NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[WaveBreaking]

[Travorum]

There's no mention of any sort of ERC in the 03z advisory, meld or otherwise, completed or not. As for the SW motion over the past few hours, the NHC thinks this won't have a significant impact on track in the long run:

Although the eye wobbled a bit to the south recently, this is
believed to be temporary and a more representative initial motion
estimate is about 270/4 kt. The track forecast reasoning is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory.

They also mention peak FL winds supporting 125kts at the surface, despite even the recent FL winds themselves not being above 125kts. Maybe they're referencing the 129kt FL/132kt SFMR winds from the earlier AF recon flight even though they reference the NOAA mission? I'm not quite sure here. The AF recon mission found a SFMR/FL wind combo that supported 125kts but the most recent NOAA mission did not.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
investigating the system ... and peak flight-level winds
support an intensity of 125 kt

[Hurricane2022]

Hot take: another phase of ERI may have just started.

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1982643194988052600

[eastcoastFL]

Let's see if the next overnight mission has winds up and the pressure down. Air Force plane departs at 11:15 PM EDT.

Noob question:

Can we have total confidence in equipment and readings at all times right now? Are the instruments maintained, calibrated, replaced regularly? Does gov shut down or department restructuring affect any of these types of services?

I'm a non academic here, actually I'm a total moron, and if this sort of question is frowned upon, please remove.

But off and on the past few days I've seen mention of equipment issues. I can't pinpoint specific issues because as I said I'm a moron and it was in one ear, right out the other type of thing.

Its a question that has crossed my mind several times over the years but keep forgetting to ask.

I'm sure the equipment is calibrated before and after every flight but it's quite a rough ride going into storms like this so equipment failure is always a real probability.

[Travorum]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/bPj86Np.gif

That uh, that escalated quickly.

[cheezyWXguy]

Let's see if the next overnight mission has winds up and the pressure down. Air Force plane departs at 11:15 PM EDT.

Noob question:

Can we have total confidence in equipment and readings at all times right now? Are the instruments maintained, calibrated, replaced regularly? Does gov shut down or department restructuring affect any of these types of services?

I'm a non academic here, actually I'm a total moron, and if this sort of question is frowned upon, please remove.

But off and on the past few days I've seen mention of equipment issues. I can't pinpoint specific issues because as I said I'm a moron and it was in one ear, right out the other type of thing.

Its a question that has crossed my mind several times over the years but keep forgetting to ask.

I can’t speak for the mods, but I don’t think this is an unreasonable question that would require removal.

That said, I’m confident that if the equipment on these flights were miscalibrated, there would be distinct signs. Considering that there are often two planes simultaneously flying through this storm, each dropping dropsondes, you would see notable discrepancies between the plane readings and their respective dropsondes as they overlap each other’s territory. None of that has been seen in any flights in this storm’s existence though.

[BobHarlem]

Melissa is over 90 degree F (32 C) water right now, may be partly why it's blowing up so much right now. (Lightning around the core is off the charts right now)

[Keldeo1997]

Holy

[cycloneye]

Who is going to stay up and post the overnight Air Force mission? Maybe an historic one?

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 0#p3144680

[Teban54]

I've been watching Melissa the whole day, but of course it started flexing a full -80C/CDG ring just when I went away for half an hour. If the next recon still finds nothing above 125 kt... I'd be speechless.

I’m surprised no one has mentioned its forward speed(or lack of) as one of the factors why the wind speed is relatively low. A hurricanes stronger side is the side with a positive movement vector, the movement of the storm adds to the windspeed. If Melissa was moving 15 MPH, it would likely be a cat 5.

This explains the wind speed but not the pressure, though.

There's no mention of any sort of ERC in the 03z advisory, meld or otherwise, completed or not. As for the SW motion over the past few hours, the NHC thinks this won't have a significant impact on track in the long run:

Although the eye wobbled a bit to the south recently, this is
believed to be temporary and a more representative initial motion
estimate is about 270/4 kt. The track forecast reasoning is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory.

They also mention peak FL winds supporting 125kts at the surface, despite even the recent FL winds themselves not being above 125kts. Maybe they're referencing the 129kt FL/132kt SFMR winds from the earlier AF recon flight even though they reference the NOAA mission? I'm not quite sure here. The AF recon mission found a SFMR/FL wind combo that supported 125kts but the most recent NOAA mission did not.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
investigating the system ... and peak flight-level winds
support an intensity of 125 kt

My guess is that NHC didn't want to explicitly lower the intensity given the landfall threat. In the TCR, I suspect that both the initial Cat 4 upgrade (where the 120 kt was solely based on satellite) and the intensity since the "unofficial eyewall meld" would be lowered.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like Melissa’s about to make a real sprint towards Category 5 now.

[Stormgodess]

Let's see if the next overnight mission has winds up and the pressure down. Air Force plane departs at 11:15 PM EDT.

Noob question:

Can we have total confidence in equipment and readings at all times right now? Are the instruments maintained, calibrated, replaced regularly? Does gov shut down or department restructuring affect any of these types of services?

I'm a non academic here, actually I'm a total moron, and if this sort of question is frowned upon, please remove.

But off and on the past few days I've seen mention of equipment issues. I can't pinpoint specific issues because as I said I'm a moron and it was in one ear, right out the other type of thing.

Its a question that has crossed my mind several times over the years but keep forgetting to ask.

I can’t speak for the mods, but I don’t think this is an unreasonable question that would require removal.

That said, I’m confident that if the equipment on these flights were miscalibrated, there would be distinct signs. Considering that there are often two planes simultaneously flying through this storm, each dropping dropsondes, you would see notable discrepancies between the plane readings and their respective dropsondes as they overlap each other’s territory. None of that has been seen in any flights in this storm’s existence though.

Thank you to you and eastcoast both. Not having the first clue of how this type of equipment is calibrated/maintained, how difficult, or what the cost is... I just wasnt sure.

And yes I can see how having the second dataset from another plane to compare against, would be helpful. I had never thought of that.

Thank you both so much

[eastcoastFL]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1432204914360058018/image-153.jpg?ex=69003444&is=68fee2c4&hm=3d187bfc8ed3186072936d2f43f2cd9f3ae6476c62f0359aa84f2b6c9dbd1835&

Holy

8.0 and it doesn't seem far fetched. It looks like a solid 8.0 right now. Just wow

[Travorum]

ADT Raw T# has hit 8.0 with the recent convective blowup, and the CI# is up to 7.4/152kt, despite actual intensity likely steady around 125kt. I'd also assess Dvorak intensity subjectively at T7.5/155kts from the CMG ring being >0.5 deg latitude, and this assessment is probably 30kts too high. It's an incredible discrepancy even given the late season tropopause height.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 OCT 2025 Time : 024021 UTC
Lat : 16:15:00 N Lon : 77:26:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 908.3mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 8.0 8.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +19.1C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

[Sciencerocks]

This is the most impressive cat4 I've ever seen and most amazingly the recon says that is what it is. Can't argue with direct measurement but it is a puzzle of ones mind.

But I will stay up another 3-4 hours to catch at least a pass to see if current satellite trends finally catch up with surface realities.

[FLpanhandle91]

This feels like an Eta recon pass all over again. Lol. Cold CDO isn't everything folks. Late season Dvorak can be misleading.

[zhukm29]

Best looking Cat 4 I have to say really shows the limitations of Dvorak in late season.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1982647428219015613

[Teban54]

This is a good time for a reminder that Eta 2020 had similarly high Raw T (8.3?), but recon only found 130 kt / 922 mb.

A few differences from Melissa, however:

• Eta's eye never cleared out nearly as much (which led to the hypothesis that eye temperature was a more reliable indicator, especially when compared to Goni a few days before). But Melissa's eye is now among the warmest and smoothest in this basin.
• Technically, Eta's Final T never rose to a level that would significantly exceed its actual intensity, due to constraints. But Melissa had been at Final T 7.0+ for a day now, and may even have time to catch up before the next recon arrives. It's much more direct evidence that ADT can and do run too high (as are all other satellite estimates).
• Eta's recon coverage was spotty all day due to equipment problems, leading to high expectations before the said flight finally made it into the storm. Melissa's recon has been excellent, and we already know ADT's mismatch all day.

Regardless, with Melissa already at 933 mb before the recent developments, it's very likely to exceed Eta's intensity at the minimum.

[zzzh]

This feels like an Eta recon pass all over again. Lol. Cold CDO isn't everything folks. Late season Dvorak can be misleading.

Eta clearly had an EWRC when recon arrived and its pinhole wasn't stable at all. That is not the case here