NATL: MELISSA - Models

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF is by far the furthest south it’s ever been, showing landfalls along the southern coast of Jamaica as a Cat 4/5.

It’s like the HWRF and HAFS swapped forecast tracks this model cycle.

Big shift on HWRF, much slower.

[Blown Away]

Yikes, Euro 12z gust potential…

[Beef Stew]

If today's trend is to be believed, it's looking increasingly possible (which, given the amount of uncertainty with this storm, isn't saying much) that Melissa will either make landfall (or come incredibly close to making landfall) on Jamaica from the east as she initiates the westerly turn, as opposed to from the southwest following the westerly turn. Should this happen, her ceiling in terms of windspeed may be limited, but the flooding would be beyond catastrophic- Melissa would essentially be parked over the island for 2+ days.

Just to give an idea of the scale of destruction that could cause: it would actually probably be the better scenario if Melissa were to stay over water to the south of Jamaica, bomb into a category 5, and then pass through the island at C4/5 strength while heading northeast at pace...

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/WMJ_wx/status/1981524683347390758

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/BradyBGWX/status/1981507710827774182

[chaser1]

Problem with Tropical Tidbits updating?? I keep trying to check the model 500mb vorticity maps and the analysis time goes back to 10/21 0Z. Tried it with ICON and GFS

[BobHarlem]

0z icon keeps it east of Jamaica and gets to a hurricane then just poofs south of Cuba.
0z GFS is actually east of the 18z, over haiti again. (shows a reform well east of the NHC current position also).
0z Canadian gets west of Jamaica to the south.

Models are so out to lunch on this one it must be 2025.

[kevin]

Every time someone is like 'looks like it's shifting east, south of Jamaica can be ruled out' the next post is 'ensemble shifts west again, no chance this gets north of Jamaica' . Not blaming anyone, the models are really all over the place, I also have no clue what to think.

[Keldeo1997]

EURO with a curve ball shifting Way south and west

[kevin]

06z ICON makes a big jump west and is the first run of the model showing a Jamaica landfall/impact. Whether its south/west shifts will stop here at the Jamaica consensus or will continue to the point of the 00z Euro is of course not possible to determine right now.

[kevin]

06z GFS also makes a big jump west, now in between Jamaica and Haiti and travelling NW. Finally it also doesn't show a Hispaniola landfall anymore. Trend of the last 5 runs:

[kevin]

06z GEFS also shifts SW with the mean now SW of Jamaica at +66hr. The GEFS mean will probably still strike Jamaica as Melissa curves north, but this is definitely more of a swing in the direction of the Euro in terms of track.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z GFS also makes a big jump west, now in between Jamaica and Haiti and travelling NW. Finally it also doesn't show a Hispaniola landfall anymore. Trend of the last 5 runs:

https://i.imgur.com/YUerEe6.gif

06 GFS pulled off the impossible missing all landfalls.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HAFS-A is truly cataclysmic for Jamacia with a Cat 5 crawling along the coastline.

Honestly at this point "best" case scenario for all parties is if Melissa's inner core goes south of Jamacia and bombs out there. That way there's at least opportunity for it to weaken enroute to Cuba, where it'll also be faster.

[kevin]

Well... 06z HAFS-B just loses Melissa, at least for the first 39 hours. At +39hr it's looking at a slightly interesting blob of convection at 69W. Maybe the more large-scale HAFS-B parent will later be able to give useful info.

[ronjon]

With all the inconsistent modeling, it appears to me that the Euro operational has been the most consistent and that other models like the GFS are trending it's way. Still have to see the next few days but Melissa may have painfully exposed the GFS yet again as the less accurate simulation.

[kevin]

At +42hr it's seems to become visible again on the western edge of the HAFS-B view as a meandering TS (while other models already have it nearing MH strength).

[kevin]

Potentially good news for Jamaica, 06z hurricane models show a big shift south. As in a full degree south of Jamaica. Let's see whether they also show Melissa missing Jamaica during the recurve.

[aspen]

Huge downtrend on the HAFS, especially the HAFS-A, which still has a sheared TS out to 51 hours.

[aspen]

All hurricane models are now well south of Jamaica, with significantly reduced intensity estimates out to 48-60 hours compared to prior runs. The HMON is so far the strongest, eventually showing RI into a major SW of Jamaica.