONSCIOUS. NO VISUAL CIRCULATION DETECTED.
TROPICAL DEFIBRILLATOR REQUIRED - STAT

Where was that from?

From my waking up around 5:00a.m. and astonished by the holy mess being displayed

[TomballEd]

Looks like the LLC wants to run away from the convection again.

[Hurricane2022]

Melissa's LLC appears to be running out from the MLC again for a 3rd time

[jlauderdal]

At first I thought a Jamaica landfall could prevent Melissa from becoming "too strong" (aka a cat 1 or less) before it inevitably strikes a populated area. But with that latest model cycle showing a cat 4/5 Jamaica landfall, I fear we're looking at a lose/lose and it'll be catastrophic no matter what happens. Maybe the best case scenario is a bombing out phase south of Jamaica and missing the island followed by EWRCs weakening Melissa.

Don't discount the effect Jamaica's terrain may have on the intensity and rainfall totals..slow mover can have inflow issues,slow mover mountains yields big rain totals, hurricanes don't like land so they can meander around land masses in spite of the mean flow. There are lots of very sturdy structures that have survived majors, there are lots of zinc roofs too.

[BobHarlem]

Runaway LLC again, looks like it's due south of the eastern tip of Jamaica now?

[aspen]

Runaway LLC again, looks like it's due south of the eastern tip of Jamaica now?

https://i.postimg.cc/2S2Cs3SW/47901760.gif

Looks like it may be at approximately 16N/76.2W, probably rotating within the broader circulation. I have no idea if it’ll tuck back under convection or if a new LLC will establish itself further east.

[cheezyWXguy]

Runaway LLC again, looks like it's due south of the eastern tip of Jamaica now?

https://i.postimg.cc/2S2Cs3SW/47901760.gif

Looks like it may be at approximately 16N/76.2W, probably rotating within the broader circulation. I have no idea if it’ll tuck back under convection or if a new LLC will establish itself further east.

Yeah it’s hard to tell if that’s an eddy orbiting the parent surface circulation or if the mlc is doing the heavy lifting at the moment. Either way the whole cloud canopy seems to be revolving around a common point east of that swirl. With the persistent deep convection in that eastern area I imagine something will happen at the surface there eventually if it hasn’t already.

[Teban54]

Runaway LLC again, looks like it's due south of the eastern tip of Jamaica now?

https://i.postimg.cc/2S2Cs3SW/47901760.gif

Looks like it may be at approximately 16N/76.2W, probably rotating within the broader circulation. I have no idea if it’ll tuck back under convection or if a new LLC will establish itself further east.

Imagine of the number of new LLCs that Melissa forms in its lifetime ends up greater than its peak category number on the SSHWS...

[zzzh]

I don't think the feature running away is the LLC.

[aspen]

I expect the 5pm track will shift a little north, showing either a grazing blow or a direct landfall on Jamaica. I really hope the NHC puts out Hurricane Warnings this advisory.

[Kazmit]

At first I thought a Jamaica landfall could prevent Melissa from becoming "too strong" (aka a cat 1 or less) before it inevitably strikes a populated area. But with that latest model cycle showing a cat 4/5 Jamaica landfall, I fear we're looking at a lose/lose and it'll be catastrophic no matter what happens. Maybe the best case scenario is a bombing out phase south of Jamaica and missing the island followed by EWRCs weakening Melissa.

Don't discount the effect Jamaica's terrain may have on the intensity and rainfall totals..slow mover can have inflow issues,slow mover mountains yields big rain totals, hurricanes don't like land so they can meander around land masses in spite of the mean flow. There are lots of very sturdy structures that have survived majors, there are lots of zinc roofs too.

Beryl last year simply refused to make landfall on Jamaica. Could easily see something similar here.

[LarryWx]

I checked the coordinates as Gilbert passed over Jamaica:

It went from 17.6N, 75.3W to 18.3N, 78.5W over a 12 hour period. Per a lat/long mileage calculator, that’s 216 statute miles, which means a brisk 18 mph. That’s a whopping 6 times faster than the very slow average of 3 mph that Melissa is forecasted to move by the 11AM NHC advisory while adjacent to Jamaica! So, Gilbert held onto its strength while moving right over it at 18 mph.

How would Melissa do moving a mere 3 mph but just south of the island? I don’t see how it wouldn’t weaken some, possibly significantly, at some point during that 48 hour period even if not immediately due to drier inflow from Jamaica.

Opinions?

[MGC]

Interesting to read the next discussion on Melissa from the NHC. Appears the TC is quite disorganized ATM......MGC