NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[michelinj]

Latest eye drop showing 114kts at the surface? That feels too low unless I’m missing something. She’s definitely weakened a touch but that seems a little extreme

Edit: Another with 99kts so definitely something not quite right in that eyewall

Pressure from both sondes in the 950s at the surface – unless we think that Melissa is a 940.mb storm, it's safe to assume that those drops missed the eyewall.

That’s true, I still think the winds have eased just a little, would be consistent with the FL winds, pressure readings and IR over the last couple hours

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the WV loop you can see the trough coming to get it. The turn should happen very soon

[eastcoastFL]

Still a very compact wind field and a very powerful tiny storm overall.

[Beef Stew]

Data from that last pass seems odd all around. While I don’t doubt she’s weakened some since earlier (I personally think she may have peaked, at least initially, approximately ~2 hours after the AF plane left), I’m waiting for another pass before I’m sold on this much of a reduction for FL winds.

Agreed, I think the FL measurements seem plausible but these dropsondes all seem…weird? 45% RH on drop 2 in the cdo? No T/Td spread in the eye drop? Odd…

Yeah, very odd. Odd enough that I don’t think we can make anything of them until we have another set of drops to compare them to.

[Beef Stew]

Still a very compact wind field and a very powerful tiny storm overall.

She’s a Caribbean Milton.

[Hurricane2022]

It's happening again. Let's see how ADT (over)reacts to it

[SteveM]

Looking at the WV loop you can see the trough coming to get it. The turn should happen very soon
https://i.imgur.com/X9CGtX8.gif

Yes, it looks like some movement to the east, a northerly component might be about to be introduced too.

[BobHarlem]

Diurnal pink donut time again (Dvorak frosting). Cyclonic loop likely done, nne motion to begin soonish.

[crimi481]

S.W. wobbles. Melissa créating own environment

[zzzh]

Eye temp continues to drop. It's been dropping since 18z.

[zzzh]

D. 912 mb
E. 165 deg 27 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C10

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1982950752562844105

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Still a very compact wind field and a very powerful tiny storm overall.

She’s a Caribbean Milton.

The width of her eye is similar to what I remember reading about the size of the Labor Day hurricane’s eye. Wonder how they compare size-wise

[cheezyWXguy]

At first I thought the slight weakening might be due to another meld ongoing, but I’m not seeing any evidence of that. So now I’m wondering if it might be due to the increasing influence from the trough to the west trying to put a hard stop on its westward progress. I do recall the hafs earlier showing some slight weakening around this time, followed by a rebound after northward movement commenced and the storm motion aligns with the new mean flow. I’d be very happy if no rebound did occur, but I am curious if this is what we are seeing.

[WaveBreaking]

Now almost completely stationary on meso.

[michelinj]

At first I thought the slight weakening might be due to another meld ongoing, but I’m not seeing any evidence of that. So now I’m wondering if it might be due to the increasing influence from the trough to the west trying to put a hard stop on its westward progress. I do recall the hafs earlier showing some slight weakening around this time, followed by a rebound after northward movement commenced and the storm motion aligns with the new mean flow. I’d be very happy if no rebound did occur, but I am curious if this is what we are seeing.

That’s an interesting theory, could very well be right. The HAFS and other hi-res models are capable of picking out such fine details, remarkably. Let’s see!

[aspen]

At first I thought the slight weakening might be due to another meld ongoing, but I’m not seeing any evidence of that. So now I’m wondering if it might be due to the increasing influence from the trough to the west trying to put a hard stop on its westward progress. I do recall the hafs earlier showing some slight weakening around this time, followed by a rebound after northward movement commenced and the storm motion aligns with the new mean flow. I’d be very happy if no rebound did occur, but I am curious if this is what we are seeing.

I was thinking the same thing about the trough, although the slight weakening on the HAFS runs also seemed to be due to an eyewall meld.

[Hurricane2022]

[Zonacane]

I think everybody is overreacting to a steady state storm

[Teban54]

I think everybody is overreacting to a steady state storm

I would agree with you if not for the pretty significant drop in FL winds from the last pass, though. (I know that I could eat crow at any minute with the next pass on the way.)