Ivan Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Weather Conditions at ZF1RC, South Sound, Grand Cayman
Thanks to whomever posted this link yesterday to local weather observations in Cayman: http://www.weatherincayman.com/
it was interesting to re-load every 10 min yesterday and watch the pressure steadily drop and the rain totals go up. the winds fluctuated but i saw gusts up to 29 mph before going to bed. so this morning i wake up & reload it and here's what it says:
(as of 6:40 am, local time):
<b>Wind: </b> ENE at 51.0 mph -- ok, that i can believe
<b>Barometer: </b> 979.2 mb Falling Rapidly -- this too
<b>Today's Rain: </b> 56.72 in -- huh? can the equipment just not handle heavy rainfall?
In any case, I thought I'd post since it's indicative of local conditions and I haven't seen much here on that topic in a while...
it was interesting to re-load every 10 min yesterday and watch the pressure steadily drop and the rain totals go up. the winds fluctuated but i saw gusts up to 29 mph before going to bed. so this morning i wake up & reload it and here's what it says:
(as of 6:40 am, local time):
<b>Wind: </b> ENE at 51.0 mph -- ok, that i can believe
<b>Barometer: </b> 979.2 mb Falling Rapidly -- this too
<b>Today's Rain: </b> 56.72 in -- huh? can the equipment just not handle heavy rainfall?
In any case, I thought I'd post since it's indicative of local conditions and I haven't seen much here on that topic in a while...
0 likes
Ixolib wrote:mobilebay wrote:abajan wrote:Seems like they've been downplaying that trend since Ivan formed! I mean, remember when it was forcasted to slam into Barbados?
THANK YOU!!! That's what I was trying to say earlier.
Good morning, Mobile... I've come to rely on your extensive research and posting on the models - and I've also see you get bashed several times for your persistence (that's ashame). But I'd like to thank you for the updates!! This AM, what's your read on things for us in the central gulf?
Well with each model run the models trend further west. the only exception to this is the GFS, and BAMM. Wich has been making noresters out of his the entire track. The only thing I can think is the NHC must remember they missed to the left with charley and frances.
0 likes
- BayouVenteux
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 775
- Age: 63
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 3:26 pm
- Location: Ascension Parish, Louisiana (30.3 N 91.0 W)
IMHO, possibly because they have strong indications in their sampling of the environment to the west and north of Ivan of the upper level steering winds that will turn the storm more to the NW, in keeping with their forecasted track. In the 8 a.m. intermediate advisory, they state "A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS." Don't want to get into semantics too much, but notice the absence of the word "GRADUAL"? In my 20+ years of following the NHC advisories on storms, usually this type of statement telegraphs a fairly high degree of confidence on their part, at least in the near-term, of a storms forecasted motion.dwinpcola wrote:looking at the models and I am uncertain why NHC moved the path further east since last night when the models have shifted more west.
guess time will tell
0 likes
Early season storms that pass through Hebert's Box #2 generally end up going west and north. Later season storms that pass through, like Irene, have a greater chance of affecting SE Florida: http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... 03box.html
0 likes
mobilebay wrote:Ixolib wrote:mobilebay wrote:abajan wrote:Seems like they've been downplaying that trend since Ivan formed! I mean, remember when it was forcasted to slam into Barbados?
THANK YOU!!! That's what I was trying to say earlier.
Good morning, Mobile... I've come to rely on your extensive research and posting on the models - and I've also see you get bashed several times for your persistence (that's ashame). But I'd like to thank you for the updates!! This AM, what's your read on things for us in the central gulf?
Well with each model run the models trend further west. the only exception to this is the GFS, and BAMM. Wich has been making noresters out of his the entire track. The only thing I can think is the NHC must remember they missed to the left with charley and frances.
NHC didn't miss with either Charley or Frances as both were in the forecasted cone. What I can't understand here is how people think Ivan is going to bust thru and go against the Westerlies that are clearly establlished in the GOM.
0 likes
- charleston_hugo_veteran
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1590
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:47 pm
- Location: Charleston, S.C.
Re: Ivan passing through Herbert box #2?
shorrock wrote:Isn't Ivan passing through the #2 Herbert Box?
Hebert box
0 likes
Do you see a pattern? Ivan keeps tracking west...
and south of the NHC forecast. It's been this way for days and days now.
This thing is going to slam into the Yucatan while we all await the phantom turn to the north.
This thing is going to slam into the Yucatan while we all await the phantom turn to the north.
0 likes
jwelch5 wrote:Caneman, where would you go to look at the westerlies visually? Newbie here and trying to learn as I see new concepts.
Water Vapor loop, try this. Set to 15 and hit animate.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
0 likes
major damage now at cayman
a caller on wfor tv from Cayman is reporting that buildings and a shelter has lost its roof and water is coming into a shelter
0 likes
Ivan speeding up
WNW over the last 15 hrs. with wobbles NW and W but the speed concerns me. That northerly turn will be harder to take place at speeds above 10 mph.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145516
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Looking at the track this morning still I think that at least a hurricane watch for the Yucatan Penninsula is needed just in case Ivan deviates more to the west than forecasted.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Do you see a pattern? Ivan keeps tracking west...
logybogy wrote:and south of the NHC forecast. It's been this way for days and days now.
This thing is going to slam into the Yucatan while we all await the phantom turn to the north.
You're right!! Westward Ho... And others share your view. Interesting discussion and links: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44211
0 likes
Re: Do you see a pattern? Ivan keeps tracking west...
logybogy wrote:and south of the NHC forecast. It's been this way for days and days now.
This thing is going to slam into the Yucatan while we all await the phantom turn to the north.
thats a "short term west wobble" , that has lasted for over 350 miles

0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145516
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
12:00 Models
http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
They are changing with every run and in this 12:00 one they did the same but not a huge change in the tracks from the 6:00 run.
They are changing with every run and in this 12:00 one they did the same but not a huge change in the tracks from the 6:00 run.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest