NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[mrbagyo]

905.6 extrap
161 FL

[kevin]

Wow, still deepening! 905.6 mb extrapolated pressure, 161 kt peak FL wind.

[sasha_B]

Wow, still deepening! 905.6 mb extrapolated pressure, 161 kt peak FL wind.

Not what I was expecting to see after that 5 hPa rise in central pressure between the last two passes. Still deepening & FL winds continuing to pick up!

[Hurricane2022]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

[aspen]

905.6mb extrap. Between its continued deepening and the 155+ kt FL winds and 160+ kt SFMR, I think it warrants an upgrade to 150 kt.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

905.6 extrap
161 FL

At this rate there is room for sub-900 before landfall.

[Blown Away]

With the current track, looks like Jamaica will avoid landfall. Next stop, Cuba instead.

There is a non-zero chance of that happening. It’s unlikely and Jamaica should not plan on that. But Cuba should be prepping for at least a Cat 4 hit in case it misses Jamaica and does not weaken as much as anticipated.

The track has shifted W slightly over past few advisories, it would take a @35 mile wobble W to miss Jamaica with the core. Very unlikely at this point, but it wouldn't take much IMO.

[CrazyC83]

905.6mb extrap. Between its continued deepening and the 155+ kt FL winds and 160+ kt SFMR, I think it warrants an upgrade to 150 kt.

Agreed with 150 kt now, especially if a dropsonde can confirm such.

[Pelicane]

Both of the HAFS models peak this on Tuesday morning. Melissa is already stronger than what those models are showing tomorrow so who knows where the bottom is.

[sasha_B]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

Given the steep deepening trend on this flight & the fact that satellite estimates remain well above Melissa's observed intensity (T7.7 ADT, T7.5 subjective at time of writing), the NHC may be more willing to raise their 18z/21z intensity estimates during the gap. It seems clear at this point that Melissa "intends" to catch up to her appearance.

[ATDoel]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

I'll never understand why they send in two planes at the same time yet have 8 hour gaps between center fixes. 8 hours between flights is absurd in a situation like this.

[BobHarlem]

With the current track, looks like Jamaica will avoid landfall. Next stop, Cuba instead.

unfortunately that's not going to happen, it's pretty much on the NHC track (since 5pm yesterday's).

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982838716977578402

[Teban54]

Both of the HAFS models peak this on Tuesday morning. Melissa is already stronger than what those models are showing tomorrow so who knows where the bottom is.

One caveat -- as I mentioned in the models thread:

On the other hand, IIRC it's not uncommon for the intensities and timings of 1st and 2nd peaks on hurricane models to be "flipped". When Milton formed, the hurricane models generally forecasted its second peak to be stronger than the first. That didn't verify: the actual intensities were 895/155 for the first peak, 902/145 for the second.

[aspen]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

I don’t get why they scheduled such long gaps in coverage for most days. Yesterday’s schedule with AF taking off just as NOAA left Melissa was a lot better and reduced the gap in coverage. 8 hours is too much for a system within 24 hours of landfall; it should be getting as little gaps as possible.

[mrbagyo]

This is going to be like a 50-mile wide tornado where it makes landfall. I’d be looking for a reinforced concrete building or underground basement (outside a flood zone). I’m concerned that their building codes no matter how much they may have improved after Gilbert are going to be no match for a storm of this caliber. Praying for the folks there to be safe.

I'm really concerned about Melissa potentially making landfall near Treasure Beach. There are populated areas immediately east of there that are on cliffs 400m tall right near the coast that would be in the right front quadrant eyewall, and we saw from the dropsondes earlier what the winds look like 400m up.

It would look similar to this (elevated part of Dinadiawan, Aurora in the aftermath of Typhoon Manyi last year - this was an absolutely lush green jungle before the typhoon that you cant even see the coast due to vegetation)

[Hurricane Mike]

12pm Video Update
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgD5Qu4xXkM

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/JeremyDeHartWX/status/1982840670068044004

[chaser1]

With the current track, looks like Jamaica will avoid landfall. Next stop, Cuba instead.

Nope. On its current track, it would probably hit Belize...... in about 2-weeks The odds of that happening are probably less likely then winning the lottery - while getting struck by lightning at the same time.

[TallyTracker]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

I don’t get why they scheduled such long gaps in coverage for most days. Yesterday’s schedule with AF taking off just as NOAA left Melissa was a lot better and reduced the gap in coverage. 8 hours is too much for a system within 24 hours of landfall; it should be getting as little gaps as possible.

I have to remind myself not to tear my hair out in frustration in moments like this. Otherwise I’d be bald by Thanksgiving every year and that would be some frightening pictures.