TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[Brent]

Thread 1 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88466

Thread 2 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88600

Thread 3 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 27&start=0

Thread 4 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 49&start=0

Thread 5 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88695

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not saying one way or the other for sure, but this is looking more and more like it has its eyes on Mexico, not to mention the fact that the last discussion said that track changes may need to be adjusted on the next update, and I"m assuming adjusting it westward, as they commented on the ridge building in the central gulf. This may be fantastic news for the Gulf states!!

[ericinmia]

I just got up.... Why is the GFDL still putting this in the straits of florida?

[bvigal]

Chatting, chatting, chatting!! Katrina, work schedules, vacations, media, etc. don't belong in this thread. ANALYSIS, SAT PICS, MODELS. Please post speculations (versus fact-based analysis) about future track to thread titled
"Ok folks.. Place your bets.. where's #5 going?"
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88653

[fci]

I'm not saying one way or the other for sure, but this is looking more and more like it has its eyes on Mexico, not to mention the fact that the last discussion said that track changes may need to be adjusted on the next update, and I"m assuming adjusting it westward, as they commented on the ridge building in the central gulf. This may be fantastic news for the Gulf states!!

Yes, indeed.

Best case (besides dissapating which seems less likely) is a trip west to Mexico which it sounds like is becoming more and more an option.

[Aquawind]

Give me a VDM and then we can talk path..

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm curious what Derek and the other Mets think about more of a westward path, which is what the last discussion mentioned? The next advisory might show a complete reversal of what we are seeing now.

[skysummit]

Give me a VDM and then we can talk path..

Yea, no joke! How about we stop talking about potential landfalls and talk about what's presently going on. People are saying Mexico because the models shifted west again. Well, guess what....the models will likely shift east again. Heck, they might even turn northeast toward Florida later, who knows! Bottom line, it's way too early to tell, but at least we do know it'll be in the Carribean for the next day or two.

[jasons2k]

Looking at the visibles, there's little doubt in my mind when recon arrives they will find the LLC has relocated under the convection and we'll have a healthy TS. The outflow is improving and the west side of the storm is less elongated than earlier (it's more symmetrical). It appears to be wrapping-up nicely.

[Lowpressure]

Give me a VDM and then we can talk path..

Yea, no joke! How about we stop talking about potential landfalls and talk about what's presently going on. People are saying Mexico because the models shifted west again. Well, guess what....the models will likely shift east again. Heck, they might even turn northeast toward Florida later, who knows! Bottom line, it's way too early to tell, but at least we do know it'll be in the Carribean for the next day or two.

Maybe we should worry about JAMAICA first.

[ConvergenceZone]

Give me a VDM and then we can talk path..

Yea, no joke! How about we stop talking about potential landfalls and talk about what's presently going on. People are saying Mexico because the models shifted west again. Well, guess what....the models will likely shift east again. Heck, they might even turn northeast toward Florida later, who knows! Bottom line, it's way too early to tell, but at least we do know it'll be in the Carribean for the next day or two.

sky, what I'm saying isn't based upon the models, it's based upon the latest discussion from the NHC, besides speculation is fun

[Blown Away]

Good point w/ the political pressure associated with the >96 hour tracks. But maybe TD5 is slowing considerably, the 5am had it moving at 20mph, the 11am has it moving at 15mph and said the center may actually be S and E of that position, which tells me the it would be less than 15mph. I know they predicted TD5 to slow over the next day, but it appears pretty significant slowing from 20 mph.

[Thunder44]

I'm not saying one way or the other for sure, but this is looking more and more like it has its eyes on Mexico, not to mention the fact that the last discussion said that track changes may need to be adjusted on the next update, and I"m assuming adjusting it westward, as they commented on the ridge building in the central gulf. This may be fantastic news for the Gulf states!!

I think we should wait to see where recon finds the center this afternoon, before we say it's where it going to more likely than the other. I understand what TPC is doing not upgrading this storm to a TS yet, but I don't understand why a plane wasn't in this storm already this morning. Would of cleared up things sooner then waiting all day to find out.

[MiamiensisWx]

Not to bash the NHC, but I'm a bit puzzled as to why this wasn't upgraded to Ernesto at the 11AM EST advisory/discussion. This system is rather similar to Alberto in terms of LLC location relative to the main mass of convection and is more structurally organized than Alberto, as both are evidenced on this visible loop which indicates a possible LLC VERY close to the main convective mass, yet Alberto was upgraded under similar, or even less impressive, structure and synoptics, yet this was not. Even while being on the more conservative side, I still see rather plentiful divergence, banding, turning, and organization that strongly suggests an LLC very close to the main convective mass, as evidenced on visible and water vapor imagery. With convective bursts and gradual organization, I personally believe we may be looking at what may be already Ernesto. NOT bashing the NHC or disagreeing with their synopsis; however, it is still puzzling why, with this more substantial evidence, why we are not seeing Ernesto yet. Even waiting for RECON doesn't quite explain it in this case. It is also surprising why RECON hasn't gone in earlier.

[MWatkins]

This is an extension from the other thread...just saw this question:

MWatkins wrote:
Looks like we will not have a TS at 11AM...going to have to wait for recon which will fly in the next forecast cycle (this afternoon). I would guess they are waiting to see if the deep thunderstorms are over the center as opposed to sitting on the northeastern edge of it.

MW

What makes you come up to that conclusion.

Dr Beven provided far more detail than I could have anyway...just basing the decision on how hard it was to locate the center and the contridictory information we have...typically the NHC will wait on something like this since recon is heading out anyway.

Besides...the question they answered is...what difference does it really make whether this gets named now or 6 hours from now?

MW

[skysummit]

Well, I guess since the recon mission was so close, they'd rather wait....JUST IN CASE they didn't find TS winds (which I HIGHLY doubt it), they wouldn't look like they jumped the gun. Recon should be leaving within the hour!

[HURAKAN]

I would guess that since the RECON mission is just a few hours away from the storm, and the system is not a threat at the moment, and you are not sure of its surface structure, then it's logical to just wait to see what the RECON finds.

[canes04]

As I mentioned yesterday, TD5/Ernesto is slowing down.
The ULL should lift out and the high should build in over the WC.
We could see a major cane in three days!!
Question for the Mets, is it possible this storm becomes stationery
in the WC with weak steering currents? If so, all bets are off with
the future track.

[Sanibel]

Power out all morning here. Just got our power back on. See #5 blew up with black-topped IR last night! Whew!

It is in a pulse down right now and probably changing gears in preparation for another ramp up. I don't think it is shear related. The 280*-285* course is keeping it under the worst shear. In fact I think the fast shear just to its north vented it - partly inducing the blow-up.


Real trouble down stream. This one has thick convection in the untapped Caribbean.

[MiamiensisWx]

I would guess that since the RECON mission is just a few hours away from the storm, and the system is not a threat at the moment, and you are not sure of its surface structure, then it's logical to just wait to see what the RECON finds.

Yep... that's most likely the case. Still, under this circumstance and the points I mentioned above, it is still somewhat unusual that this was not bumped up to 35KT at 11AM EST.