NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Keldeo1997]

No double wind max

[aspen]

No Cat 5 FL winds in the SE eyewall. Perhaps Melissa peaked during or shortly after last flight and internal dynamics have triggered slight weakening since? Very odd pass overall.

[kronotsky]

Latest eye drop showing 114kts at the surface? That feels too low unless I’m missing something. She’s definitely weakened a touch but that seems a little extreme

Edit: Another with 99kts so definitely something not quite right in that eyewall

Pressure from both sondes in the 950s at the surface – unless we think that Melissa is a 940.mb storm, it's safe to assume that those drops missed the eyewall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

CDO cooling again. A new deepening phase might be about to begin.

[hipshot]

Latest eye drop showing 114kts at the surface? That feels too low unless I’m missing something. She’s definitely weakened a touch but that seems a little extreme

Edit: Another with 99kts so definitely something not quite right in that eyewall

Pressure from both sondes in the 950s at the surface – unless we think that Melissa is a 940.mb storm, it's safe to assume that those drops missed the eyewall.

When they drop those sondes inside the eye, how do we know where they actually windup. I guess they have a means to transmit their
position but as strong as those winds are, good luck!

[Travorum]

Here's the eye dropsonde, also supports 910mb:

[Beef Stew]

Data from that last pass seems odd all around. While I don’t doubt she’s weakened some since earlier (I personally think she may have peaked, at least initially, approximately ~2 hours after the AF plane left), I’m waiting for another pass before I’m sold on this much of a reduction for FL winds.

[eastcoastFL]

Latest eye drop showing 114kts at the surface? That feels too low unless I’m missing something. She’s definitely weakened a touch but that seems a little extreme

Edit: Another with 99kts so definitely something not quite right in that eyewall

Pressure from both sondes in the 950s at the surface – unless we think that Melissa is a 940.mb storm, it's safe to assume that those drops missed the eyewall.

When they drop those sondes inside the eye, how do we know where they actually windup. I guess they have a means to transmit their
position but as strong as those winds are, good luck!

They dropped one last night in the NE eyewall and it landed on the western side of the storm.

[michelinj]

CDO cooling again. A new deepening phase might be about to begin.

I think it’s just the sunset causing that effect to be honest. I’ll be surprised if she deepens at the moment but can’t say for sure of course

[cheezyWXguy]

Data from that last pass seems odd all around. While I don’t doubt she’s weakened some since earlier (I personally think she may have peaked, at least initially, approximately ~2 hours after the AF plane left), I’m waiting for another pass before I’m sold on this much of a reduction for FL winds.

Agreed, I think the FL measurements seem plausible but these dropsondes all seem…weird? 45% RH on drop 2 in the cdo? No T/Td spread in the eye drop? Odd…

[Beef Stew]

I do think that it’s entirely possible that some of the perturbations we’ve seen on imagery these past few hours are from another eyewall meld, but it’s impossible to say for sure. If we can get a TDR image we’d possibly have a better idea.

[zhukm29]

This is definitely one of the more p*ssed off looking hurricanes I've seen in the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/JFxYQC8.png

Totally understandable since every previous iteration of Melissa has been a shortie that never made it to hurricane strength. I’d be upset too if every iteration of my existence was a letdown/failure of some sort (weakest named storm of 2007 even among multiple other 35kt systems, forgettable subtropical system to cap off the infamous 2013 season, and the one to break the formidable M-named cat 5 streak in 2019)… must be a lot of pent up anger lol

Must have been how Beryl felt also with one of the longest streaks of failing to become a hurricane

[michelinj]

Latest eye drop showing 114kts at the surface? That feels too low unless I’m missing something. She’s definitely weakened a touch but that seems a little extreme

Edit: Another with 99kts so definitely something not quite right in that eyewall

Pressure from both sondes in the 950s at the surface – unless we think that Melissa is a 940.mb storm, it's safe to assume that those drops missed the eyewall.

That’s true, I still think the winds have eased just a little, would be consistent with the FL winds, pressure readings and IR over the last couple hours

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the WV loop you can see the trough coming to get it. The turn should happen very soon

[eastcoastFL]

Still a very compact wind field and a very powerful tiny storm overall.

[Beef Stew]

Data from that last pass seems odd all around. While I don’t doubt she’s weakened some since earlier (I personally think she may have peaked, at least initially, approximately ~2 hours after the AF plane left), I’m waiting for another pass before I’m sold on this much of a reduction for FL winds.

Agreed, I think the FL measurements seem plausible but these dropsondes all seem…weird? 45% RH on drop 2 in the cdo? No T/Td spread in the eye drop? Odd…

Yeah, very odd. Odd enough that I don’t think we can make anything of them until we have another set of drops to compare them to.

[Beef Stew]

Still a very compact wind field and a very powerful tiny storm overall.

She’s a Caribbean Milton.

[Hurricane2022]

It's happening again. Let's see how ADT (over)reacts to it

[SteveM]

Looking at the WV loop you can see the trough coming to get it. The turn should happen very soon
https://i.imgur.com/X9CGtX8.gif

Yes, it looks like some movement to the east, a northerly component might be about to be introduced too.

[BobHarlem]

Diurnal pink donut time again (Dvorak frosting). Cyclonic loop likely done, nne motion to begin soonish.