NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Pelicane]

Both of the HAFS models peak this on Tuesday morning. Melissa is already stronger than what those models are showing tomorrow so who knows where the bottom is.

[sasha_B]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

Given the steep deepening trend on this flight & the fact that satellite estimates remain well above Melissa's observed intensity (T7.7 ADT, T7.5 subjective at time of writing), the NHC may be more willing to raise their 18z/21z intensity estimates during the gap. It seems clear at this point that Melissa "intends" to catch up to her appearance.

[ATDoel]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

I'll never understand why they send in two planes at the same time yet have 8 hour gaps between center fixes. 8 hours between flights is absurd in a situation like this.

[BobHarlem]

With the current track, looks like Jamaica will avoid landfall. Next stop, Cuba instead.

unfortunately that's not going to happen, it's pretty much on the NHC track (since 5pm yesterday's).

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982838716977578402

[Teban54]

Both of the HAFS models peak this on Tuesday morning. Melissa is already stronger than what those models are showing tomorrow so who knows where the bottom is.

One caveat -- as I mentioned in the models thread:

On the other hand, IIRC it's not uncommon for the intensities and timings of 1st and 2nd peaks on hurricane models to be "flipped". When Milton formed, the hurricane models generally forecasted its second peak to be stronger than the first. That didn't verify: the actual intensities were 895/155 for the first peak, 902/145 for the second.

[aspen]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

I don’t get why they scheduled such long gaps in coverage for most days. Yesterday’s schedule with AF taking off just as NOAA left Melissa was a lot better and reduced the gap in coverage. 8 hours is too much for a system within 24 hours of landfall; it should be getting as little gaps as possible.

[mrbagyo]

This is going to be like a 50-mile wide tornado where it makes landfall. I’d be looking for a reinforced concrete building or underground basement (outside a flood zone). I’m concerned that their building codes no matter how much they may have improved after Gilbert are going to be no match for a storm of this caliber. Praying for the folks there to be safe.

I'm really concerned about Melissa potentially making landfall near Treasure Beach. There are populated areas immediately east of there that are on cliffs 400m tall right near the coast that would be in the right front quadrant eyewall, and we saw from the dropsondes earlier what the winds look like 400m up.

It would look similar to this (elevated part of Dinadiawan, Aurora in the aftermath of Typhoon Manyi last year - this was an absolutely lush green jungle before the typhoon that you cant even see the coast due to vegetation)

[Hurricane Mike]

12pm Video Update
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgD5Qu4xXkM

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/JeremyDeHartWX/status/1982840670068044004

[chaser1]

With the current track, looks like Jamaica will avoid landfall. Next stop, Cuba instead.

Nope. On its current track, it would probably hit Belize...... in about 2-weeks The odds of that happening are probably less likely then winning the lottery - while getting struck by lightning at the same time.

[TallyTracker]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

I don’t get why they scheduled such long gaps in coverage for most days. Yesterday’s schedule with AF taking off just as NOAA left Melissa was a lot better and reduced the gap in coverage. 8 hours is too much for a system within 24 hours of landfall; it should be getting as little gaps as possible.

I have to remind myself not to tear my hair out in frustration in moments like this. Otherwise I’d be bald by Thanksgiving every year and that would be some frightening pictures.

[rwfromkansas]

I don't follow the tropics much, but this one is a monster. What are the chances of it clipping the far SW side of the island? It seems to still be mostly going west. No real north turn yet, and each advisory just "moves" the turn just a little bit west. Much further west and it will be wrong again...

[michelinj]

Given the current plane took off from Curacao, could we get one more pass in on it's way back south? Or will it just land wherever is closest to it's current position?

[Ubuntwo]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

The current flight has a 17:30z fix requirement, so they're good for another pass. The next fix requirement is 23:30z. That's still a 6 hour gap but not quite as bad.

[mrbagyo]

Given the current plane took off from Curacao, could we get one more pass in on it's way back south? Or will it just land wherever is closest to it's current position?

looks like the AF plane made a turn inside the eye and went north then west. Might go for one last NW-SE pass before heading home to Curacao

[kevin]

Feedback some the recon team itself seems to indicate that an eyewall merger already took place this morning and that the current structure of Melissa shows no indication of a new EWRC.

Melissa will likely continue intensifying for the time being at its current rate of 2 - 3 mb/hr until an EWRC starts. With about 7 hours until the next center pass this means Melissa could reach 884 - 891 mb within that time span which is possible with the current MPI and definitely supported by its satellite appearance. The main question will be whether Melissa can hold off another EWRC for another 7 hours and whether it'll be a race against the clock. I remember a similar case with Milton with people thinking recon missed its peak due to an EWRC only for the place to measure a sub-900mb pressure. One hour later it was already at 'only' 904 mb though due to the ongoing EWRC so it can be a range against the clock.

[zzzh]

This is CRAZY

[Fancy1002]

Based on recon, Melissa is already as strong or stronger than Katrina at her peak, and she still has excellent conditions over the next 18 to 24 hours to strengthen even more. The only thing that can stop her now is an eyewall replacement cycle.

[Iceresistance]

Feedback some the recon team itself seems to indicate that an eyewall merger already took place this morning and that the current structure of Melissa shows no indication of a new EWRC.

Melissa will likely continue intensifying for the time being at its current rate of 2 - 3 mb/hr until an EWRC starts. With about 7 hours until the next center pass this means Melissa could reach 884 - 891 mb within that time span which is possible with the current MPI and definitely supported by its satellite appearance. The main question will be whether Melissa can hold off another EWRC for another 7 hours and whether it'll be a race against the clock. I remember a similar case with Milton with people thinking recon missed its peak due to an EWRC only for the place to measure a sub-900mb pressure. One hour later it was already at 'only' 904 mb though due to the ongoing EWRC so it can be a range against the clock.

Andy Hazelton said there's just enough shear to prevent an outer eyewall from even forming
 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982843734564950258