NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Travorum]

This is going to be like a 50-mile wide tornado where it makes landfall. I’d be looking for a reinforced concrete building or underground basement (outside a flood zone). I’m concerned that their building codes no matter how much they may have improved after Gilbert are going to be no match for a storm of this caliber. Praying for the folks there to be safe.

I'm really concerned about Melissa potentially making landfall near Treasure Beach. There are populated areas immediately east of there that are on cliffs 400m tall right near the coast that would be in the right front quadrant eyewall, and we saw from the dropsondes earlier what the winds look like 400m up.

[chaser1]

Just curious but does anyone happen to know where the Island's primary electrical infrastructure/production centers are located? I would assume relative proximity to Kingston but that's just a guess

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Jamaica

I found this list for production, It looks like by capacity most production infrastructure is located in the two parishes to the west of Kingston (St Catherine and Clarendon), with some capacity in Kingston itself. There are also a few notable production facilities up near Montego Bay. There are several wind farms and a hydroelectric plant near where Melissa is more likely to make landfall in St Elizabeth parish, they produce a little over 100MW combined.

Interesting stuff, thanks. Well, it's possible that the storms core might impact Jamaica's west end more directly and that wouldn't bode well for their Montego Bay power facilities (and especially bad for their tourism industry). Still, it appears that the greater part of their power grid is further east and closer to Kingston. Hopefully that area will be spared the worst wind. Sadly, the storm surge impact there will be extreme. That'll further exacerbate the destruction of their Barge Power facilities near and just east of Kingston. Short of some westward shift miracle, all in all this is going to be a tragic disaster.

Furthermore, where significant elevation changes may provide protection from storm surge and flooding from rainfall, only increases the risk of higher winds with height. I wonder what extent of the high population areas are modernized to the extent of providing high groun with good stablished drainage regions with facilities that ideally would have or be connected to underground electric? Better yet, underground emergency facilities or basement-like shelters.

[ATDoel]

This is going to be like a 50-mile wide tornado where it makes landfall. I’d be looking for a reinforced concrete building or underground basement (outside a flood zone). I’m concerned that their building codes no matter how much they may have improved after Gilbert are going to be no match for a storm of this caliber. Praying for the folks there to be safe.

I don't believe many, if any, of their homes are stick built so that should really help. There's going to be missing roofs but I don't think we'll see an extensive number of homes swept off their foundation from wind like you would in a severe tornado. Now the mudslides and surge on the other hand.....

[chaser1]

I just looked, and there are 202 guests on this thread...wow

Perhaps Bing [BOT] & Google [BOT] brought all their [BOT] friends

Well...it's up to 353 now...that's a lotta bots

We're their analytical mosh pit

[Teban54]

I just looked, and there are 202 guests on this thread...wow

Perhaps Bing [BOT] & Google [BOT] brought all their [BOT] friends

Well...it's up to 353 now...that's a lotta bots

The thread got to 400 guests last night.

[sasha_B]

Lightning is still going wild in the eyewall despite signs that pressure has begun to fill in....I know "fluctuations in intensity" typically means gradual weakening following a high-end peak, but there might be time left for Melissa to rebound even if her intensity levels off or slips temporarily. She is, after all, officially forecast to stay around 145 kts for another 12 hours...

[cycloneye]

Here is a image that all have to archive and screenshot. The eye of Melissa from the NOAA plane that Andy Hazelton was as part of crew.

[Category5Kaiju]

Also, Melissa is the first WCAR Category 5 hurricane we've had since 2007. Melissa pretty much meets the descriptions of the stereotypical "late-season WCAR monster" that wx enthusiasts constantly rave about.

[Michele B]

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1982813591158857799

Does this loop look like Melissa is moving east, or is the orientation upside down??

[TallyTracker]

This is going to be like a 50-mile wide tornado where it makes landfall. I’d be looking for a reinforced concrete building or underground basement (outside a flood zone). I’m concerned that their building codes no matter how much they may have improved after Gilbert are going to be no match for a storm of this caliber. Praying for the folks there to be safe.

I'm really concerned about Melissa potentially making landfall near Treasure Beach. There are populated areas immediately east of there that are on cliffs 400m tall right near the coast that would be in the right front quadrant eyewall, and we saw from the dropsondes earlier what the winds look like 400m up.

That crossed my mind as well. Few buildings can survive 200+ mph gusts at that height. If we had sensors up there it might rival Gustav’s record wind gust in Cuba.

[ATDoel]

https://fr24.com/TEAL76/3cd8177d

NE to SW pass incoming.

hopefully nothing but they disappeared off the tracker as soon as they hit the eyewall....

[TallyTracker]

With the current track, looks like Jamaica will avoid landfall. Next stop, Cuba instead.

There is a non-zero chance of that happening. It’s unlikely and Jamaica should not plan on that. But Cuba should be prepping for at least a Cat 4 hit in case it misses Jamaica and does not weaken as much as anticipated.

[mrbagyo]

905.6 extrap
161 FL

[kevin]

Wow, still deepening! 905.6 mb extrapolated pressure, 161 kt peak FL wind.

[sasha_B]

Wow, still deepening! 905.6 mb extrapolated pressure, 161 kt peak FL wind.

Not what I was expecting to see after that 5 hPa rise in central pressure between the last two passes. Still deepening & FL winds continuing to pick up!

[Hurricane2022]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

[aspen]

905.6mb extrap. Between its continued deepening and the 155+ kt FL winds and 160+ kt SFMR, I think it warrants an upgrade to 150 kt.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

905.6 extrap
161 FL

At this rate there is room for sub-900 before landfall.

[Blown Away]

With the current track, looks like Jamaica will avoid landfall. Next stop, Cuba instead.

There is a non-zero chance of that happening. It’s unlikely and Jamaica should not plan on that. But Cuba should be prepping for at least a Cat 4 hit in case it misses Jamaica and does not weaken as much as anticipated.

The track has shifted W slightly over past few advisories, it would take a @35 mile wobble W to miss Jamaica with the core. Very unlikely at this point, but it wouldn't take much IMO.

[CrazyC83]

905.6mb extrap. Between its continued deepening and the 155+ kt FL winds and 160+ kt SFMR, I think it warrants an upgrade to 150 kt.

Agreed with 150 kt now, especially if a dropsonde can confirm such.